New Year's Weekend Recap:
A rather up-and-down-and-slightlydown trifecta of days that left us with a tremendous conclusion to 2010, and a rather sluggish start to 2011.
More specifically, we had a perfect 3-0 sweep on Friday, with 2 wins in NBA and 1 win in CFB; an 0-2 clunker Saturday, losing a small NBA freebie and CFB Big play (a true rarity this year); and as we speak, a rather mediocre Sunday is wrapping up, but I hope everyone listened to the advice I put in all my writeups and played everything for ultra-small amounts on the weird final week of the season.
All in all, not my finest work, but ended the NFL Regular Season plus-money; ended CFB regular season plus-money; we're plus-money in CFB Bowl plays, and plus-money in the NBA. Can't ask for much more than that, can we?
Promo Weekly Section:
Last week we featured the Monthly Flex Package, and a few people took advantage of that great deal -- a smart call, since you get every play I release for the price of about 8 days' worth of picks.
This week, we'll rotate the feature spotlight back to the DAN BEBE WEEKLY PACKAGE
... it's not quite the same discount as the monthly Flex, but it's still pretty darn good. A full 7 days of every play for anywhere from $80-to-100, depending on discounts. So, conceivably, a week for the price of 4 days. And, with as hot as we ended December, buying every day is nuts when you can get a nice deal!
And, as always, the daily stuff -- Monday's daily package will contain an NBA Best Bet! We lost half a unit in NBA yesterday, but coming back today with a 2* Paid Play, and still on a solid 12-5 NBA stretch, with the last 2 losses each for less than 1 unit, so big profits are piling up!ADD NBA MONDAY 2* BEST BET to CART! (plus potential BONUS CFB play!)
And for the love of Pete, keep telling friends about the podcast, and read the entire blog, not just the leans!
Sports Wagering: NBA
Miami Heat (-9) @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of 192;
The Bobcats really had 1 high scoring game under the new up-tempo offense of Paul Silas, and the last two games have just been sloppy. Yes, they beat the hapless Cavs, but a home loss to the Warriors in a relatively low-scoring game (all things considered) bodes somewhat poorly for a showdown with the Heat. Miami beat Charlotte by 8 earlier this year at home as a 12-point favorite, so this number is pretty steep, but maybe warranted. The Bobcats are pretty darn bad, and Miami has won, now, 18 of 19 games, and aren't showing any signs of slowing. They play tremendous pick-and-roll defense, and I have no idea how Charlotte plans on scoring outside of some minimally functional isolation plays. This line is absolutely inflated, but I want no part of the Bobcats while they're in transition - PASS on the side, tiny lean to the OVER.
Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic (-10.5) with a total of 209;
Something I'm going to try to do, and I know I've said this a thousand times, is organize my thoughts on these games. So, from this point forward, a plan I'm sure to deviate from before the week is done, I'm going to try to start the writeups with a quick assessment, then break down schedule, situational, and matchup angles in that order. The reason I go into detail on this one is that there really aren't any particularly interesting schedule angles, not much in the way of situationals, and matchup-wise, the only note is that Orlando has been scoring a ton, and defending a bit less. Also worth noting is that the Warriors just put up a monster effort in Miami, only to come up short, and Orlando has won and covered 5 straight. I'm not stepping in front of that freight, though I must admit, I do have a soft spot in my heart for the Warriors. Lean to the MAGIC, barely, and the total may sneak to about 211, so I guess, OVER, but probably a pass.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics with a total of N/A;
We've seen Boston struggle on the second half of back-to-backs this year, and Minnesota is playing pretty well, but can they take the effort on the road? I must admit, I'm not excited about Minnesota playing away from home against a very strong defensive team. Scheduling-wise, Boston is obviously in the tougher spot, playing a back-to-back off a Sunday game in Toronto, while Minnesota is well-rested, and confident. Situationally, not much to speak of, though Boston is hosting San Antonio on Wednesday, and maybe there could be a hair of looking ahead. I'm inclined to doubt that plays a role. Minnesota has been able to get off to quick starts against good teams, and often blows the lead late, so given the fact that we'll likely see a number in this one up around double digits, that would put them in a decent spot. Small lean to the T'WOLVES and the OVER.
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Hornets (-6) with a total of 188;
I think we're going to see a fair amount of Sixer money at this price, or perhaps more split than people think, since Philly has covered a handful of spreads on the road even without Andre Iguodala. And given New Orleans has really played some amazing defense in their two road games, I have to think they bring that same intensity to the floor, at home. The single biggest angle in this game comes from the scheduling side, though. Philadelphia is set to play the final game of an eight game road trip, and I would be wildly surprised to see them play with any sort of moxie in the second half of this one, especially if the Hornets D-up like they have been. Philly went a very solid 5-2 ATS on this long road trip, but this is an awful spot, and New Orleans was only gone from home for 2 days. Lean to the HORNETS and pretty strong to the UNDER.
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A;
Strangely, Utah has been a little screwball offensively over the last week. It could very well be the Holidays, and the lack of good egg nog in no-alcohol country (this is a joke...), but more than likely, it's just a small team slump. Detroit, meanwhile, suffered an ugly loss in Phoenix, the Pistons' first awful performance in quite some time, amazingly. Detroit heads to LA tomorrow to battle the Lakers in what's sure to be a gigantic spread, but what we've seen from the Pistons is that they are just plain awful on the second half of back-to-backs, and often fairly serviceable when rested. I'm curious to see where this line comes out, though I'm not sure I have enough confidence to back Detroit against a good team with almost any number of points. And considering Utah is in the better scheduling and situational spot, this just feels like a nice, cool PASS on the side, and a glance at the UNDER on the total.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5) with a total of 218;
Don't look now, but Denver has played defense in 2 straight games...or did they just get lucky and face teams that couldn't shoot? That, to me, is one of two big questions in this game. Obviously, if you feel Denver actually played some defense, then 6.5 isn't too much. Also, with Houston playing in Portland late Sunday night (an hour earlier for Sunday, but still pretty darn late), and then traveling into altitude, Denver should be able to count on Houston missing just a few more outside shots than usual. The rather short spread (considering the back-to-back) is mildly disconcerting, though. I suppose it's important for us to step back and realize that the Rockets recent ATS winning ways have catapulted them back into bettors' minds, and they're getting more respect, as a result. And, amazingly, Denver is only 3 games better SU than Houston, despite the Rockets' poor start. Let's see how Houston does in Portland, but a hard-fought, close game would almost guarantee a play on NUGGETS, and those tired legs should hurt Houston's outside shooting, and I think this one squeaks UNDER.