Less than 24 hours away. I've been excited about this card for awhile, especially the main event. Clearly I'm backing Santos quite a bit here.
Disclaimer: Let's keep in mind, he is still a very heavy underdog so dont bet anything you're not ok losing if you do decide to tail me here. Mentally, I'm writing the Santos bets off as a loss to start - its the reality of betting a +500 underdog. That's -4.75 units to start the day. If that makes you uneasy, dont do it. Im completely prepared to take a bath this Saturday if it doesn't go my way, and I'm also entirely prepared to reap the rewards if it does go my way. I just know considering how I feel about Santos here (and some other picks that I'll post after I bet), I would be more pissed if I didn't cash big than I would be losing 5 units on the plays.
Thiago Santos (+500) [risking 3.5 units]
Thiago Santos (+530) [0.5 unit]
Thiago Santos TKO/KO (+800) [0.75 unit]
Thiago Santos wins in Rd 2 (+2100) [0.10 unit]
Thiago Santos wins in Rd 3 (+3400) [0.10 unit]
I cant pass up this price on Santos. This is as good as any of a fighter to ever bet against Jones with. Jones could potentially end this fight on the floor via submission or elbows, make it look easy, and you'll be left MF-ing me for giving out such a dumb pick. Totally possible. But - I fully contend it's worth the shot here. I'd play it at anything +350 or better but I'd go a unit or two less at that price. Santos throws heavy hands. Real heavy. His nickname is the sledgehammer (Marreta). Hes got a giant sledgehammer tattooed on his chest. Hes serious lol. But for real- he has been doubted his entire career. Time and time again he has proven his doubters wrong. And he's won as an underdog (granted not +500). He has shown steady improvement from fight to fight which is very important to me. The reason Santos had always been doubted is bc he was raw. He got into MMA late, was a paratrooper and did capoeira(spelling?). Hes a bigger guy that's filled out over the years, but don't let that fool you as his capoeira history shows his athleticism. Hes a former middleweight that bulked himself into a light heavyweight where he belongs. Hes a black belt in muy thai and BJJ. Bc of his BJJ skills, hes not entirely lost on the floor against Jones although hes at a disadvantage. Santos is long enough that he can almost match Jones' length and on top if it he throws heavy kicks. His kick game is strong and his left kick is LETHAL but it's telegraphed bc he switches to southpaw when he wants to use it.
Santos is on an 8-1 run with TKO/KO wins over...
At Middleweight
Marshman (Santos got hurt by an big overhand right but recovered almost immediately and went on the offensive)
Meerschart (never lost via tko/ko...until Santos)
Jack Hermanson (never lost via tko/ko...until Santos)
Anthony Smith (looked like a grown man fighting a boy. Again Santos shows his ability to quickly recover from a couple real hard strikes as well as his power)
At Light Heavyweight
Eryk Anders (Beat Anders up so bad that he couldn't make it back to his stool after the 3rd round and the ref ended the fight)
Jimi Manuwa. (Manuwa throws hammers, but Santos throws sledgehammers. Another prime example of "you do not want to trade punches with this guy". Also another prime example that Santos can take a bigtime hit. Manuwa hit him with some BOMBS and it still wasn't enough. Santos finished him with vicious uppercut/hook combo)
Jan Blachowitz (never lost via KO....until Santos. Had one other fight stopped between rounds)
.....that's a hell of a resume. Are you kidding me with +500?
Motivation:
Santos is as determined and focused as I've ever seen him. Win or lose he comes out after every fight.. I've seen him have learning experiences, mid fight, and still overcome them. Trajectory = . Obv this is the biggest fight of his life. It's not for Jones however. Jones is unbelievable, likely the GOAT, but I wouldn't bet that hes more focused, determined and diligent in his training camp as Santos is.
Recent Common opponent: Anthony Smith
I dont think it matters, but Santos fought Smith at middleweight. Jones fought Smith at Light Heavyweight. Santos won by TKO after manhandling Smith. Smith was lucky to escape 1st round with Santos. Jones won by unanimous 5 round decision in a fight that he should have ended before the 3rd round even started. He couldn't even finish Smith after an illegal knee to the head. It was Jones most recent opponent and by his standards a mediocre performance at best.
