FYI. I am now on twitter. @ThthamanPregame. Will do my best to post there, as well in the forums, of course.
4* Buffalo Bills UNDER 6.5 Wins +100 *WINNER*
- I have the Buffalo Bills currently power rated as the worst team in the NFL. The Bills almost undeniably have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. AJ McCarron is the current starter, after he had to settle for a two year 10 million dollar contract on the open market. Josh Allen, considered to be one of the rawest quarterback prospects in recent draft history, will be his backup. Both quarterbacks likely need elite supporting talent to elevate their game, as they are both likely not capable of elevating the talent around them at this stage of their careers. The Bills possess a pass catching corps that is rivaled by only the Cowboys in the discussion of worst pass catchers in the NFL. The strength of last years team, the offensive line, is now missing last years teams three best lineman, their starting LT, LG, and C. The Bills offensive line transformed from a strength into arguably a bottom five offensive line. They do have one pro bowl caliber player on this offense in Lesean McCoy, but he can not carry this putrid supporting cast by himself. The Bills face the second toughest schedule of run defenses, which is gonna our even more on their quarterbacks plate. The Bills have an average defense that finished 16th in scoring, 21st in YPG, and 14th in YPP, hardly a unite that can carry this bad of an offense. The Bills were a fraudulent playoff team last season, as they had a -57 scoring differential, went 6-2 in one score games, and overachieved to a 5-2 record early in the season, before going 4-5 to finish the season, being blown out in all five losses. They were great at not turning the ball over, but that edge is now decreased mightily win the loss of Tyrod Taylor at QB. Their schedule for the first half of the season is BRUTAL (@BAL, LAC, @MIN, @GB, TEN, @HOU, @IND, NE).. which should lead to a 2-6 or 1-7 record before the raw and inexperienced Josh Allen likely begins to start games.
2* New England Patriots OVER 10.5 Wins -160 *WINNER*
- BOL has opened up season win totals. $500 limit, but will let you re bet them every minute to get the amount you want on them. I was going to wait until Vegas to place my wagers, but couldn’t wait on this one. I anticipate some 11’s being out there in Vegas, and I would bet those for 2* plays. At 11.5, I would stay away. The Patriots have one of the leagues easiest schedules based off projected season win totals of their opponents. HALF of their schedule is against teams that have a 7 or less projected season win total (MIA, NYJ, BUF, INDY, CHI) and 10 of their 16 games are against teams win a projected 8 wins or less (DET/TEN). The last time the Patriots failed to win 11 games was in 2009 (10-6), and in the 8 seasons since, they have not failed to win 12 games. The ONLY case somebody could make for their under is that “Brady might fall off a cliff”, but let’s face it, have we seen any signs of that happening, coming off a MVP season and elite performances against two top 5 defenses in the AFCC and Super bowl? If the Patriots thought he was regressing, is their anyway they trade Jimmy G during the middle of last season?
2* Atlanta Falcons OVER 9 Wins -115 *LOSER*
- If you can’t get to this number, I’d play O9 up to -130 which offshore is offering, or play O9.5 Small. First off, I have Atlanta power ranked slightly below Pitt/LAR, who have a much higher season win total. They are power ranked almost equally to NO, who have a half game higher season win total. And I have them slightly above GB, and way above the Chargers, who both have a higher season win total. The falcons have the 16th toughest schedule according to opposing teams season win numbers, which gives them a league average schedule, so there is no reasoning for the oddsmakers to have this total so low.. I would put it at 9.5 -120 or so. Atlanta was a play against team early in last season with a new coordinator and super bowl hangover, but towards the end of the year they began to play to their potential.. finishing the season 6-2 SU and winning a road playoff game at the Rams, and being yards away from winning at Philadelphia. Their defense really came alive, going under the total in seven straight games, while their offense has added another weapon in Calvin ridley and Matt Ryan is poised for positive touchdown progression. Had he just matched his normal touchdown rate of 4.6, he would have thrown four more touchdowns last season, and touchdown rate tends to be a more fluky stat. The Falcons are one of few teams (Philly being the other) that are good to above average at every single position.. QB, RB, Pass Catchers, Oline, DLine, LB, Secondary.. and even kicker. They won 11 games in 2016, and even in a year where everything seemed to go against them as far as super bowl hangover and new coordinator, they went 10-6 last year. This number has to be higher, and Atlanta deserves the same respect some other high win total teams are getting.
