last week was brutal, seemed like everytime i checked my phone to check the matches, seemed like someone was making a putt on 1 of my plays. WOODLAND specifically anyway, lose 2u for the week, FURYK had his chance against MCILROY, while it may have not made a difference, FURYK made a silly mistake on 18, which he wasnt the only 1 who made a poor decision or didnt execute late vs MCILROY, give credit to MCILROY who applied the pressure on his opponents, but they certainly didnt step up late vs him, had their chances too.
this week THE PLAYERS allows that chance late with par 5, 3, and 4 finish. just a matter of executing under the pressure, but a long way between then and now. would think the better form you have, ala SPIETH/MCLIROY will make you the auto favorite, but this course over the span of 69holes will get you before that finish. if it doesnt get you before the final 3holes, you still have your work cut out for you.
so with that said, its hard to really back a player as low as SPIETH and MCILROY at 7/1 and really feel confident, big difference between this weeks course and AUGUSTA NATIONAL at the MASTERS. while there may be a connection between SPIETH falling short in last years MASTERS and then going on to win this year, may be the same outcome for SPIETH this week as he shot a 74 in the final round last year to finish t4, but this week again its up to SPIETH to keep executing the shots called for like he did at AUGUSTA. plenty of experience for SPIETH at this SAWGRASS course so i give him the nod over MCILROY, which im playing, but again i just cant back SPIETH at 7/1.
so if not those 2, then we certainly cant talk about anyone else can we? seems like all the talk are on those 2, rightfully so, but thats tough to keep up on this SAWGRASS course and with them being paired with each other and to throw DAY in as well the first 2days, more added to this week then just them playing as well as they have been. tough break for DAY, 0-3 last week after the let down the week before at ZURICH, and then few weeks before my pick at the MASTERS was just all over the place, so with that said, have to think hes in for another let down in this big group, of course he'll prove me wrong and be striping his DRIVER down the middle. you cant get away with missing the fairway too often this week, this course again will get to you if you arent able to get the preferable lie you want to get at some of these greens. with these 3, they have the uncanny TIGER scrambling ability, yet like any other player that plays this game, it adds more pressure on your game when you keep missing the fairway from the start off the tee.
aside from WOODS 2 years ago, last 5 winners havent been your favorite coming into THE PLAYERS. with the likes of KAYMER last year, KUCHAR year before WOODS, CHOI and CLARK, all were outside 40/1 to win the week. so its worth a look around.
speaking of WOODS, i like the play of CASEY on this SAWGRASS course as he is spotty off the tee, but seems like he is managing his game well and playing within himself, so while i dont think it will be a great week for CASEY, should be another solid week, and for WOODS its up to his DRIVER and long game on this much tighter SAWGRASS course compared to AUGUSTA. im sure his course knowledge played alot into his success at MASTERS, but at SAWGRASS this course seems to change like the wind over the years. weird piece of land.
THE PLAYERS(+1.67u)
31/1 H. MATSUYAMA(.5u) -- to win L (t17)
50/1 Z. JOHNSON(.5u) -- to win L (t13)
70/1 K. NA(.5u) -- to win L (t6)
3.3/1 H. MATSUYAMA(.5u) -- top10 L
5/1 Z. JOHNSON(.5u) -- top10 L
5.5/1 K. NA(.5u) -- top10 W
casey(-125) / woods(.5u) -- tour mu L (wd - t69)
willett(-115) / de jonge(.5u) -- tour mu L (mc - t63)
henley(+110) / snedeker(.5u) -- tour mu W (t24 - mc)
westwood(+115) / watson(.5u) -- tour mu L (mc - t42)
c. hoffman(+105) / mcdowell(.5u) -- tour mu W (t30 - t56)
kisner(-120) / watney(.5u) -- tour mu W (t2 - mc)
matsuyama(-120) / walker(.5u) -- 1st rd mu W (67 - 71)
spieth(+145) / mcilroy / day(.5u) -- 1st rd 3ball P (75 - 69 - 69)
mcilroy(-140) / scott(.5u) -- 3rd rd mu W (70 - 75)
field(+110) / garcia -- to win PLAYERS *live W