I was wondering how many times the point spread actually came into play in all of the games last year. I listen a lot to all kinds of football related podcasts such ESPN Football or Around The League, and last year it was often mentioned that a lot of times the point spread didn't come into play.
As an example to clarify further, the Denver - Baltimore game last Thursday. Beforehand, I picked Denver to win, because they are clearly the superior team (even though they lost last year in the play-offs to Baltimore), but I bet the Ravens +7.5 because it seemed the 'right side' as the defending NFL champion got 7.5 points. But, Denver won handily and the point spread did not come into play because the Broncos won by 22 points. So, why not just bet the side you think will win, and take or give the points, because over 16 games each week, the point spread doesn't matter most of the time.
So I'm wondering if this could be a sound betting tactic, but I would like some numbers. Would/Could anybody give some numbers to check this out? What do you think of this tactic? Probably I'm not the first one to think of this of course :)
At least if had bet according to this method I would have cashed in on Denver -7.5...
Thanks and greetz,
Stijn