3.5 * Minnesota Vikings PK -115 (Risking 4 UNITS to win 3.5) *WINNER*
- Call it a GOY, call it whatever you want. As everyone knows, I bet this game as a 3* play at PK -110. I’ve added a half unit to my bet on the ML, and adjusted the juice accordingly. I would bet this for a regular 3* play at -2.5 or -3, whichever line/juice you prefer to have. We get a super hot team, max motivated by losing three straight 50/50 games to Detroit. Big rushing edge for Minnesota on both sides of the LOS, and Zimmers Defense has jheld Staffords offense to 20 points or less in regulation all 7 times he has faced him. The Lions debatably got outplayed by the Browns and Lions in the past two weeks, and allowed 200+ rushing yards in both games. The pass rush is also one of the weaker ones in the NFL, and Case Keenum has only been sacked once in his last 200 pass attempts. The Lions are a below average roster that competes because of top end QB play.. but the Vikings are a team that has made Stafford look average. The Vikings finally have the offense to score on this weak lions defense, and have big matchup edges in the run game, as well as Adam Thielen and Kyle Rudolph. The only small matchup edge on the field for the Lions is Golden Tate in the slot, as Marvin Jones has been shutdown by Xavier Rhodes all three times they have played. The Lions are 28th in rushing offense, and the Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in rushing defense. Basically, the only way I see the Vikings losing this game is if they turn the ball over, and the Vikings are fifth in the nfl in not turning the ball over.
2* Pittsburgh Steelers -14 -110 *LOSER*
- The steelers really showed a willingness to open up the playbook at home last week. They were not scoring the same amount of points they were accustomed to at home earlier in the year, but that was against 1 good defense in the Bengals and 2 great defenses in Minnesota and Jacksonville. Last week, the offense blew up against the Titans, and I expect the same to happen against a bad Packers defense that has some key injuries in Kenny Clark and Clay Matthews. On offense, the Packers are injured at running back and offensive line, and have not been able to score on anyone since the Rodgers injury. This will be the best defense Hundley has faced all year, and it’ll be on the road in likely terrible game flow. I actually have the game lined -16, so we even get good value on the big favorite, which is rare.
2* Broncos/Raiders UNDER 43 -110 *WINNER*
- Jack del rio said the offensive focus of Oakland this week is to get Marshawn lynch going.. which means more running the ball.. Bad weather, and bad matchup for Oakland’s offense (Carr has struggled mightily against denver).. while the Broncos offense is putting in Lynch who couldn’t throw deep in practice as recently as a few weeks ago.. Line comes down IMO
2* Titans/Colts OVER 45 -120 *LOSER*
- The Colts bleed big plays in the passing game, and on the other side, Brissett is a vertical throwing passer who will be attacking a pass funnel defense that stops the run but has a weak pass rush and suspect secondary.
1* Dallas Cowboys ML +110 *LOSER*
- 5Dimes reduced.. obviously fine at even money.. sorry for the late post.. wanted to make sure Smith played..
1* Denver Broncos +5 -110 *LOSER*
1* Miami Dolphins +17 -120 *LOSER*