For what it’s worth, it was a lousy Sunday with the Broncos crapping the bed, the Pats losing in a very unPatriot like way, the Chargers barely getting by, and the Saints Bucs staying inder. However, thanks to the Giants, and Cowboys, it wasn’t all bad, We’ll also thank the Titans for a big win on a big wager last Thursday.
Now on to tonight
LA CH @ KC
Last week, the10-3 Chargers found a way, in an obvious let down spot, coming off an emotional comeback win in PITT, with a trip to KC on deck. They edged the Bengals 26-21, but failed to cover the two TD spread. The Chargers are already assured of a 5th seed wildcard spot in the AFC palyoffs, but a Charger win here would tie them with the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West. However they would still lose the tiebreaker based on division record (4-1 for the Chiefs v 3-2 for the Chargers).
Last week, the 11-2 Chiefs also found a way, and squeaked by the Ravens in OT 27-24, in a game that they could have, and maybe should have lost. The Chief were never close to covering the 6.5 point spread, but pulled out the win when QB Patrick Mahomes completed a pair of 4th down passes late in the 4th quarter, to tie the game and force OT. A Chiefs win tonight would clinch the AFC West , and would give the Chiefs at least a two game lead with two to play in the race for #1 seed and home field in the AFC playoffs.
The Chargers possess a potent offense. They are averaging 27.4 offensive PPG (rank #4), 390.8 YPG (rank #6), and 6.6 YPP (rank #2). FO ranks the Chargers offense #2 in DVOA. By contrast, statistically the Chiefs defense os pne pf the worst in the league. They are giving up 26.2 offensive PPG (rank #28), 409.6 YPG (rank #20), and 5.9 YPP (rank #19). FO tanks the Chiefs defense #26. On paper, this looks like a mismatch on this side of the ball.
The Chargers will be looking to establish their running game here, against a Chiefs defense that struggles to stop ground attacks. They are averaging 122.1 rushing YPG (rank #12), and 4.8 YPC (rank #5). FO ranks the Chargers running attack #7. However, the problem that the Chargers face here could be injuries. The Chargers were supposed to get top RB Melvin Gordon (802 yards, and 5.2 YPC) back, but he is still listed as questionable with a knee injury, and will be a gme time decision. Backup Austin Ekeler, who finished with 94 yards from scrimmage in their win over the Bengals last week, suffered a concussion late in that game, and has been ruled out for this game. If Gordon can’t go, the Chargers will be down to rookie RB Justin Jackson. This season, Jackson has 27 carries for 139 yards (5.1 YPC). Over the last 3 weeks Jackson is averaging 6.0 YPC in limited action, with 6 of his 25 touches going for 17 or more yards.
As mentioned the Chiefs rush defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are giving up 127.8 rushing YPG (rank #25) and 5.1 YPC (rank #31. Last week the Ravens gashed them for 194 rushing yards, and 4.8 YPC. Even without Gordon, the Chargers should still be able to run the football, and if Gordon’s back and anywhere near healthy, the Chargers scuuld run him at KC all night long.
The Chargers also possess a potent passing offense with QB Phillip Rivers at the helm. They are averaging 268.8 passing YPG (rank #9), and 8/5 YPA (rank #2). Rivers is completing over 69% of his passes with 29 TDs and just 6 picks. The Chiefs don’t have a great pass defense either. They are giving up a league worst 281.8 passing YPG, and 5.9 YPA (rank #15). FO ranks the KC pass defense #15, and they've had better CB play than expected. Of course, the total yardage numbers could be a little exaggerated, because most of the Chiefs opponents were playing from behind and had to abandon their running game and throw the ball. Still the last time these two teams met in Week 1, Rivers torched the Chiefs D for 424 yards, 8.3 YPA, and 3 TDs.
The Chiefs might get a boost defensively with S Eric Berry’s return this week. According to the NFL Network, Berry will start, but will be on a snap count. Before going down, Berry was one of the top safeties in the league, but it's unclear how effective he’ll be tonight. If he's anywhere close to what he once was, that would be a huge boon for a KC defense that has struggled all season.
The Chiefs can put heat on QBs. They rank 2nd in sacks (41), and FO ranks the KC pass rush #10. Everyone knows about LB Justin Houston (5 sacks), but DE Chris Jones (5 sacks) has also been stellar this year, and he should have s favorable matchup here. However the Chargers pass protection has been solid. As a unit they have given up just 24 sacks (rank #6), and FO ranks them #9 in pass protection. In their week 1 meeting, the Chiefs only got to Rivers once.
The Charger should be able to put up points here.
