- Results: +6.89 units
Romero/Costa Over 1.5 rounds (-127) [2 units] +2.00u
Romero/Costa - Fight Starts Round 3 (+145) [1 unit] +1.45u
Romero/Costa - YES Fight Goes the Distance (+275) [1 unit] +2.75u
Romero (-135) [0.60 unit] -0.81u
Costa has never had a fight even enter the 3rd round so this is a stupid bet right? (Lee Corso voice) Not so fast my friend!
Costa’s first 9 fights all ended in the first round
His most recent three all ended in the 2nd round, each progressively (albeit minimally) deeper into the 2nd round than the previous one. This is the result of fighting better competition. Yoel Romero is more than one step above Uriah Hall (Costa’s best opponent to date)
Costa’s first ten fights are against irrelevant no-name fighters. Something Brazilian fighters have been accused of over time is padding their records/stats with bouts over far over-matched opponents. His best competition to date has been Uriah Hall in his last fight who is a borderline top 15 fighter at best. Costa finished Hall just over halfway into the 2nd round
“Romero is 42 there’s no way he can go the distance right? Plus he’s always been short on a gas tank.”
True, he’s 42 years old. But he’s also a physical specimen unlike 99.99999% of humans. His 42 are some peoples 32, even 22.
Romero went a full 5 rounds with Whitaker in his most recent fight, so whether or not he can last 3 shouldn't be a question.
3 of Romero’s last 5 fights went to decision. Two were 5 rounds vs Whitaker. One was 3 rounds vs Jacare Souza. Romero went the distance one other time in his career and it was against Brad Tavares.
In fact, ALL of Romero’s LAST TEN fights have entered the 3rd round!
With two guys packing so much power here, why would I think it’d go the distance?
For one, both guys have proven they could take a punch although Costa I’m a little less sure about considering the strength of his fight history. Romero has only been KO'd once and it was early in his career. It's not Romero's chin I'd be worried about tho, it would be how he responds to Costa's body punches which he's known to throw quite a bit.
Secondly, its not uncommon when two fighters known for knockouts go the distance, or at least longer than expected. They’ll both fight more tentatively knowing that one good punch from either could end the fight. In fact, two of Romero’s decisions were against fighters known for having knockout power (Souza, Tavares). Fighters similar to Costa.
Thirdly, Romero is a slow methodical fighter who kind of rocks back and forth waiting for the right moments to burst forward with an attack. This usually means there are easily 5-10 seconds (even longer) inbetween attack sequences from him and anyone he fights. Nobody ever charges at Romero and gets into a brawl so they all fight at his pace. Romero is a former silver medal Olympic wrestler as well so clinches or takedowns won’t do much other than help time tick by. Costa is a black belt in BJJ so coupled with Romero's wrestling, going to the ground could easily end in stalemate. (tick tick tick)
The one concerning stat I see is Costa's significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute. He lands 8.83 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.79. That's a ridiculous pace to be fighting at. However, like I stated above, 1) I think that's a product of Costa's competition and 2) no one rushes at Romero and starts throwing volume. It just doesn't happen, that much I know is consistent in his fights. Unless Costa is willing to risk it all and burn himself out in the 1st round I see this fight operating more at Romero's pace of landing 3.32 significant strikes per min and absorbing 2.95.
DC/Stipe Fight Starts 3rd Round (-121) [2 units] +2.00u
Stipe by Decision (+700) [0.30 unit] -0.30
DC has never been knocked out (due to reversal of Jones fight - Leg kick to head followed by punches). Stipe has only been knocked out twice (once by DC), but he learned from a flaw in his game as a result of it. That same opportunity wont be there this time for DC and he will have to find another way, which will take time. Miocic was keeping his distance well in the first fight and after being KO'd last time I think will take a more cautious approach, possible thinking its advantageous to take his 40 year old opponent into deeper water. That first fight was coasting through the first round before DC dropped Miocic out of nowhere coming out of a lazy clench. Before his most recent 3 fights, DC has entered the 3rd round in 6 of his previous 7 fights. Because DC is difficult to KO, I think this play rests mostly on whether or not Stipe can last the first two rounds, which I expect him to do. Miocic has nothing to lose by trying to keep this fight at a distance and on its feet so he can use his 7.5 inch reach advantage most effectively.
Nate Diaz (+120) [1 unit] +1.20u
Nate Diaz by submission (+850) [0.20 unit] -0.20u
Let me start by saying I've been a Diaz brother fan for a long time. Let me continue by saying that originally I was on Pettis in this fight. I always feel that I'm being objective even when my fandom is involved. Hell I bet against Oezdemir last week with Latifi even though I'm an Oezdemir fan. Was also very wrong about that fight lol.
