I see many folks already on Vikings this Thursday. While I am a lion fan, I do think there is more value than maybe the lions are getting credit for.
First, let's look at the Vikings. Yes, they are 8-2, but 1 of those loses has come at the hands of the lions. In fact, the lions have won the last three against them, all in dramatic fashion. Now the vikings coming off a huge game against the Rams, still have a short week on the road.
Let's also not get too high on Keenum. Yes he is in charge of an 8-2 football team, but he is also still a game-manager. The vikings aren't blowing anyone out these days. Just doing enough to win them some games. While that is all well and good, they are still playing a very opportunistic defense in the lions. Let's also acknowledge that the lions are top 10 in interceptions, fumbled recovered and defensive TD's. They also forced 3 fumbles against the vikings last game, including one to end the game.
Also since that is the fact that lions have opened up the offense. Statistically becoming tops in the NFL in deep passing plays. With Golladay healthy and Jones Jr. as a consistent deep threat, you have to watch for that, along with the pass catching out of the back field, and of course, Tate. Hell, even Ebron is starting to actually catch the ball. The offense has been playing much better since they have allowed Stafford to open it up.
Let's also parlay the above thoughts on close games played between these two teams with the fact that Stafford has been clutch in the last couple years.They were 9-4 last year before Stafford hurt his throwing hand, essentially ending their season.
I understand the narrative that the Stafford has a bad record against winning teams. Short and sweet: he entered a team that went 0-16, and has struggled with no defense at times and/or no running game at times, not to mention always having to have rodgers 2x/year. Despite not having a run game this year, they are still 6-4, which includes a "loss" to the falcons. They also had their opportunity against the Steelers as well. Say what you will, I trust Stafford much more than I trust Keenum.
What about the 6 sacks the vikings had last game? True, but for the second game in a row, the lions have all of their starters on the o-line. They still may be a work in progress, but it's a hell of a lot better than missing their starting RT most of the year, missing the left side of the line for spots as well. They should protect Stafford much better this time around.
A couple more thoughts to end with:
Lions have won their last 9 games in November. This also implies shaky starts to their seasons. That means they consistently get better as the season goes on.
Lions have won 4 straight Thanksgiving games. Think what you will, but this combined with a better November schedule is a pretty strong correlation.
Lastly, it's a division game with the North title and play off implications for both teams, but especially the lions. A win here is a sweep against the vikings and puts them in a great spot with a much easier schedule down the stretch than the vikings. If they lose, a wild card berth becomes a long shot.
I see the lions winning this game around that 23-16 mark, but think Lions +3 is a steal. Stafford and Prater will stay clutch and the D forcing a couple turnovers to slow the Keenum hype train for at least a week.
Otherwise, I love the Chargers, like the redskins as well.
Good luck to everyone as always.