tough to write much when you have HAAS and WEIR on your card like i did last week, so i just let it hang and thankfully HAAS held on like his usual HAAS like style. good god he makes it tough to watch and root for.
anyway, got a 1u winning week to stop the bleeding, WEIR i had to play just because of his old history on the course rotation and figuring that his recent history wasnt too reflective of what his current game is due to the events he opened for 2016, and at 1000/1 why not, but he didnt fare any better at a familiar venue. so will think twice before i go down that road with WEIR for as much as i admit i was a fan of his back in his better golf days.
on to the NORTHERN TRUST OPEN where RIVIERA really features itself for just being difficult all around. 0 water on the course which to me is always a great indication that if you dont have any water hazards on your course and a par71, and PGA pros are having a tough time making it past -10 after 4rds, then you have a tough course. the greens have alot of false edges that you have to be dialed in with your iron game and if and when you do miss the green, the short game just as dialed with the inconsistent fringes that can come off hard or soft when the ball lands. just about every hole but 1 i can say is a possible double bogey hole, which is crazy to think because again, there are no water hazards.
need an all around blend to win this week on this course so tough to say where 1 advantage is, mostly would figure course history matters as i doubt you have seen any 1st timers at this course go on and win. curious if there have been. i had a writeup written where i dont like SPIETH or MCILROY this week as both seem just a tad off in their relative terms, but MCILROY playing at this course for first time is big disadvantage vs SPIETH which in tour mu, i had to go with SPIETH. then DJ the next fav outside those 2 is very tempting, while i dont take too much into account for last weeks play by him, because he played with SPIETH all 4 days and GRETZKY and those big crowds, but i just have hard time trusting him on this finishing back9 considering his weekend history in the past year. outrageous hes only won once in the last 40+ events hes played in. tough to think it comes this week though his history is good on this course.
outside of those 3, tough to go with the next group of favs as # not as appealing to back, then comes to SCHWARTZEL who won in a commanding finish at a very familiar event to him last week at TSWANE OPEN, but the way he finished gives confidence in him playing well this week and keeping up the grind that RIVIERA demands. to go with him will also go with JONEs who has plodded along so far in the early going in 2016 making 4/4 cuts, and you are looking for players who can make the cut obviously every week, but this week at RIVIERA, for those that do make the cut most likely will play the back9 first on SATURDAY in the best conditions possible more than likely, and much like SNEDEKER at TORREY, while those were much different conditions than forecasted this weekend, the thing that got overlooked was his incredible putting that day, which he started 2hrs before the leaders did. greens are perfect when you are first out, especially those in california. so again, if you can make the cut, job well done and on the weekend who knows how RIVIERA will treat some of these players. never a surprise to see an 80 out of someone. will also add DONALD as hes still looking for that thing that can push him over the edge again like it did for him a couple years ago when he was #1 in the world. has good history on this course and while he missed a cut earlier at CAREERBUILDER, hard event to really keep up if you arent a super low kind of guy like DONALD is.
with spattering of rain on THURS, looks like rest of week will be dry and will make RIVIERA will play extra tougher. figuring winning score around -7, leaning it to being worse, maybe even worse than -5.
NORTHERN TRUST OPEN(-4.82u)
30/1 C. SCHWARTZEL(.5u) -- to win L (t45)
100/1 M. JONES(.5u) -- to win L (mc)
125/1 L. DONALD(.5u) -- to win L (t45)
2.6/1 C. SCHWARTZEL(.5u) -- top10 L
6/1 M. JONES(.5u) -- top10 L (mc)
8/1 L. DONALD(.5u) -- top10 L
spieth(-115) / mcilroy(1u) -- tour mu L (mc - t20)
garcia(-115) / watson(.5u) -- tour mu L (mc - 1st)
steele(-135) / sullivan(.5u) -- tour mu W (t39 - t68)
kaufman(-110) / s. w-kim(.5u) -- tour mu L (mc +6 - mc +2)
harman(-110) / lahiri(.5u) -- tour mu L (t72 - t39)
d. johnson(+115) / mcilroy(.5u) -- 1st rd mu L (68 - 67)
watson(ev) / d. johnson(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W (68 - 69)
choi(-120) / chappell(.5u) -- 4th rd mu W (69 - 76)