Entering the week 141st LVSC.. gonna grind to get into the top 100 and into the money.
Poor Last 3 weeks, but anyone who knows anything about sports betting knew regression was coming. Hitting 70% over a long term sample size isn’t unsustainable. Still way up for the year.. let’s add to that this week.
2* Dallas Cowboys -3.5 -110 *WINNER*
The cowboys have a history of not playing well after big wins, and they also have a history of not taking care of business as a home favorite. With that said, I still have to side with them in this game. This game likely will determine the winner of the NFC East, so neither team will lack any motivation. What the Eagles do lack, is the better team. I have the Cowboys 2.5 points better on a neutral field. The cowboys HFA has been much better this year, as they are 5-1 SU at home but only 2-4 SU on the road. Philly is 1-3 SU on the road, with one of those recent common opponents being the Saints, who dallas beat, but Philly was dismantled by. When dallas has the ball, they have an edge against a declining eagles run defense and decimated secondary. When dallas top tier defense is on the field, they have an edge against the eagles offense. It would be very dallas esque to screw this game up, but all my work strongly points to dallas as the right side.
2* Saints/Bucs UNDER 56 -110 *WINNER*
- At home this season, the Bucs defense has only allowed 19.3 PPG. They have 12 sacks in their last 3 games, and only allowed point totals of 16/9/17 at home in three of the last four weeks. Meanwhile, the Saints defense has allowed a score on only 8 of their last 38 possessions, and Brees has noticeable home/away passing splits. I am a believer in the second division matchup of the year being beneficial to the under, as both defenses have familiarity with the opposing offenses from the game before. Lastly, the forecast is calling for 13 MPH wind and rain. Wind in the 15 MPH range is what impcts totals negatively, and the rain certainly can’t hurt our case for under a BIG total.
2* Indianapolis colts +5 -110 *WINNER*
- Andrew Luck off a loss has been a dynamite situation, with him being 24-9 ATS off a loss. I am not so certain that there is a huge difference in these two teams.. Luck is playing elite ball, as he was on pace for 46 touchdown passes before last weeks debacle in JAX. They also are VERY well coached. Jonathan Joseph could be a big injury for the Texans, as they’ve not been able to contain Hilton in recent years, and they also have trouble vs tight ends which is a huge part of the Indy offense. Indy a very live dog here fighting for their playoff lives.
2* ADV Teaser: Browns +7.5/Patriots -1.5 -110 *LOSER*
- Car is 1-5 SU on the road YTD, with the one win being in a game they were down 17-0. With Cam injury, if they get up, do they really play aggressive to cover margin? Can this porous defense close backdoor? Strong Lean Cle to cover ATS. Patriots are 9-1 SU L10 in December. Likely No Xavien Howard is a BIG loss for Miami. Matchup wise, NE can run or pass at will vs them. Would be stunned if this became a let down spot for NE, who is playing for a bye.
2* San Francisco 49ers +4.5 -110 *WINNER*
- This is more of a play AGAINST Denver. They are a below average team in my rankings, and just lost their second best defensive player and their best receiver, both of whom were HUGE towards their success in the slot on offense and defense. Denver has been a HORRIBLE road team under VJ, and this is now their fifth road game out of seven.
2* Chicago Bears +3 -110 *WINNER*
- Matchup wise, it’s hard to make an argument for either team. The two things in favor of Chicago is the weather (20 degrees expected), and the power rating value on this game (I have it lined PK). Toss up game on who wins so I will gladly take three points. The Rams continue to be priced at a premium despite them only have two covers since week 3, while Chicago is being mispriced by the market still after an excellent ATS run before last weeks Giants loss.
2* Minnesota Vikings +3.5 -115 *LOSER*
- My numbers have Minnesota as a half point better on a neutral field. Let’s reflect on the lines these teams have had in the past few weeks. Minnesota was +2.5 at Chicago, and +4.5 at New England, two teams that I have rated clearly ahead of Seattle. Seattle was just laying 3 at home to GB, and getting 3 to Carolina, two teams I have rated interior to Minnesota. Seattle winning two 50/50 games vs GB/CAR, and MIN losing two road games agiants clear superior teams in comparison to Seattle (CHI/NE) don’t have me biting that Seattle is better on a neutral. I believe the line should be 3, giving us value by having the hook on MIN in a must win desperation game.