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Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

This is an important game for the Nuggets, as the Nuggets were spanked at home against the Magic and this is a huge revenge game for them. They bounced back nicely yesterday in Miami after a brutal loss suffered in New Jersey. Actually the 44 points loss against the Nets was a classic letdown spot, as they had previously beaten the Thunder and the Wizards, so facing a superior class team, the letdown spot was evident. The most important thing is that they made a bounce back game against Miami even though they allowed the Heat to made a comeback in the third quarter.

Meanwhile the Magic are 2-2 L4 games and we really don't know what this team is worth without Jameer Nelson. I mean, after the absence of Nelson they played 3 games: they defeated easily the Clippers by 125-96 in a no business game, as the Clippers love to be spanked; then they lost in Indiana by 102-107 despite being 7 points favorites and in the last game, they spanked at home the Nets, who had spanked the Nuggets by 101-85. But I have to say that the Nets were without Vince Carter in that game and if you know decently well the Nets, you know that he is the heart and the soul of that team.

For me it's crucial to compare what will be this game when compared of the last one between these teams played late in January. First of all, the Magic were carrying a huge momentum. That game was the last game of a West Coast road trip and the Magic had already beaten the Spurs and the Lakers. For today this momentum is "gone"! Also Carmelo Anthony didn't play that game. Carmelo since the return is averaging a nice mark of 23.8 ppg. Of course Nelson is out for this game and in that game he was a huge factor by scoring 23 points (9-15 from the field) and 5 assists and in my opinion, the most relevant factor is that Nene Hilario played an awful game against Howard. Nene played only 17 minutes before he got ejected and connected only 2-10 FG (we are talking about the best % FG player of this league!). I won't expect such a dismal performance from Nene today. I'm not saying that Howard will have a bad game at all, but at least I believe that Nene will be a hell of an opponent.

The Magic already lost at home against some West power teams like Portland, Houston or Dallas and I think the Nuggets have a shot to win this game. Billups usually make great games against them and we will see a fired up team tonight. The great part of this conversation is the fact that Denver is a heavy dog in this contest and definitely they shouldn't deserve so many points and that's why I'm taking them in here.

Regular Play on Denver Nuggets (+7,5)

Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Bobcats

I really like the way Larry Brown is implementing a new style on his team. The Bobcats might not be the most talented team of this league, but one thing we can be sure of them is that they will fight for each ball, as that's what Larry Brown's teams do. After a bad stretch of results, where they lost 6 consecutive games, they won their last game by 94-73 against a hapless Clippers team. The low score outcome is representative of the intentions of Larry Brown: the Bobcats want to turn each ballgame into a dogfight and keep the numbers down, after all without Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell, how can this team compete in wild open games against teams with more talent than them?

In their last game, the Bobcats despite shooting 52% from the field and making 27 assists, they scored just 94 points. In normal conditions, these numbers would be more than worth a team reaching the century mark in points. Or what about their last road game in Miami? The Heat ended the game by shooting 56% from the field and made 23 assists for just 8 turnovers, but still they made only 96 points!

Right now the Bobcats' bench is composed by only defensive minded players: center Cartier Martin, Nazr Mohammed and Alexis Ajinca. The only exception is Vladimir Radmanovic. Besides that, center DeSagana Diop is starting at center which shows the importance for Larry Brown of their defense.

Today they will face the lowly Wizards, who once again got spanked in their last game. They lost by 90-111 at Atlanta and one curious stat is that they scored 22 points in fast breaks; we are talking about almost 25% of the total outcome. This won't happen today as the Bobcats are the fourth best team in stopping the FB's points (only Detroit, Boston and Portland have better numbers). If that wasn't bad enough, the team's flight from Atlanta to Charlotte for tonight's game was delayed because the plane broke down.

