FYI. I am now on twitter. @ThthamanPregame. Will do my best to post there, as well in the forums, of course. For PLAYER PROPS, I will be posting all of mine on twitter. Expect them to be extremely profitable as player personnell is one of my strengths.
3* Baltimore Ravens -3 -110 *WINNER*
- Got to this one when it first opened, so hopefully others did as well, but I have this game lined around Ravens -7. I would still bet this for a 2* up to -6. The bills are the worst team in the league according to my power rankings, and Ravens HC Harbaugh has been dominant SU and ATS with extra time to prepare for opponents. The Bills have a bottom 3 QB/WR/OLine situation, and were -57 in scoring differential last season, but miraculously made the playoffs due to turnover differential and good fortune, which has their lines inflated for this current season. The Ravens run game came around towards the end of last season with Alex Collins, and the team finished 5-2 SU to end the season, while the Bills run defense collapsed after the Marcell DAtreus trade, allowing 4.8 YPC and 156 rushing yards per game.
3* Minnesota Vikings -4.5 -110 *WINNER*
- I understand that 49ers public love fest after the way they finished 2017, but Whether you give Minnesota 3.5 or 4 for HFA, the line is off and should at least be -7. I Have Minnesota 4 points better on a neutral field, and the Vikings are also the BEST team in the NFL ATS at HOME since Zimmer has taken over. Just think, the Vikings closed -6 against the SAINTS in the playoffs, and now have improved their roster from last year by upgrading at defensive tackle with Sheldon Richardson, and upgrading at quarterback along with getting RB Dalvin Cook back. The Vikings have a clear edge on offense against the Reuben Foster less 49ers defense, which even with Foster, is average at best. The Vikings #1 rated defense in YPG, PPG, and 3rd down % has the clear edge against the 49ers offense, even if you believe that Jimmy G is a top ten quarterback (debatable). Very rare you get a game where you have clear matchup edges to go along with line value, that is also led by a tremendous coaching staff with a dominant HFA.
2* Bills/Ravens UNDER 42.5 -110 *LOSER*
- I do expect this total to close around 40, and see turnovers leading to quick scores being the only way we lose this total. We get two teams that struggle to throw the ball (both were bottom 5 in yards per pass attempt) and want to win games by running the ball and playing good defense. Sean McDermott as an DC/HC is 5-2 to the under in his last 7 season openers, while John Harbaugh’s Ravens is on a 4-0 under run in season openers, which typically happens when you give good coaches extra time to prepare. Both offenses were bottom 3 in YPP last season, while the Bills offense has gotten WORSE, losing 3 starting OL and downgrading at quarterback, while continuing to have arguably league worst pass catchers
2* Denver Broncos -1.5 -110 *WINNER*
The Denver Broncos have a DOMINATE SU and ATS record at home in weeks 1/2. This is a trend that has lasted 20+ years, and the logic behind it is that the altitude at Mile High fatigues the opposing team when they aren’t fully conditioned to play 60 minute games yet. The Seahawks are typically slow starters, while the Broncos have recently been fast starters to the season. The Seahawks have typically struffled on the road, even when they had a dominant team. The Seahawks one difference maker outside of Wilson on offense is Baldwin, who will be covered by the leagues best slot CB, Chris harris. They have weaknesses at TE, Outside WR, And Oline.. so I don’t see them moving the ball consistently aside from some Wilson Houdini Esque plays. Meanwhile, the Seahawks defense has regressed and the Broncos have a huge emotional lift, by having at least an average QB who gives them hope on that side of the ball. I have the game power rated broncos -3 so we do get value off a key number as well.
2* Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 -105 *WINNER*
- Waited a few months for this game, knowing it would move up once Luck began to play in the preseason. I have the Bengals rated as the better team on a neutral field, giving us at least a point of value over the most important number out there (3). There is also the possibility of rust for Andrew Luck in his first regular season game in 20 months. Luck needs to be at 100%, because the Colts are amongst the leagues thinnest teams in the league in playmaking personnel (aside from Hilton, covered by underrated CB William Jackson), and the Colts also arguably have the worst defensive personnel in the NFL. A team with huge questions at RB and Defense is not a team you should love to back as a favorite of over a FG.
2* Steelers/Browns UNDER 45.5 -110 *WINNER*
- Wind is the biggest determinent to totals, and their is some good info online on the effect it has on totals. 25 MPH winds are in the forecast, and this total likely bombs down once that info gets out to the public. Also, As everyone has known, Big Ben has noticeably different Home /away splits as well as likely no Bell.
2* Oakland Raiders 1H +3.5 +100 *WINNER*
- Like the side also, but like the 1H more.
1* Cleveland Browns +7 -125 *WINNER*
- The Browns are one of the toughest teams in the NFL to power rank. They have the talent of an average NFL team, but are power ranked below average because they have the leagues worst head coach in Hue Jackson, and a defensive coordinator who seemed to be out of touch last season with his defense (Gregg Williams). This team lost multiple games last season because of a league worst turnover margin, but now added one of the leagues least turnover prone quarterbacks in Tyrod Taylor, and surrounded him with numerous talented weapons such as Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, David Njoku, and a three headed talented running back core. The defense has an underrated front 7, finishing as last years second best run defense in yards per rush attempt. Offensively, the Steelers, despite being known for having a dynamic star running back, finished 25th in yards per rush attempt, and it’s a possibility that LeVeon Bell will come into the game with rust if he goes through with a August long holdout like he did in 2017. Big Ben has long had staggering home-road splits, and will have to play this game with a new offensive coordinator, while his old coordinator is now on the other sideline for the Browns. I have the game lined Browns +3.5, making it worthy of a play on the home dog against a team who has historically played down to their competition.