i've already bet the Over at 54 (in Superbowl LIV), as I only see it continuing to tick higher.
some might call it a square/joe play, I don't care.
While "Niners love to run a lot and should be able to run vs KC" will have people over-thinking themselves into the Under, the Niners run SUCCESSFULLY and it leads to points. also, Shanahan's no dummy, he will mix in play-action and creative passing plays early so KC can't stack the box. (even if KC does stack the box, this isn't a simple Derrick Henry power run game. in addition to Mostert and Breida and Coleman if healthy, Shanny will get Deebo Samuel going on some end-arounds.)
Lots of talk about Jimmy G "doing nothing" and being a game manager but he has thrown the ball to lead comeback wins this year. they have a lot of good weapons. and while KC defense is much improved and better than their rep, I saw the Titans doing mostly whatever they wanted on offense in that first half last week. people are really jumping on the "Let's Dilfer Jimmy G" cuz of his low attempts vs. GB. but this season Garoppolo had 3,978 Pass yards, 4th-most in a single season in 49ers history; completed 69.1% of passes, 5th-highest percentage in the NFL; and had three games with 300 Pass yards, 4 pass TD and 70% completion percentage (most in NFL).even though there's always a worry of Garapolo throwing one to the defense, again, Shanny always schemes open easy slants and other short passes that lead to big plays for Kittle and company. and given the opponent here, Shanny will likely look to score a lot early and not get into a situation where they are down big and need to come back.
Two "offensive genius" type coaches with two weeks to prepare. both with something to prove of course, as both have lost a SB. two competent/good kickers, two very good offenses, and an NFL rule book set up to favor the QBs/offense. random big-game nerves can lead to coverage breakdowns on special teams, so crazy fast dudes like Mecole Hardman could bust a big return. or maybe someone botches a punt to hand the other team another free 3 or 7 points.
if the game is close, 28-27... 31-24, 30-27, even 33-23 gets us over.... and if it turns into a blowout, we know KC can and has come back in both playoff games so they will not let up with a lead. and if the Niners go up 28-3, Shanny will get ATL/NE flashbacks and keep scoring. and of course the back door will be wide open. if one team is up 35-17 in the final minute, the prevent D will be soft and the losing team wont give up so it'll get to 35-24.
we know the Chiefs can score... to the tune of a whopping 451 points this year despite Mahomes missing 2 games. (for perspective, the Saints and Bucs scored 458 points this year.) well guess what, SF scored 479! that's 29.9 ppg for SF, and they are considered the defensive/rushing team in this contest.
more numbers:
Yards per play offense: SF 6.0 (4th) - KC 6.3 (2nd)
Yards per pass offense: SF 7.9 (3rd) - KC 7.9 (2nd)
DVOA offense: SF 7th - KC 3rd
the Chiefs defense has certainly come on in the 2nd half of the season... and considering they essentially "shut down" Derrick Henry, and they dominated the 2nd half of both their playoff games (only gave up 7pts in the 2nd half of each game vs. HOU and TENN), they still gave up 31 and 24 in those games (at home, to 2 defensive coaches). KC gives up 19+ ppg on D... and the vaunted Niners defense also gives up over 19 per game. so this aint the 85 Bears or 2000 Ravens winning 13-9. Both teams routinely give up 20 and given the offensive opponents, both D's likely to yield at least 27-28.
Pretty sure these 2 offenses and coaches will each manage to get roughly a TD in each quarter. i think the loser gets to 24 or 27.... and the winner will get to 31 or more.
Such a great matchup, either team could win. so just lay with wood with confidence on Over 54 in Super Bowl LIV and enjoy the game.