Lately the Wizards allowed a huge number of points in some games: 124 vs Denver; 117 vs Indiana or 111 @ Atlanta, but once again the Bobcats don't want that kind of game, I have to say that the Under is 4-1-1 in Bobcats last 6 games against a team with a winning % below .400. After being spanked last night, I expect a bettor effort defensively from the Wizards, as they are 21-7 Under after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in this series this season and the common factor is that both games were low scoring games: 152 and 181 points. I think that this contest won't be different and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.

Regular Play on Under 188

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors

The Spurs are in a roll right now and now that Andrew Bynum is injured maybe this team maybe can compete against LA. They won 10 of their last 12 games and there is a pattern lately with this team. This pattern is related with the totals. Look, they had a streak of 5 consecutives overs, then they had a streak of 5 consecutive unders and lately they are in a streak of 7 consecutive overs, easy right? During this "over machine" the Spurs only once failed to reach the century mark points and it was against Denver ? the game that their big stars didn't played, so if we remove that game the Spurs averaged 108.1 ppg during this span!

This streak has a good reason to exist: not only the big three Duncan, Parker and Ginobili is playing great, but also the role players Roger Mason and especially Matt Bonner streaking hot lately. Now the Spurs don't have only three reliable scorers, but 5 players who are reaching double digits numbers! Bonner scored 22 points in Boston (8-10 FG) and yesterday he made 23 points for a 10-17 FG performance. So, I don't think this good offensive run will stop tonight in Toronto because the Raptors can't challenge anyone defensively.

Toronto finally snapped their 6 games losing streak by winning in Minnesota against a team who were without their best player for the first time this season. The Raptors shot 53.1 % from the field and made 27 assists for just 12 TO. This was a big game for them, as they had only shot 29.5 % against the Memphis in the previous contest when they scored just 70 points.

Now they return home to face a top team and this combination usually results in high scoring games, not only because the Over is 5-2 in Raptors last 7 games back to back games and lately they allowed 115 points to the Lakers, 113 points to Orlando or 117 points against Phoenix. With the Spurs so hot offensively lately, I doubt that the Raptors can stop the Spurs tonight. I think the game will end with more than 190 points scored and with us having the opportunity to bet in a line below that mark is a great deal for us. Take the Over in here.

Regular Play on Over 189

Los Angeles Lakers @  Utah Jazz

Maybe this game is a trap game and the Lakers will have a huge letdown in this contest, but the last time they have such possible scenario they won in Cleveland while being 4.5 points underdogs and all the headlines appointed for an easy win to the Cavs and gladly I took the Lakers in that game.

For this game I believe the spot is the same and my explanation will be practically the same of that game. When powerful teams have the "momentum" they are very tough to beat, it doesn't matter if they are healthy or not or the opponent is claiming revenge. If that game turns into a ballgame, the team with momentum will surely win the game because their confidence is sky high. That's why the Lakers beat the Celtics and the Cavs; That why the Magic beat the Spurs, Lakers and Denver in a road trip this season and that's why in the last season the Celtics swept the Texas triangle when everybody expected a Celtics' letdown in each single game! The Lakers had a busy week last week in a powerful road trip and beat the Thunder yesterday by 105-98 in a game that clearly they didn't put their A effort.

The Jazz meanwhile remains a great team when playing at home but when can't compare this team to what they did last season. The reason is simply: they are banged up and without Boozer and Kirilenko they don't have the weapons to compete against Gasol and a rejuvenated Lamar Odom. To make things even worst Millsap is not at his best: "My knee won't allow me to do certain things on the court," Millsap said. "I wouldn't say it's a wall because my conditioning is good and my mental focus is there."

I understand that they are 20-6 SU at home this season, but if you look to their schedule you will see that their last 3 home games against power clubs ended all with losses for the Jazz. They lost by 100-106 against the Spurs; they lost by 97-102 against the Cavs and they lost by 94-103 against the Magic. The Lakers are definitely in that category. I think that the Jazz are overpriced in here taking in account that they aren't powerful home team that they used to be in the last season. Take the Lakers in here.

Regular Play on Los Angeles Lakers pk