The New Orleans Saints come into 2014 with aspirations of returning to the playoffs. Last year was no slouch of a year as the Saints supported a 11-5 record and came away with a road playoff win in Philadelphia. Unfortunately they went down to the Seattle Seahawks in round two. The Saints will look to build on last years successes and make a deeper push into the playoffs in 2014.
Offense: This offense is one of the highest passing teams in the league in yardage. 307ypg. That alone keeps defensive coordinators up at night. It's a quote we hear often from opposing coaches days before they face QB Drew Brees, TE Jimmy Graham, and coach Sean Payton. Especially with numbers like Drew Brees' had last year 5,162 passing yards and 39 td's and Jimmy Graham's 1,215 receiving yards and 16 td's. This year will be much of the same. Saints TE Jimmy Graham just signed around a 40 million dollar deal. That alone will keep Brees and himself happy coming into this year. The running game is the spot which draws some concern. The Saints are not a run happy team as they ranked 25th in the league, an average of just 92ypg . They will need to get more production out of the backfield this year.They do have very durable backs in Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas. The departure of long time RB Darren Sproles may prove to be hurtful as we get into the schedule. Still the Saints have always used the backfield with limitation, most in part because through the air they are just that hard to stop With WR Kenny Stills really finding a groove with this team and picking up a potential rookie of the year in the draft with WR Brandon Cooks, this offense may even be more potent and i expect the offense to roll in 2014.
Defense: The defense last year made some vast improvements from the year prior. In 2012 the Saints had some of the leagues worst defensive numbers. 2013 was a monster turnaround. The defensive passing numbers have only gotten better in 2013. This Saints ranked #2 in defensive passing yards per game at 194.1. The running defense surrendered just over 110ypg. A big improvement from years past. This Saints defense has made some changes but nothing to be to alarmed about this year. The big question for this defense is can they stop teams when they are on the road. The Saints had major issues last year with road games. Winning only 3 road games all of 2013. The Saints defense at home was only giving up an avg of 15.6 ppg. On the road they gave up around 22.7ppg. They will need to improve that area on the road this year. Overall this Saints defense is above average.
Projected line: 10 (-110) Over/Under TT
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/no/year/2013
Schedule: Here's the tricky part with this play. Will the Saints be the same team on the road. I actually do not think they will drop 5 games like they did last year. I can see them maybe dropping 3 or 4. @Pitt, @Chic, @ Caro, @ Atl, @Dal, @Clev, @Det, @TB....I will lean to 3 with the road games with losses. Home games is where this team makes it's money. You have one hell of a time stopping this team with that crowd on that turf. The Saints went a perfect 8-0 last year as they really only had one real scare in N.O. This years home slate looks a bit tougher though. They open up the home games with Minn. That game should be a win quite easily. Then it gets a bit tougher with games against. TB, GB, SF, Cinn, Balt, Caro, Atl. I can see the Saints dropping two games at home this year. Not 100% which two games but i would lean SF and GB. Still this can be a 10+ win team.
Pick: After looking at this team numerous times for the team total, nothing is still crystal clear. I really believe this can go either way. If you think the Saints can improve from last year on the road. I think they can. If you think the Saints can win 6-8 games at home. Well then the Over 10 is the play. The fact the number is 10 and not 10.5 makes this even harder for myself. I can see the Saints losing 5 maybe 6. I just don't see 7 losses. They have to improve the road games. I'm sure its been stressed to them all off season. I can only look one direction here. I think this lands on 10 or 11. I just cant see the Saints with 9 or less wins. This ticket will be in your hands come week 16, so get ready to hold on.
Play New Orleans Saints - Over 10 (-110)