Even though there are some amazing articles
about how to manage a betting account all over the Internet, I've decided to
give my personal opinion about this subject, which I consider to be as
important as winning our bets, as if we make a terrible management over our
betting account, we will put in danger about great run we may have and having
in account the risk of this business, that's something we should avoid at any
cost.
On my approach over betting sports, I have three vital points that I'll explain
in a resumed way, in order for everybody to understand the importance that this
subject deserves by everybody who wants to make some money on this business.
The first point of my approach on how to manage a sports betting account is to
realize how complex and hard it is to be successful on this business. First of
all, we are talking about a financial investment with a risk I rate as high
(having in account it can return a very high profit, but also some tough
losses). So, sports betting should be taken as seriously as any investment you
make in a financial agency of high risk and there is no way someone should put
their savings on this type of business. My advice is to create a portfolio of
different investments with low and high risk, so your investments are in a
equilibrated mode and not being subject to the flotations of results.
So, it's important to talk about the nature of this investment. Just like the
investment funds, the best way to get profit from sports betting is always long
term, as it allows the investor to not be so dependent from certain tendencies
of a winning streak or a series of defeats in a row, as trying to guess when
they are going to start or end is like trying to guess the lottery numbers.
Having in account that in the point spread bets, we need to bet 110 to win 100,
the realistic long term goal for an handicapper is to have a success rate
between 55% and 62%, with the enrichment of the betting account helping in
order to have a reasonable return in the future.
Let's now talk about the second vital point, which involves something much more
practical: choose our bankroll and the way how we are going to manage it. After
having chosen which will be our initial bankroll (and we need to have in
attention what I said in the previous point about our portfolio of our
investments), it's also very important to select the % of my bankroll for each
bet. In my particular case, I give to my bets three different categories, which
variate with the confidence I have in each one. The more confidence I have in
one bet, the biggest is the possibility of me raising the stake to an higher
percentage of my bankroll. In my opinion, the following is the best way to
define the percentages for our bankroll:
SINGLE DIME = 3% of the initial bankroll
DOUBLE DIME = 5% of the initial bankroll
TRIPLE DIME = 7% of the initial bankroll
American Concept:
So, using as an example, with an initial
bankroll of $10,000 and a dime line (-110):
SINGLE UNIT = 3% of the initial
bankroll = $330
DOUBLE UNIT = 5% of the initial
bankroll = $550
TRIPLE UNIT = 7% of the initial
bankroll = $770
If you get a low juice line, for example, -105, then your wager would be the
following:
SINGLE UNIT = 3% of the initial
bankroll = $315
DOUBLE UNIT = 5% of the initial
bankroll = $525
TRIPLE UNIT = 7% of the initial
bankroll = $735
Again, when you end up a day with a profit of 20/3 units, 20% of profit of our
inicial bankroll, you recalculate the UNIT amount.
For a dime line and with a wagering bankroll now worth $12,000:
SINGLE DIME = 3% of the new
bankroll = $396 ($360 + $36)
DOUBLE DIME = 5% of the new
bankroll = $660 ($600 + $60)
TRIPLE DIME = 7% of the new
bankroll = $924 ($840 + $84)
However, when you get a low vig line of -105, then these are the stakes to
wager:
SINGLE DIME = 3% of the new
bankroll = $378 ($360 + $18)
DOUBLE DIME = 5% of the new
bankroll = $630 ($600 + $30)
TRIPLE DIME = 7% of the new
bankroll = $882 ($840 + $42)
Your next "updating" point would be when you reach the $14,400 USD.
Or, heavens forbid, you drop down to the $10,000 USD.
Wagering always to win, lay to win, seems a little bit more complicated than it
really is, but when you grasp the concept, you'll find out that it has nothing
complicated. There are several offshore sportsbooks who offer to their clients
bot ways to wager: to win or to risk.
Several of my european costumers already use this kind of approach, lay to win,
since their winnings are a little higher than those provided by the
"risking method" usually used in Europe. It is up to you to use the
one you feel more confortable with. ;)
European Concept
So, using as an example, with an initial bankroll of $10.000:
SINGLE DIME = 3% of the initial
bankroll = $300
DOUBLE DIME = 5% of the initial
bankroll = $500
TRIPLE DIME = 7% of the initial
bankroll = $700
After defining the confidence I give to my picks, we guarantee two important
things for the future. Our investment is now directed to long term, with the
%'s decided, we can be sure that the return of the investment will be in long
term and the risk won't be as high as it would be in short/medium term, having
in account the bankroll on this way will be able to handle some losing streaks.
We have now arrived to the last point of this article, which is the one I find
to be more complex. The point is to find the best answer for the following
question: "When is the best time to change the stakes, having in account
we are already accumulating profits/losses, so we can maximize our profits or
to minimize our losses?"
The answer to that question is complex, especially because we can't predict the
future. The perfect answer would be to the raise the stakes when we knew we
were about to have a winning streak and reduce it when we knew we were about to
have a losing streak, but obviously that's an utopia and unreal. My answer for
this question points to a Break-Even Point on the 20% of profit over the
initial bankroll. The same is to say that if we say with an initial bankroll of
$10.000, we would just adjust the %'s when our bankroll reaches $12.000. At
that time, we would make some adjustments on the stakes per unit, just like
this:
SINGLE DIME = 3% of the new
bankroll = $360
DOUBLE DIME = 5% of the new
bankroll = $600
TRIPLE DIME = 7% of the new
bankroll = $840
The explanation is actually simple for this way of re-adaptation. In relation
to what were the initial stakes of our units, in each 5 picks, we will be
betting in an "extra pick", as initially in 5 bets (Single Dimes), we
would have to bet $300 x 5 = $1500. Now with the new stakes, our bet would be
$360 x 5 = $1800, so that's like "adding" a bet in relation to our
initial bankroll, but with the great advantage of that extra amount being
divided in 5 different picks, which guarantees us a bigger stability in our
investment (the same happens in a situation of loss). So with this, we assure
the profits we are going to get will be used in reapplications without taking
big risks and avoiding the possibility of losing very quickly the profits that
took us a long time to win.
This way of managing a bankroll is associated to a long term success rate of
55% - 62%, which allows us a return that possibly you won't be able to get in
any other kind of financial investment and I hope this has helped you, in order
to improve the way you manage your sports betting account.
After this, it's time for me to wish you good luck on your bets and in the
management of your investments!