As for the Chiefs, statistically, their offense is the best in the league. They are averaging 34.5 offensive PPG (rank #1), 437.5 YPG (rank #1), 6.9 YPP (rank #1), and FO ranks their offense #1. Last week, against one of the best defenses in the league, the Chiefs still managed to put up 27 points, 441 yards, and 5.3 YPP. However, what made the KC offense so damn good was the sheer number of playmakers that they had, but now, they have lost some big play weapons! RB Kareem Hunt (824 yards and 7 TDs) is gone, WR Sammy Watkins (40 catches for 519 yards and 3 TDs) is out again, and WR Tyreek Hill l(74 catches for 1,258 yards and 11 TDs), who limped off the field last Sunday, while listed as questionable, is expected to play, but may not be 100 percent because of his bum heel. Hill sat out of Monday's practice and was limited Tuesday and Wednesday.
The Chargers have a solid defense. They are giving up just 219.5 offensive PPG (rank #6) 331.8 YPG (rank #8)and 5.4 YPP (rank #9). However FO ranks the Chargers defense #9.
Without Hunt, the Chiefs, who are averaging 118.6 rushing YPG (rank #15), and 4.8 YPC (rank #7) for the season, don’t have as potent a running game. FO ranks the Chiefs rushing attack #5. Last week, with RB Sprencer Ware in the lineup, they rushed for 94 yards, and just 3.5 YPC, with Ware contributing 75 yards on 15 carries, against the Ravens. However, Ware is also out so the Chiefs will be down to theiir 3rd string RB, Damien Williams, who onlyhas 15 carries for 53 yards. By contrast the Chargers have an above average rush defense. They are giving up 101.1 rushing YPG (rank #11, and 4.4 YPC (rank #12., but FO ranks the Charger run defense a mediocre #16.
With Hunt gone and Ware out, the Chiefs could really struggle to run here. The Chargers were stronger against ground attacks at the beginning of the season, but although they've suffered some injuries at DT and LB that have made them less effective, they’re still decent.
When it comes to throwing the ball, the Chiefs passing attack, with Patrick Mahomes. is one of the best in the league. They average 318.8 passing YPG (rank #3), and 8.6 YPA (rank #1). FO ranks the Chiefs’ passing attack #1. Mahomes is completing over 67% of his passes with an unbelievable 43 TDs to 11 picks. However the Chargers pass defense is pretty solid. They are giving up 224.8 passing YPG (rank #27), and 6.6 YPA (rank #7). FO ranks the Charger pass D #9. Surprisingly, although the Chargers secondary is pretty damn good, they have sometimes struggled to defend the deep pass. We saw it last week against the Bengals, who often had three WRs open on plays of over 20 yards. Mahomes will almost take deep shots here.
The Chiefs should still be able to move the chains through the air against the Chargers. Mahomes still has TE Travis Kelce (86 catches for 1,159 yards and 10 TDs), and Kelce should be able to get open against a banged-up LA LB corps. Also, newly acquired WR Kelvin Benjamin should suit up this week. Benjamin was a total flop in BUF, but he's still a talented, former 1st round pick, and he should be better with a better QB, and Mahomes certainly is that.
I am still a little reluctant to bet a side here.
The power ratings that I use tell me that the Chiefs are the slightly better team. Fezzik ranks them as 1 point better on a neutral field, while Teddy Covers makes it half a point better. When we factor in a standard 3 point home field advantage, we come up with KC by 3.5 to 4 points. However, since the Chargers are now getting 4, it looks like we might have a little value on the Chagers.
The Chiefs are also 6-0 at home, but the Chargers are 5-1 on the road, so it’s not like the Chargers are a poor road team. They’re not.
The Chiefs have the better special teams. They are ranked #2 by FO. The Chargers are ranked #26, but they’ve gotten better.
The Chiefs also have the better coach. I’m still not sold on Chargers HC Anthony Lynn, but KC’s Andy Reid has a long and proven track record .
Still, I lean to the Chargers here.
The Chiefs won’t have a healthy Hill, Hunt is gone and Watkins and Ware are both out . The Chiefs now lack the playmakers they once had, and without Hunt and Ware they lack a running game and that makes them one dimensional and easier to defend.
The Chiefs are also coming off a grueling OT win against a hard hitting Ravens team, and now have to play on short rest. Teams off overtime games and then playing onThursday have a piss poor track record. Those teams are 6-26 ATS since 1989.
Philip Rivers is 24-11 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.
I’m still a little worried about the Chargers long history of shooting themselves in the foot, and Rivers’ equally long history of coming up small in big games, but the Chargers finally won a big game in PITT a couple of weeks ago. It was a game that they probably should have lost, but didn’t. They found a way, and I think that they find a way again tonight in KC.
Pick - LA Chargers +3 1st half (-110 for 1 unit),
Pick - LA Chargers +4 full game (-105 for 1 unit)
Pick LA Chargers ML (+171 for 1 unit)
Both of thee offenses are well equipped to exploit the weaknesses of the opposing team’s defense, and both should put up some points here, so I also grabbed the UNDER when it got to 52.5.
Pick – OVER 52.5 (-119 for 1 unit)