My Prediction:
Las Vegas will NEVER lose another Super Bowl to the Bettors again!
I can’t know this for sure - but I certainly would bet that I am right.
(well, as long as we settled up within 20 years or so)
Background:
The state of Nevada has required separate accounting on Super Bowl action for 27 years now. Vegas has won (in net) 25 years, with the bettors winning only 2 years.
Bettors won in …
* 1995 (49ers/Chargers) - big favorite that large majority backed plus the “over” cashing.
* 2008 (Giants/NE) - huge underdog winning the game = big Money line payoff.
[once-a-year bettors often don’t understand the spread, and they don’t like the idea of betting more to win less (i.e., favorite ML), so novices disproportionally bet the underdog on the money line]
Here’s the thing … I strongly believe neither scenario would result in the bettors winning (in net) any longer. The reason is PROPS.
At many sportsbooks, OVER HALF the handle is on props. Consider that there are 400+ props offered, and the Vig on them is quite high on average. This combination of diversification and high theoretical hold percentage makes it nearly impossible for sportsbooks to lose overall on props.
Additionally, though it is not widely known, all Super Bowl “Futures” action is included in the annual Super Bowl accounting. This is yet another pool of action that bookmakers will rarely lose on.
Here’s a quote from Nevada sportsbook William Hill to CBS: "The favorite covered. The total went over. All the popular props cashed."
Very true – and still Nevada sportsbooks held nearly 8% of the overall handle! A child picking from a hat laying 11-10 would only lose 4.76% over the long run.
And that’s why I don’t see any reasonable way Las Vegas will ever lose another Super Bowl to the bettors. It’s my recommendation that you bet accordingly.