I'll now state why I originally liked Pettis... Diaz isn't a round winner. He even acknowledges this himself and pretty much says he isn't going to change. He identifies himself as a fighter not a round winner. While I respect the hell out of his approach, its one that doesn't bode well for him when the fight goes to the judges (3-9 in fights that have gone to decision). Also, Diaz is a known slow starter in round 1, which is a substantial edge to overcome in a 3 round fight. On top of that, all the scar tissue on his face opens up with a stiff breeze so he will begin bleeding simply from entering the octagon. The optics of Diaz's bleeding face could influence the judges. Two of Diaz's best attributes will be minimized due to the 3 round limit: his gas tank and his pressure.
Diaz main weakness is his susceptibility to be compromised by leg kicks. As a boxer he keeps most of his weight on his front foot. Fighters with strong kick games have beaten Diaz (RDA, Benson Henderson, Josh Thomson), including the only time he was ever TKO'd (Thomson). Pettis fight style is congruent with those fighters. Diaz is 6-4 since 2011 and three of his losses were against strong kicking attacks that I just mentioned. Pettis might even have the strongest kick game out of all of them.
So, after making a good case against Diaz, where do I see the edge for him? Well, almost everywhere else actually. Better boxing = Diaz. Better BJJ = Diaz. More heart = Diaz (though Pettis has it too). Better chin = Diaz. Height = Diaz. Reach = Diaz. Gas tank = Diaz Pressure on opponent = Diaz
Pettis is 3-6 in his last 9 fights, but he's lost to some of the best fighters the game has to offer (Ferguson, Poirer, Holloway, Barboza, Alaverz, RDA), so I cant hold that against him. However, looking to draw parallels I see this: Pettis struggled against top notch boxers...Alvarez, Holloway, Poirer, Ferguson. Diaz, is a top notch boxer. In fact he has one of the best 1-2 combos the sport as ever seen. On top of the boxing skills, the pressure that Diaz puts on opponents is as unrelenting as it gets.
Now the main reason I like Diaz...the weight! 170 is Diaz's home, and Pettis is new to the neighborhood. Diaz looked noticeably bigger and stronger at the weigh ins. Diaz's shoulders are level with Pettis' chin. Holloway destroyed Pettis with boxing at 145 lbs. Ferguson demolished Pettis with boxing at 155 lbs. Diaz is going to lay the beat down on Pettis with his boxing at 170lbs. Diaz uses his boxing to wear down his opponents, then submits them, which is why I like those odds of +850 for a submission. While Pettis has strong BJJ, Diaz is 2nd degree black belt under Cesar Gracie and can mount offense from anywhere on the floor, including some of the sports' best offensive BJJ from the back.
Other factors:
Three year layoff: Will not phase Diaz. He is a triathlete that keeps nutrition and fitness as his #1 focus year round. If anything, maybe the 3 years off will help the scar tissue heal a little extra.
Motivation: Both fighters dislike each other so I cant say there is an edge here. But Diaz called out Pettis a long time ago. Diaz also called out Conor McGregor before he shocked (some people) with that victory. Diaz will be on a mission to back up his talk.
Home Turf: Event is in Anaheim, CA. Diaz is from Stockton, CA. At the weigh ins the crowd was in obvious support of Diaz. If crowd support could be influential in this fight it would be in favor or Diaz.
Benitez (+265) [0.50 unit] -0.50u
Benitez by TKO/KO (+1100) [0.10 unit] -0.10u
FanDuel puts out longer odds than most shops and these are two that I think are worth a little dabble. Benitez has a STRONG left kick and Yusuff fights awkwardly squared up to his opponent, rather than on an angle. All that does for Benitez is serve up his liver on a dinner plate for Benitez to eat up with left kicks. I'm taking a stab here that he lands a crippling liver kick or is able to chew up Yusuff with calf kicks and then finish a weakened opponent. Yusuff is a legit fighter who can bang. He can hit hard and handle being hit. His fight with Mike Davis on contender series is a great example of that. Benitez has some decent boxing and with the power in his kicks I'll dabble at this price.
Added a half unit on Benitez for the fight as well. Getting a good price on 5dimes with a fighter that has 3x as much fight experience than his opponent. Benitez beat two quality fighters in his last two fights and should have a 4 fight win streak if not for a bogus decision in his loss to Barzola.
Bermudez by Submission in the 3rd Round (+1300) [0.10 unit] -0.10u
Another Fanduel line. Don't know much about Casey Kenney but he looks capable of holding his own for awhile. He has 4 submission wins on his resume and showed decent striking, mixing up punches and kicks. Bermudez hasn't fought great competition and I'm making an assumption that this is a slight step up in competition for him. Bermudez only had two fights enter the 3rd round in his career, and both went the distance. I'm expecting Kenney to hold his own but still be outmatched as this fight progresses, with Bermudez finding a way to get it done. I think this fight gets out of the first round and at this price I'll take a chance Bermudez gets his first 3rd round finish by submission. Bermudez has 11 submission wins out of his 14 total. He has won all of his previous 6 fights via submission.
Assuncao (+225) [0.50 unit] -0.50
Hope I'm a help.