2* - Ashleigh Barty -4.5 (-140)
2* - Ashleigh Barty wins 2-0 Sets (-137)
2* - Ashleigh Barty ML (-430)
Barty has still not dropped a set this tournament and hasn’t even dropped more than four games in a set yet. She only lost four games once (when she played Anisimova).
In fact, she’s only lost games 21 games so far in the entire tournament. More than just hitting her spots serving and clamping down on big serves, Barty’s backhand slice has been giving opponents fits. The shot skids through the court, giving opponents massive problems getting clean strikes at the ball. She also does a great job of keeping opponents from attacking and drawing short balls from that slice.
Barty is serving too well for her serves to be dispatched, and I have no doubt her slice could perplex Collins to the same extent as her previous opponents, especially given they’ll be playing in the evening where her slice sits even lower in the court.
Barty’s topspin grounstrokes aren’t so bad either, as she hits with a remarkable combination of depth, power, and placement around the court.
A player like Barty forces opponents to beat her with their weakness, so Collins’ forehand will be put to the test. And while she is still powerful on the forehand side, she does lose some accuracy, and Barty will find a way to extract errors.
Collins will find it hard to dictate play from the baseline, as Barty’s variety will take Collins out of her comfort zone. The Aussie can employ shorter slices, angled groundstrokes, perfect volleys, or deep and powerful groundstrokes which force Collins to be in a defensive position on the court.
It’s hard to imagine Barty not covering a 4.5-game spread here. She’s covered 4.5 games in all 10 matches she’s played this season, her game is clicking on all cylinders, and she has the skill set to neutralize the Collins game.
Barty has already won two Slam titles and been the world #1 for a while, but she has never won her home Slam (in fact this is her first final appearance) and will be desperate to do so.
This will obviously come down to whose game is better? There’s no stopping Ash Barty. It’s no coincidence she’s in the final having dropped only 21 games. I anticipate Barty winning her first Aussie Open title, winning in 2 Sets, and covering the spread in the process!