More detailed Analysis on games to be posted.
3* Indianapolis Colts +5/+6 -110 *LOSER*
- Will be graded at two units at +5 and one unit at +6. While the chiefs have played significantly worse since the Kareem Hunt suspension, The Colts have the best scoring differential in the NFL since week 7, and are on a 10-1 SU run since that point of the season. They are playing like possibly the best team in the league for over a half season of data. The Colts matchup very well with the Chiefs. They have a comparably excellent quarterback, coaching staff, with a better offensive line and defense. The colts can expect to be in a lot of second/third and shorts, as they have an elite offensive line that is going against a chiefs 32nd ranked run defense DVOA. When they get into third downs, the Colts are the best team in the NFL at third down conversion rate. If we ever get into a situation where the Colts need a backdoor score, we are in a solid position to get that score with Luck at quarterback as well. The Chiefs offense has edges as well, specifically in Travis Kelce against this zone defense, but the colts defense is better then the chiefs defense. The Colts defense, albeit against bad opponents, have only allowed 14 PPG in their last 8 games. They are the best team in the NFL at limiting explosive plays, which is the bread and butter of Mahomes game. They also are the best team in the NFL at limiting opposing WR production, which gives a hobbled Tyreek Hill a bad matchup. The colts are arguably just as good as the Chiefs are, giving us a ton of value on this number.
2* Eagles/Saints O51 -115 *LOSER*
- The first word that comes to mind when I think about these two coaches: Aggressive. The playoff are a perfect time to play with that mentality, as the game is win or go home. The ONLY time the Eagles were in a projected shootout playoff game, their aggressive play calling against the Patriots won them the super bowl, scoring 41 points. Both of these teams shut down opposing run games, make it all the more likely we see a pass heavy attack, especially vertically. The Saints average 34 PPG at home, and now face an Eagles defense that has allowed a 300+ yard passer in 4 of their last 5 games. Drew Brees leads the NFL in passer rating on 20+ yard passes, and only two defenses in the NFL gave up more 20+ yard passes this season then the Eagles. The Saints pass defense is 29th in passing YPG allowed, 29th in YPA, 22nd in 20+ yard completions allowed and 30th in 40+ yard completions allowed. They ranked 32nd in DVOA against deep passes. Brees is 5-0 SU in the superdome come playoff time, throwing for 12 TD's, 1 INT, and 305.8 passing YPG, while the Eagles pass Defense YTD was 30th in YPG allowed. Nick Foles has the HIGHEST quarterback rating in playoff history, just slightly ahead of legendary Packers QB Bart Starr. The last two times the Eagles faced an offense that forced them to be aggressive offensively to score, the Eagles were involved in shootout with the Rams and Texans. With both coaches willing to aggressively attack the opposing defense, look for a lot of big play attempts, and efficiency doing it.