If Jones decides not to (or is unable to) take this fight to the ground and/or put Santos back up against the cage and stomp/knee him like crazy, this is more like a +150 fight. If they just decide to trade strikes like wild men, Santos is -130 in that situation. A disadvantage for Santos here that should be noted is his avg fight time is only 6:30 whereas Jones' is 14:30. When you're knocking everyone out it makes it difficult to gain experience in "championship rounds". The longer this fight goes the slimmer our chances get but Santos shouldn't gas (if at all) until after the 3rd. Santos' fight style is one of patience and efficiency so I dont expect him to wear himself out on his feet. If Jones gets him on his back that's another story.
The "Marreta play of the month!" Lol
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Units: Faves to win. Dogs to risk
Added plays:
Rockhold (-170) [2 units]
Rockhold is moving up to 205 for the first time to avoid tough weigh cuts and injuries that came along with them while trying make weight at 185. Both fighters are coming off knockout losses vs heavy hitters. Here we have an “anything you can do, I can do better” situation with Rockhold over Blachowicz. To avoid typing Blachowicz anymore lets call him Jan. Jan is a quality fighter but doesn’t do anything great. There could be some concern about Rockhold’s chin, but Jan has 1 TKO/KO finish since 2011. Also the 3 fighters who knocked him out are simply better fighters and strikers (Vitor on roids, Bisping, Romero). Additionally, with Rockhold’s ground game I cant imagine he gets submitted here by a less talented fighter. So Jan’s path to victory would be almost exclusively through decision, yet Rockhold is always winning rounds. So anything less than -200 here should be considered a steal for Luke. Jan seems to still be improving as evidenced by a nice run before a KO loss to Santos, but his fights went to decision in 11 of his last 15 fights. Rockhold has 9 career UFC fights and not one of them has gone to decision. Something has to give here and I don’t think its Rockhold. I mentioned both fighters are coming off losses - well Jan has twice lost back to back fights in his last ten fights which shows that he doesn’t always rebound. If Rockhold was fighting a “finisher” like a Santos, theres no way I’d bet him. This is a favorable matchup for Rockhold.
Askren (-225) [1 unit]
Askren (-202) [1 unit]
Askren is talking the talk to the millionth degree! Anyone who is that unflappably confident and absolutely sure of themselves usually is so for a reason. I may even bet Askren by submission in the 2nd round just because that was the prediction he gave lol. His fighting style annoys so many people, including myself, but he’s so F’N good at it. There is something amazing about how he sticks to someone once he gets a hold of them and they cant get away. The key factor here for it being a bet on Askren is that it’s a 3 round fight. Over 5 rounds Askren has shown a drop off in effectiveness and he’s not getting any younger. With only 3 rounds, he just needs to essentially get one takedown in two different rounds and he’ll be in the driver seat to win a decision. Masvidal struggled quite a bit against Demien Maia and couldn’t get off the floor when he was taken down. Maia’s standup is far superior to Askren’s non-existent standup tho (Askren landed ZERO punches against Lawler and still won lol). Askren has shown many times that he can take punishment. Lawler packs way more punch than Masvidal yet Askren ate it, recovered, and won without throwing a punch…. the crazy thing is its not luck lol. I really like Masvidal as a fighter but in order for him to win this matchup he would need to knock out Askren or avoid getting taken down more than once all fight…and I’ll lay a little over 2-1 saying that neither of those will happen. Also from a motivation standpoint, Askren is still undefeated and trying to prove he’s the best in the world – he’s on a mission. He’s a king of the mental game and is in Masvidal’s head.
