I'm going so big on Max for more than one reason... #1 Max Takedown defense among the best at 83% very very hard to take down, Brian is INCREDIBLE on the mat specializing in submissions an chokes NOT GETTING PPL TO THE FLOOR. His takedown landing percentage is only 13%. So the likelihood Brian actually takes Max down very low.
#2 the striking disparity is very large... Max is the faster, longer, smoother, more efficient, throws way more volume and a more technical striker both offensively and defensively. Outpointed Pettis bad, Aldo, Stephens all of them I believe better stand up than ORTEGA. with much more variety to offer an keep his opponent off balance... Max is like a machine he analyzes you an all your movements round 1 and 2 then come round 3... 4 & 5 he literally unleashes hell on you. In each fight his output increases as the fight goes on every single fight.
#3 Ortega has been the comeback kid and I have physically watched him lose 2 rounds in more than 2..3 fights to WAY LESSER fighters than Max Holloway and he has finished the opponent to ultimately win... the difference between those and Max as I mentioned Max gets stronger and has amazing cardio as the fight goes on literally every single time out & also fwiw nobody has outlanded Max in striking since this guy named Conor McGregor did it in 2013 also was the last time Max lost.. he was 19 years old.
#4 Strength of schedule Holloway= Jose Aldo X2, Anthony Pettis, Jeremy Stephens, Ricardo Lamas, Cub Swanson those are Max last 6 opponents they all have been finished violently or DOMINATED bell to bell the same way Max pieces you up picks his shots an walks you down.
Ortega= Frankie , Cub, Moicano , Guida.
Brian was losing 3 out of 4 of those wins before rallying to come from behind. He was especially getting dominated on feet by Moicano a tall, long, striker w variety like max... Moicano got tired in the 3rd again Max gets stronger.
#5 Fight I.Q both fighters are very smart & both are extremely composed with that being said THEEEEEE only time we will see Max Holloway on the ground willingly with Ortega is when he swarms him to finish the fight... I feel like he knows how big his advantage on the feet is an the fight starts standing every single round.
**Hope that helps a bit this is not a pick em fight IMO Max wins this 70/100 worse case....so the line should be at least -233. Ortegas tough an his BJJ is excellent .... but this is the one guy in Max whose understanding of distance control an him being bigger with excellent takedown defense an awareness & being able to dictate the distance of where the fight will be is why he wins. Max is soooo complete and holds an advantage in every aspect of this fight besides BJJ situations. Good luck to us