2009/10 Review:

The Dallas Mavericks were the winners of the trade deadline last season when they acquired Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood from the Washington Wizards and many pundits predicted them to be the second best team in the West. The truth must be told: they finished the regular season with a 55-27 record and with Butler and Haywood in the team, they went 22-6 - a whopping 78.5% winning percentage confirming that second seed spot for the playoffs, but they got owned by the Spurs in 6 games in the First Round of the Western Conference.

Statistically speaking, this was a bizarre (and splendid) season for the Mavericks because they were just an above average team! I just don’t remember of a team that has won at least 55 games during the regular season despite having the 10th best offense, the 12th best defense and being only the 24th best rebounding team in the league at the same time! In fact a quick look in the Teams’ Points per Game Differential rankings last season and we can see that the Mavericks had the worst differential amongst the Western Conference teams that went to the playoffs (+2.7ppg)! With all the teams that went to the Playoffs, only the Bulls had a worst point differential at home: +2.22!

If the Mavericks had their struggles to win by a safe margin, then we can assume that they won a lot of close games and indeed they won: 21 of their 55 wins were by 6 or less points and 6 of them were by 3 or less points. In games decided by 6 or less points the Mavericks went 21-7! Dirk Nowitzki had his share in being clutch as according 82games.com he was third in the league in clutch production behind only Lebron James and Kobe Bryant.

The problem is that the Mavericks couldn’t be clutch when it matters count: the playoffs as 3 of their 4 losses against the Spurs were by single digit points and their poor perimeter defense was exposed by the Spurs guards.

It was another year wasted for Dirk Nowitzki and his friends as like the Spurs, the window of winning a Championship is closing fast if not already closed a couple of years ago.

2009/10 Advanced Stats:

Pace 15th 95.8
Offense 10th 106.6
Defense 12th 103.8
Rebounds 24th -1.16

2010/11 Outlook:

Projected Depth Chart:

PG: Jason Kidd, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jose Juan Barea
SG: Caron Butler, Jason Terry, Dominique Jones
SF: Shawn Marion, DeShawn Stevenson
PF: Dirk Nowitzki, Alexis Ajinca
C: Brendan Haywood, Tyson Chandler, Ian Mahinmi

The Dallas Mavericks for sure will be one of the most veteran teams this season, as we all need to look for their projected starting lineup to notice that all their starters are all on the wrong side of 30 – Jason Kidd is 37, Caron Butler is 30, Shawn Marion is 32, Dirk Nowitzki is 32 and Brendan Haywood is 30! Plus their 6th man Jason Terry is 33 years old so there’s little room for player’s improvement for this team: it’s all about finding the right team chemistry and execution down the stretch.

As usual General Manager Mark Cuban did everything trying to improve his team. Never be afraid to spend money if it helps the team: this season Cuban’s had a $84 million payroll to afford and he did some changes this offseason and the Mavericks were involved in some rumours in the free agency that result in nothing.

Because the Mavericks will have to beat the Lakers if they want to win a Championship, Cuban’s focus was to find somebody that can protect Nowitzki’s defensive liabilities against the likes of Gasol, Bynum and Odom and he found Tyson Chandler from the Hornets.

Dallas decided to not give Erick Dampier another chance and picked Chandler to compete with Haywood for the center position. After two breakout seasons in New Orleans, Chandler is coming off two consecutive injury riddled seasons, the last one in Charlotte. We can’t expect him to be a dominating defensive force like he was in 2006-07 when he averaged 12.4 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 2006-07, but he is reportedly healthy, he played well for Team USA this summer and maybe this will be a bounce back season for Chandler. Nevertheless the Mavericks also have Brendan Haywood to compete for the starting center spot and on the paper this looks to be the best center rotation in the league! After being traded to Dallas, his numbers decreased a bit, but he was still solid averaging 8.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in 26.5 minutes with the Mavericks.

Now the Mavericks have two solid defensive centers that will have to share minutes, fouls and…some defensive protection to Dirk Nowitzki! With 32 years, Dirk Nowitzki is still an offensive force in the league due to his unprecedented shooting range for his stature. Last season he was the 9th most valuable player in the league according Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating and he was lethal than ever on the offensive end averaging 25.0ppg while shooting 48.1% from the field and also hitting 91.5% from the charity stripe line. There’s no reason to think that Dirk will have a subpar (offensive) season due to his advanced age just because his shooting skills won’t disappear…ever. The problem is on the other end of the floor as Dirk’s rebounding numbers have been on the decline for the sixth consecutive season. He was never known for being a top defender in the league and his age will prevent him to be more energetic on the defensive end. Note that he will play 16 games against the likes of Tim Duncan, Luis Scola, Zach Randolph and David West and right now it is easy to undertstand why Marc Cuban desperately tried to improve the depth and the quality of the center position.

Jason Kidd will once again run the show in Dallas and despite everyone has predicted his end over the last couple of years the fact is that the 37-year-old Point Guard hasn’t slowed down much yet. Kidd is coming from another solid season in which he averaged 10.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 9.1 assists, 1.8 steals and 2.2 3-pointers while shooting 42.3% from the field – his 3rd best mark in his career and 42.5% behind the arc – the best mark of his career!

After being traded to Dallas, Caron Butler fit nicely in the system and averaged 15.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game. Against the Spurs in the playoffs he dipped his numbers to 19.7ppg and 5.8rpg, so if he can remains healthy through the season the Mavericks have a legit offensive thread behind Dirk Nowitzki, something that Josh Howard couldn’t be in the last years for the organization.

Jason Terry will lead the team coming off the bench and like usually, he will be one of the contenders for the sixth man award at the end of the season. He can help the team only on the offensive end, as last season he averaged 16.6 points per game however for the first time in Dallas he’ll have some competition to be the 6th man by youngster Rodrigue Beaubois, who saw only 12.5 minutes per game for the Mavs, but showed some interesting flashes for the future including a 40-points game against the Warriors. Unfortunately he may miss the start of the season due to a broken left foot.

If we added Jose Barea to the mix, the Mavericks have a talented offensive backcourt, but they also have one of the biggest weaknesses: size and defensive deficiencies. The San Antonio Spurs abused them last season by using the speed of Parker, Ginobili and Hill against the slower Dallas guards. Jason Kidd isn’t quick enough against the young blood in the league; Jason Terry isn’t big enough to guard elite players and Barea and Beaubois aren’t either. This fact might be irrelevant during the curse of the regular, but in the playoffs when the matchups can dictate the outcome of the series, the Mavericks might have a big mismatch to handle.

Shawn Marion was the Mavericks offseason biggest addition last year and despite not being able to post anymore his impressive numbers back with the Suns and Steve Nash he still had a relatively solid season by averaging 12.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting above 50% from the field. His role on the offensive end is now an opportunistic role: grabbing some offensive boards and score some points when he is left open. This is what we can expect from Marion nowadays.

With such deep and talented roster, a 50-wins season is almost an automatic achievement for the Mavericks. We can count them to have a high seed in the West and they will have some impressive wins against top caliber teams, however in the Playoffs they’ll have to find some way to find their weaknesses or else a young and energetic Thunder might cruelly expose them.