- 3* New England Patriots -9.5 -110 *LOSER*
I still have the Jets ranked as the second worst team in the NFL, despite a 3-2 record. The jets were gifted two wins after a muffed punt by the Jaguars in overtime, and were especially gifted a win last week, in a game they let the worst team in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns, out-gain them by over 200 yards. Only the Browns constant turnovers and missed field goals literally handed the Jets a win, or else this line would be even higher after the jets would be coming off an embarrassing loss to the Browns, who are 1-20 in their last 21 games. The Patriots defense has gotten torched against Deshaun Watson, Alex Smith, and Cam Newton at home, but has surprisingly played two excellent defensive games on the road against Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Mike Lombardi has stated that the Patriots defense is much more susceptible to scramblers, and that has shown in their performance this year. Josh McCown is immobile, and by far the worst quarterback in that group, with by far the worst supporting cast of those five quarterbacks. Any chance of the Patriots taking their foot off the gas pedal against this Jets team is gone since the Patriots actually come into this game tied in the standings with the Jets. Quite simply, in my mind, there is no chance the Vegas favorite to win the super bowl loses this game to the the Jets, and typically if you win the game, you cover the spread. The one game the Jets faced an explosive offense that could put some pressure on them, they got blown out by the Raiders, who have since shown that they are at best an average NFL team. The Patriots had the number one scoring defense last season, with very similar defensive personnel to what they have now. They feasted on terrible quarterbacks last year, and for the first time this season, they once again face a terrible quarterback. This is a kill spot for the Patriots, and I’ll take my chances of them covering the big number with confidence that there is no chance the Jets can win this game.
2* LA Rams +3 -115 *WINNER*
The situation in this game favors the Rams, coming off a loss, while the young Jags are coming off of one of the biggest wins in recent memory for their team. My power ratings have this game around PK, which was the look ahead line, so I do think the Rams are the value play in this game. The rams run defense statistics overall have been subpar, but one statistic they have done excellent at is first down run defense, being 4th in the NFL only allowing 2.57 YPC. The key to Jacksonville is to put Bortles into second/third and long. Meanwhile, the Jags are 32nd in the NFL allowing 6.88 YPC on first down, so I do think the Rams can win on early downs against this Jags team, something that is do crucial to success in the NFL, especially with two young quarterbacks. The Jags defense is legit, but I do think Sean McVay and this Rams offense can attack them and have a respectable showing, just like they did against Seattle, who they easily could have scored in the 20’s against if not for crucial turnovers when they were in field goal range as well as a missed field goal. This Rams offense is one of the best in the league at attacking opposing defenses, while the Jags are stuck playing a 1980’s type of offense, that is averaging more rushing yards per game then passing yards per game. This game comes down to me not yet trusting the jags in a positive situation for the rams, as well as their being line value for the rams.
2* San Francisco 49ers +10.5 -120 *WINNER*
Yes, the 49ers are not in an ideal travel spot, playing a early start time game for their third straight road game, two ending in overtime. But this team has been ultra competitive this season, losing their last four games by 11 points. Now, a league average team in the Redskins is projected to beat this team by 11 points? The Redskins are minus their top defensive player in Josh Norman, and unknown is how banged up the Redskins top offensive players surround cousins, Trent Williams, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder is, even coming out of a bye. Rob Kelley is likely inactive as well. Even considering the 49ers travel, this game should be lined around -8 IMO, so we get good value on the 49ers, a winless team who has played their ass off, and covered against the Seahawks and Rams, at a key number.
2* Carolina Panthers -3 -125 *LOSER*
This ones simple. The Panthers HFA is worth 3, and the Panthers are 1-1.5 points better on a neutral field in my power ratings. The eagles will be without stud RT Lane Johnson, who was a crucial part of this offensive line. Carson Wentz last year had a 5-1 record, 65% completions 6.95 YPA, and a 10-2 TD/INT ratio with him in the lineup, but a 2-8 record, 61% completion, 5.87 YPA and 2-8 TD/INT ratio without him. The Eagles haven’t been the best road team under Doug pederson, going 3-8 SU. The Panthers are the superior team, and one of the hotter teams in the league right now, making them the value play at -3.
2* LA Chargers +4 -110 *WINNER*
No way the Ralders can be laying 4 with a less then 100% Carr facing a division rival who is one of the best teams in the nfl in an underdog role. Line closes 3..
1* Cleveland Browns +10.5 -120 *LOSER*
The Texans defense is banged up, to the point where they are currently a below average defense. Watson has been excellent and I do expect Houston to get their points, but this browns team has seemed to be uplifted by the presence of hogan, who will be replacing Kizer, who has the lowest QBR in the NFL by a wide margin. If Kizer didn’t turn the ball over constantly , the Browns would not be winless right now. Worth a shot at a very small play.
1* Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 -110 *WINNER*
The Steelers have proven to be a mentally tough team under Tomlin and Big Ben. Every year it seems they lose games they aren’t supposed to, but come up big in big games. The Steelers have outplayed the chiefs in consecutive matchups last year, and the Chiefs weaknesses, which is run D (Houston was able to run on them last week, but game flow skewed the amount of yards they got), and second corner are two weaknesses Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell can expose. The chiefs are also banged up going into this game, with question marks surrounding their starting center, guard, Travis Kelce, Justin Houston.. and this team lost their second WR Chris Conley, and their third WR Albert Wilson is questionable. I do expect Big Ben to respond to the criticism of his play in a positive way, as he’s done throughout his career.
1* Browns/Texans OVER 47 -110 *WINNER*
Cluster injuries to the texans defense... I expect this team to become a full out over team with the aggressiveness Watson has shown on offense, while Hogan gives this browns offense a boost.