bwizzle said:
Nice call Brady! Great insight!
i do not have the option, however, i put a little more weight on what LP was saying about players that have been playing vs guys that have not. With this being a LOW scoring tourney, PUTTING will be the key number i believe. It only makes sense that a player that has not played recently may have a little less feel than one that has? maybe? maybe not?
Totally hear you on the plays LP! Although you have helped me out on catching more than a few bad reads over time....
First off going to go only a top 5 play on Nick Watney. Short odds at Plus 350. I just cant nail a winner down. so going to pass. the odds on JW are too short for the lay off. had he been a few higher 15-17 range i would have taken it....but at 11-1 i do not see the value.
back in a few with the tourney and R1 plays.
GDLK!
Bwizzle
ps
anyone have thoughts on my Pats vs Jets tonight? Rain should be pretty much done by kick off? Local is -11! and 44.
Ray i also like your play!
Bwizzle - like your call on Watney. Local Vegas kid that has played this tournament well in the past. Was on my shortlist.
Looking forward to the plays my man!
Also - huge Jets fan here and season ticket holder. I'm actually waiting for a little movement on my books before taking the points tonight. Not one of those Homers though, I bet against them quite a bit (and have made money on their dismal 0-5-1 ATS record so far). But tonight just feels like it'll be a close game. First off - EVERYONE seems like they are on the Pats via a blowout, and rightfully so since the Jets stink right now. But shockingly enough the Defense hasn't been playing too badly. I know that sounds crazy, but if you have watched the games Geno has put them in some tough situations, and even given the other team some points. They did a solid job on Peyton last week (only 237 yards) as he chose to run the ball a lot since Rex wanted to stop him. Peyton is great at getting his team in the right plays. Now Tom is def the same way, but with Ridley out now, I just don't think the Jets are scared for 1 second about the Pats run. That should be big for the defensive schemes.
Rex has schemed up some decent secondary looks even though we are now down what should have been our Top 3 CBs this year. And i happen to think Mayo is going to be a huge loss for the Pats. I expect the Jets, after being embarrassed by the Denver Run D, to come out and pound the rock effectively tonight. I see something like 27-23, 24-17 for the Pats. Just want to get a good price on that +10 at 5D. If I had that +11 I'd have already fired.
One thing that scares me and is extremely hard to cap, turnovers. Thing the Pats are +9 and the Jets -9???? That could be enormous tonight.
Oh and there is also the chance at another end of game Pick 6 by Geno to lose the cover like last week, haha.
But enough about football I guess (sorry get almost as amped up for that as golf). Jets will prolly be my posted play this week. But who knows!
Either way, good luck today buddy!
-LinksPicks