Sanchez/Chiesa - YES fight WILL go the distance (+115) [3 units]
Sanchez/Chiesa - Fight WILL start 3rd Rd (-109) [1.5 units]
Sanchez/Chiesa - Fight WILL start 2nd Rd (-237) [1 unit]
Chiesa has 0 wins by TKO/KO and 11 wins by submission. Sanchez has never been submitted in his entire 40-fight career. Sanchez has 10 wins since 2009; nine by decision and one by TKO. It just so happens that the TKO was in his last fight vs Mickey Gall. That TKO had everything to do with Gall be as gassed as I’ve ever seen a professional fighter after one round, and nothing to do with anything that Sanchez did offensively. Chiesa and Sanchez both have incredible gas tanks so I don’t see either of them being lopsidedly exhausted comparative to the other fighter. Chiesa looks much bigger and stronger as a welterweight and belongs in that division, but I won’t start assuming knockout power for someone with none in their 19-fight career. Because of the pace these two fight at it will be a very stressful fight to watch, but I gotta like our chances that this goes to the scorecards.
Gilbert Melendez (+305) [1.25 unit]
On the surface we have a young 14-1 rising star in Arnold Allen vs an old beat up former champ in Melendez who’s passed his prime. Melendez is coming off four straight losses and 5 in his last 6. So what’s to like right? Allen is boarding his hype train in England and riding it all the way across the pond to Las Vegas. This will be Allen’s first fight in the western hemisphere; Germany (1), Jordan (3), England (11). Las Vegas is a long way from home for the young fighter. Melendez has been fighting professionally almost as long as Allen has been alive and has been in plenty huge fights. Experience edge heavily on Melendez side. Allen is still raw and is a purple belt in BJJ. Meanwhile Melendez is an expert boxer, expert grappler, and Cesar Gracie BJJ black belt.
Allen’s best win is….Amirkhani?...I think??...big deal! Allen was losing to Mads Burnell (WHO!?...exactly!) before Burnell made a poor decision in the 3rd round and pretty much put himself into a submission for Allen…was a very lucky victory.
Back to Melendez losing four fights in a row…what brings him back? What makes him want to still do this? He’s a former champ looking to go out on top and he never shied away from stiff competition. He’s not coming back for money. He’s not coming back for fame. He’s coming back and fighting this rising star to prove a point; that he has another W in him. His recent losses were to: (in chronological order)
-Ben Henderson, former champ. Title fight. Close match but Henderson outperformed him.
-Anthony Pettis, former champ. Title fight. Melendez was winning until being submitted.
-Eddie Alvarez, former champ. Melendez owned the first round and almost finished Alvarez. Somehow Alvarez won final two rounds after having his nose broken. Total gutsy performance by Eddie.
-Edson Barboza, great fighter during a great run in maybe his best overall performance. And Melendez still hung in there. Barboza tortured him with leg kicks but as usual, Melendez was never really out of it
-Jeremy Stephens, an absolute warrior with nothing but big time fights in his fight log. Stephens crushed him with leg kicks like Barboza did. Melendez prob had a broken leg midway through round 1 and still finished the fight. Stephens even high fived him in the 3rd round to show respect almost in disbelief that he was still standing. It looked like an alien was coming out of his leg. Google it lol its prob there.
Back to Allen… Allen is not: a former champ, or good enough to beat Barboza or Stephens at this stage in his career. Melendez went the distance in all of those fights except Pettis. Allen doesn’t leg kick and that’s what killed Melendez in his last two fights. Plus Allen is south paw which means he wont be kicking the troubled area of Melendez leg even if he were to throw some kicks. I was more impressed by Melendez in those recent 5 losses than I was with Allen in any of his wins. Melendez has also proven time and time again that he has a chin. We have yet to see Allen’s tested by a champion caliber fighter, and I assure you, Melendez will test it. If this was a 5 round fight I'd bet more on Melendez. With it only being a 3 round fight, Melendez loses a big advantage in 4th and 5th round experience, and the young talented Allen is accustomed to entering the 3rd round (7 of last 8 fights started 3rd round....5 went to decision)
This is a low buying price on Melendez and an awfully expensive one for Allen in his toughest test to date.
