The Super Bowl provides a unique opportunity for contrarian bettors to find value. Due to the influx of recreational money public perception influences the line more than usual. Someone with a correct opinion that goes against the grain has a real advantage. The key word in that last sentence is "correct". I've seen too many bettors blow up making contrarian bets for the sake of being contrarian without the proper logic backing them up. It's always fun to have action on the Super Bowl so luckily for us we have strong logic that backs up an unpopular take on the game.
Exhibit A: This week's cover of Sports Illustrated
Wrong. This game will not be high scoring. I like the UNDER 58 and I will tell you why.
1. The public is overvaluing both teams' offenses based on their last game (and keep in mind bookmakers set lines in anticipation of public action for high profile events). The Falcons' offense looked terrific but they played a team, the Packers, with cluster injuries in the secondary. This inflated the Falcons' stats on offense. Those types of numbers won't be replicable against a healthier secondary. Plus the Packers were a very tired team from having to fight so hard just to make the playoffs and also had to play the wildcard round while the Falcons were off.
The Patriots' offensive numbers in their last game were artificially inflated due to the fact their opponent deployed a suboptimal defensive strategy. The Steelers chose to use and stick with an ineffective zone against the Patriots. The book on Tom Brady is he is least effective when pressure is brought against him and most effective when he has time to sit back and pick a defense apart. The Patriots won't have the same good fortune of being able to exploit poor schematics against Falcons' coach Dan Quinn, who has the reputation as a defensive guru and was the architect of the Seahawk defense that won the Super Bowl. Quinn won't be afraid to bring pressure, which brings me to my next point.
2. The Falcons' defensive line is underrated. The Falcons defensive line is young and has been improving each game this season. Often in college football you will see a young team in a bowl game that doesn't the least bit resemble what they looked like in September. It would be foolish to base your analysis of them on their early performance and the same is true for this defensive line. Check out this quote from Quinn in which he gives a reason for the late season improvement:
“At the end of the day, as long as somebody’s making plays, that’s all that matters,” Freeney said. “You want to have the total team defense work.” Quinn has a similar philosophy. On Monday, he described rushing the passer like playing basketball, when “four or five people have to work in concert together.”
http://www.atlantafalcons.com/news/blog/article-1/Pass-Rush-Coming-Together-for-Falcons/3f88a29a-4341-43a2-84b5-3bd4daee203f)
It's taken time but the Falcon's defensive line has learned to play together. The fact that this unit of their team is underrated adds special value to the under considering the optimal strategy for slowing down Tom Brady is to pressure him.
3. The third reason I like the under is a combination of Bill Belichick's brain and Julio Jones' toe. Belichick likes to take away the opposing team's top option and force them to try to beat him with their other players. Belichick will focus on shutting down Julio Jones but he won't have to commit as many resources as he normally would due to the fact Jones isn't 100% healthy. Jones has been dealing with a nagging toe injury that the public isn't properly factoring into its handicap because he looked strong against the Packers with 180 yards receiving and two td's. However this was due in large part to the cluster injuries in the Packer's secondary as well as fatigue. A healthy Jones would have had 250-300 yards in that game. I think it's safe to say this is the most excited a coach has been about a toe since Rex Ryan.
4. The Falcons will be nervous. The Falcons are a young team without any recent Super Bowl experience. Nerves have a greater effect on a team that likes to chuck it around like the Falcons as opposed to a ground and pound style offense. This isn't being properly factored into the total.
5. Kyle Shanahan is distracted. It's no secret that Falcon's offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is probably going to be the next head coach of the 49ers. According to USA Today Shanahan will be spending time in San Francisco before the Super Bowl.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/falcons/2017/01/26/kyle-shanahan-san-francisco-49ers-atlanta/97100864/
I think this will be a problem for Shanahan due to his personality. Look at this quote from Brian Hoyer, who played QB for the Browns while Shanahan was the offensive coordinator:
“That’s the one thing I really admired about Kyle. You knew when he was there, he was putting the work in, that’s all he was focused on. He might walk by you in the hallway, and you’d say, ‘Hey what’s up, Kyle?’ and he’d keep walking."
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/19/qb-who-played-for-both-thinks-kyle-shanahans-like-bill-belichick/
I don't think someone with his type of mentality and focus will be able to adjust to this life changing distraction without his preparation suffering some. He is used to giving everything he has to the task at hand and now his attention is split in a major way. Shanahan has been so key to the resurgence of the Falcons so to have him out of rythm is a big deal. This is a negative for their offense that is not being properly factored into the total.
6. There is familiarity between management of these franchises. Many people don't realize that the Falcons are run by two former Patriot executives in GM Thomas Dimitroff and assistant GM Scott Pioli. Their rosters are constructed similarly and in the sports betting world familiarity between teams tends to equal unders. Because these teams haven't played each other recently the public isn't factoring familiarity into their analysis despite the fact that the level at which it exists-upper management- is potentially more significant than previous head to head matchups.
(*Note: Belichick and Quinn have experience going against each other in the Super Bowl two years ago. The fact that they have already faced each other on the biggest stage should help the under.)
RJ Bell is frequently extolling the virtues of the Pregame forums but in my opinion he always leaves out the top one. Laying out your logic for the world to see makes you a better bettor. You can help yourself while at the same time helping others. Pretty cool when you think about it. Unfortunately it makes the losses sting beyond the wallet. This is an area I continue to struggle with, though I have made some improvements thanks to mental coaching from David Malinsky. The unfortunate truth is if this pick loses you might not see me for a while so I want to end this with a special shout-out to all the friends I have made on here over the years (you know who you are). Enjoy the game and don't risk more than you can afford to lose.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: UNDER 58