Lloyd Christmas said:
One more question Jon/Mike. Right now Donald is U70.5 in the first round has a true line of about +115 at 5dimes. I could make a few bets at one of my books and give myself U69.5 +200. How much do you think each half stroke is worth?
wow lloyd, great question -- but sadly i dont have an answer for you. a thought to figure it out----could you find two guys head to head in round 1 that are both -110 or -115 (depending on the juice)....then find the same two guys in a 3ball bet, that factors in the tie. that would give the value of them having the same score....figure there is maybe a 5 to 10 stroke gap that is a likely 'tie' range for those two golfers....so you difference in H2H vs 3ball and divide by some factor (5-10) and get the value of a stroke that way? i know its not exactly correct....im just throwing out ideas...hopefully it sparks you to think of a way to calcuate it.
another way to do this would be to find a few books who have different lines -- its not nearly as exact since books may both have O/U 71 and have different prices...but if you find a few that list 71 and some that offer 70...we can at least see the different juice. in the end though, the value of that one stroke is not a 174% difference IMHO. Before making this play though, I would check the weather Wed nigh -- as Donald may struggle if the course plays very long with lots of wind. I do think you get much more value at 69.5 with the +200 on under though. Let me know if you think of another way to figure out the value of a half stroke.