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Added:
Holm (+355) [0.50 unit]
Holm (+330) [0.25 unit]
Holm by Decision (+600) [0.30 unit]
Holm by Decision (+700) [0.10 unit]
Holm will be the best boxer that Nunes has faced in terms of both technique and accomplishment. Holm also has a length advantage and uses her karate to keep distance well. Nunes’ win vs Cyborg at 144 pounds was…. WOW. Both wins vs Shevchenko are impressive. Her wins over Tate and Rousy just exposed women fighters who have poor stand up. Nunes was an underdog in every one of those fights except one time a -120 favorite vs Shevchenko. This is unfamiliar territory for Nunes to be the heavy favorite in a big fight. Any bet on Nunes comes with some retroactive tax built into the line. Shevchenko doesn’t have the length that Holm does and was able to successfully keep her distance from Nunes. I see a decent chance that Holm will be able to tap Nunes with volume strikes and back away to avoid heavy damage. A get in and get out approach to score points. Holm is at a definite disadvantage on the ground, but has nearly an 80% defensive takedown rate. Holm is a world class boxer, so to get her at 3.5 to 1 in a fight that’s nearly a coin toss to go the distance – why the heck not? She’s been training out of Vegas so I’ll speculate she may have the crowd on her side for an energy boost or even some influence of the judges. Holm is 0-2 fighting in Vegas but maybe third times the charm….
Holm won’t submit Nunes and while a KO is possible, I think her best approach to win this fight needs to be score points, keep her distance, avoid takedowns and get the fight to the cards. So Holm by decision is also worth a play +500 or better
Hope I'm a help. Moreso than usual because if not this could get ugly quickly lol
Tally: -9.08 units
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Melendez (LOSS -1.25 units)
Melendez looked depleted after 3 minutes of this fight. Turns out the drop in weight class down to 144 probably drained his energy, and I’ll be honest I didn’t even consider that. He wasn’t himself and I cant imagine he intended to just mail it in with as much pride as he has. Allen put on a solid display of striking and took advantage of Melendez’s trouble spot by using his lead leg to kick rather than his back leg. Aside from the first 2.5 mins of the fight which I’d give to Melendez, Allen made this fight look like a sparring session.
Chiesa/Sanchez – (WIN +5.89 units)
Nearly exactly what I expected….I sweat the entire F’n time….from the first strike to the final horn. Both showed deep gas tanks and Diego makes it through his 41st fight without ever being submitted. I’m also still laughing about Chiesa being +200 to win via TKO/KO when he’s now went 20 fights with…..ZERO! lol These wagers were going to play a significant role in whether or not I would take a bath on this card especially after the Melendez loss. HUGE HUGE HUGE. One HUGE each for how important it was to cash each one of these plays.
Rockhold (LOSS -3.40 units)
This one hurts most because my instinct was to take Blachowicz but my research convinced me that Rockhold was the play. I feared that the way he was knocked out vs Bisping and Romero indicated his career was done and a light breeze would KO him. Turns out that’s the case and 15 months off couldn’t fix Rockhold’s eggshell chin. I will look to fade Blachowicz in his next fight because he’ll get more credit for this W than he should. This was a Rockhold Fold not a Blachowicz win.
Askren (LOSS -4.27 units)
Well….I don’t even know what to say about this one. Ben Askren has the two absolute oddest UFC fights in history. And he still has yet to land one strike over the course of those two career fights. I have NO CLUE what to expect if he ever fights again. That was as brutal a KO as I’ve ever seen. Funny thing is I would LOVE to see a rematch now….F ME I’m already a sucker for Askren in that fight.
Santos (LOSS -4.95 units)
….Uhhhh….absolute trash. Santos won the fight. Jones didn’t do shit to Santos. Oh and Santos was fighting with what looked like a torn ACL…. Are you kidding me? Absolute joke of a decision. Theres something to be said that Jones couldn’t take advantage of a clearly compromised fighter. Jones got helped to the locker room as a result of damage done by Santos. Santos got help to the locker room as a result of him hurting himself. Unreal. I'm in disbelief. Like...WHAT?!?!