We are coming from a good night, as we had a 4-0 sweep. I’ve waited
more than the usual to release my final update because I was expecting
to get some info about Corey Maggette’s injury and without him my
projected line for that game (Warriors/Rockets) was -9.5/12 and so, we
would have had a play on the Rockets. Unfortunately, the confirmation
was known later and it was a pass. Some notes about yesterday:
- Raptors guard Jose Calderon was limping to the locker-room early
in the fourth quarter, as he apparently stepped on teammate Jarrett
Jack’s foot. His status for tonight is uncertain.
- Even without Jameer Nelson and Mikael Pietrus, the Magic didn’t
have any problem to spank the Bucks for an easy win for us. Vince
Carter is back?!? He had probably his best game of the season by
shooting 7-15 FG, scoring 17 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing
out 7 assists.
- The Cavs showed why they have the best paint defense in the league
by shutting down the Grizzlies to just 34 points in the paint. I
remember that Memphis is averaging 51.6 points in the paint.
- The Bulls had a tremendous letdown against the Clippers at home,
while Chris Kaman showed that without him, his team can’t simply win
any ballgame or even compete for it.
- I’ve watched the second half of the Hawks/Thunder game and in my
opinion it was one of the best games of the season! Only 17 total
turnovers for the whole game and two huge performances from Kevin
Durant and Joe Johnson.
- Maggette didn’t play last night against the Rockets. His status
for today: “Corey Maggette did not play Tuesday with a hip pointer, but
according to the Warriors’ television crew he could have if necessary.”
Pace: 91.0 (30th of 30)
Offense: 107.6 (5th of 30)
Defense: 104.2 (17th of 30)
Pace: 95.7 (15th of 30)
Offense: 106.4 (8th of 30)
Defense: 101.5 (9th of 30)
I’ve decided to release early this play, as with the current line of
198 points, according to my projected line, we have a 5-points edge (my
real line is 193 points) and so, we have the proper edge to take the
Under regardless any prior line movement. I wouldn’t discard to upgrade
this play later into a Double Dime Play if 1) the line movement pushes
up the line opening a 2 full ball possessions edge for us or 2) the
referee’s crew is a strong “under” crew.
What we have in here is in my opinion an over inflated line due to
several reasons: The Trail Blazers are a hot “Over” team as 6 of their
last 7 games ending up being “Over”; the Jazz are riding a 6-game
winning streak and the public perception is that they are playing a
killer offense averaging 109.3 points per game during the streak…but
they are playing as well great defense and also the first two games of
the series ended with 200 and 201 points and so, the oddmakers were
forced to push up the line.
This series has been an extreme slow paced series and only
exceptional shooting performances can put the Under in danger. That
happened with the Jazz as in the first two meetings they have shot
above 60% from the field in each contest and literally spanked the
Blazers. Note that in the first game the Blazers had a terrible spot
for that game by playing in back to back nights and in the last game
the Jazz started 22-2 and they never look back, while the Blazers had
to push the pace after such early hole.
In my opinion the Blazers have all the conditions to perform better
on the defensive end. First of all, Carlos Boozer is out for tonight
and he was a “Blazers killer” in the first 2 games by combining 16-21
from the field, 17 rebounds and 7 assists. Paul Millsap is a good
player but he does not have the size and length of Boozer. Also the
Blazers have now Nicolas Batum and Rudy Fernandez perfectly
accommodated into the rotations and they provide the Blazers some
missed size and length on the wings. We all know that the Blazers don’t
have the same presence in the paint and they were already lacking some
defensive presence on the wings. Nate McMillan was forced some times to
bring Miller, Bayless and Blake to the court at the same time and we
talking about 3 players with 6’3’’, 6’2’’ and 6’3’’! The Jazz game plan
relies heavily into cuts and off screeners from their forwards and
facing the Blazers was too easy for them. In the last game against the
Bobcats, the Blazers showed some signs of good defense by shutting down
a hot team like the Bobcats to just 79 points.
Speaking of the Jazz…they are playing some brilliant defense as of
late! It’s easy to praise their offense, but their defense has been the
real highlight lately. In their 6-game winning streak for only once
they allowed their opponents to reach the century mark in points – 115
points from the Suns, but even in that game, the Suns were held to just
46 points in the second half. Last game against the Mavericks, the Jazz
showed their good defense in the final quarter by holding Dallas to
just 16 team points.
According to my numbers, I have a line of 192/195 points for this
contest and so, we have the proper edge to take the Under in here and I
don’t discard the possibility of an upgrade.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 198