Lloyd,
Considering the following Prop bet:
Brady over 500 yards: $100 wins $2,500 (25 to 1)
Manning over 500 yards: $100 wins $3,500 (35 to 1)
In the history of the NFL, no QB has thrown for over 500 yards in a Superbowl. The current SB record is held by Kurt Warner at 414 yards in SB XXXIV with the “Greatest Show on Turf” team. The record books cover the QB’s with the most 300+ yard games and +400 yard games, not +500. Now while Tom Brady has passed for 517 yards this year vs. Miami on Opening Weekend, it is the only time in his career he has accomplished this feat. Those folks in Miami witnessed something very rare. The chances of you seeing a 500 yard passing game is about 1/10th of 1%. Only 11 QB’s since 1951 have eclipsed the 500 yard mark and only 4 since 2000.
Sept. 28, 1951 – Norm Van Brocklin, Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Yanks
27 of 41 for 554 yards and 5 TDs
Oct. 28, 1962 – Y.A. Tittle, New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins
27 of 39 for 505 yards and 7 TDs
Dec. 26, 1982 – Vince Ferragamo, Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
30 of 46 for 509 yards and 3 TDs
Oct. 13, 1985 – Phil Simms, New York Giants vs. Cincinnati Bengals
40 of 62 for 513 yards and 1 TD
Oct. 23, 1988 – Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
35 of 60 for 521 yards and 3 TDs
Dec. 16, 1990 – Warren Moon, Houston Oilers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
27 of 45 for 527 yards and 3 TDs
Nov. 10, 1996 – Boomer Esiason, Arizona Cardinals vs. Washington Redskins*
35 of 59 for 522 yards and 3 TDs
Nov. 5, 2000 – Elvis Grbac, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders
39 of 53 for 504 yards, 2 TDs
Nov. 19, 2006 – Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals
37 of 52 for 510 yards and 2 TDs
Dec. 20, 2009 – Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
29 of 46 for 503 yards and 3 TDs
Sept. 12, 2011 – Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
32 of 48 for 517 yards and 4 TDs
So my question to you is what odds would you need to get to make this bet.