2* Indianapolis Colts UNDER 7.5 Wins -115 *LOSER*
- Fine to play this at 7 + MONEY. The Colts arguably have the worst roster in the NFL surrounding their quarterback. They possess an average offensive line, below average running backs, and average at best playmakers (Hilton/Doyle Are good players, but the complementary pass catchers are the leagues worst). Defensively, the Colts have the worst personnell in the NFL. If Luck is back to his pre injury elite form, the Colts will likely win 7-8 gAmes. If he is not playing at an elite level, there’s a very minimal chance Luck can carry his team to 8 Wins in a tough division.
2* Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 6.5 wins -130 *WINNER*
- Posted this ticket on twitter.. see some offshore sites varying from 5.5 to 6.5 at the moment I post this. COULD consider atempting to middle back a later date but as of now bet this as a 2*. The Bucs are one of the worst coached teams in then NFL IMO, and their is good info out there on how the team is so poorly coached on early downs in the first half of games, which typically puts them behind in games. If that does happen, the Bucs do face the toughest pass defense schedule in the NFL, which will hurt them in coming back from behind in games. The Bucs overall face the SECOND toughest schedule in the NFL based off opponents season win totals, including a hellacious start to the season @NO, PHI, PIT, @CHI, @ATL. It would not be stunning at all to see koetter be a lame duck or potentially already fired coach by the time midseason comes, and the distraction of Winston’s suspension certainly doesn’t help this team. Talent wise, the Bucs may only be slightly below average, but the coaching, distractions, and brutal schedule may U6.5 a solid play.
2* Minnesota Vikings WIN NFC North +125 *LOSER*
- Play Made week 2
2* Philadelphia Eagles WIN NFC East +110 *LOSER*
- Play made week 11
1* Tennessee Titans OVER 7.5 Wins -140 *WINNER*
- I thought the Titans were an overrated playoff team last season. However, that was not because of talent. I believe the coaching staff was well below average. Now, I liked the hires they made at HC/OC/DC, but the play is more about the teams talent being undervalued IMO.
The Titans have a solid QB who is now in a more friendly scheme towards his skill set. Lewis/Henry is a very good RB duo (upgrade from Murray). They have a good offensive line, and good, not great pass catchers. Defensively, I really liked the hire of Pees as the teams DC. The teams secondary consists of Ryan/Butler/Jackson at CB and a star safety in Byard. Casey is a star on the interior DLine. Their pass rush wasn’t awful to begin with, just a little old, and they did add EDGE Harold Landry in round 2 and draft inside LB Evans. The Titans also have the 8th easiest schedule based off this seasons projected season win totals, including seven games against projected bottom ten teams. I just flat out believe this roster is better then they are getting credit for and that they are receiving a coaching upgrade from last season.
1* San Francisco 49ers UNDER 9 Wins -120 *WINNER*
- If you can’t get 9, I’d wait because I expect it to creep up to that number as the offseason goes on.
1* Carolina Panthers UNDER 9 Wins -125 *WINNER*
-In 2017, the Panthers finished 11-5, going an incredible 8-1 in one score games, which is an unsustainable record. In a loaded NFC, there’s ten teams with an O/U of 8 or more, and some of these teams are going to have to lose games. I expect the Panthers to be one of the teams that takes a step back. Losing stud LG Andrew Norwell is a HUGE loss, and it leaves the Panthers with a bottom ten offensive line. The Panthers front 7 looks solid, despite losing Thomas Davis to suspension for four games, but the big question mark is a secondary that is extremely suspect at cornerback and way too heavily relying on 38 year old Julius Peppers for its outside pass rush. The Panthers are also undergoing a huge overhaul to their offense, by hiring 66 year old Norv Turner, who on paper doesn’t schematically fit Cam Newton’s strengths very well. The Panthers also lost their DC Steve Wilks from last season to Arizona. I’d line their season win total at 8.5, giving us value on the under.