3* Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 -115 *WINNER*
I've had my eye on the Steelers since last week. The NFL lines are extremely sharp during the playoffs, so it's hard to find a ton of value on any line. However, I do love the matchup in this game. I've been down on the Dolphins all year, even during their hot streak, and now that they have come back down to earth, now is a perfect time to fade them. The early down success rate numbers favor the steelers, especially in the running game. The Steelers are number 6 in EDSR for run offense and number 4 for run defense. The Dolphins are 27th in run offense EDSR, and 25th in run defense. Matt Moore is not the type of quarterback that can win games when faced with unfavorable downs and distances, especially in projected 20 degree weather. I can not envision a scenario where the Dolphins defense is going to be able to stop the Steelers. The Dolphins have a solid front four, but a very poor back seven, and their top two players in their back seven, Byron Maxwell and Jelani Jenkins, are questionable for this game. The Dolphins have lost both their starting safeties to injury, which means they could be without three of their original starting four secondary players. I don't see one player on the Dolphins that is able to stop, or even contain Antonio brown. The steelers will also be getting back Ladarius Green, a difference making pass catcher for this team, and will be the healthiest they've been all season. If the Dolphins want to use all their resources to cover the steelers passing game, then they will be unable to stop LeVeon Bell, arguably the best running back in the NFL. The Dolphins have the 30th ranked run defense in the NFL, and likely will not be able to stop him unless they load the box and leave the steelers weapons singled up outside. It's a pick your poison matchup for this Dolphins defense. The steelers have scored 24+ in ten straight starts for Big Ben at home, and I honestly expect them to score 30 plus in this game, which may lead to a potential play on the total as well. The steelers offense should put enormous pressure on Matt Moore to score points, and I don't think he can sling the ball with Big Ben for four quarters. Matt Moore is a gunslinger, and will push the ball downfield. He will also likely turn it over, as he has thrown an interception in all three of his starts this season. The Dolphins are not a cold weather team, as they let up 38 and 31 points on the road to the Ravens and Bills offense recently. The steelers are on a 7 game win streak, and in the 6 games where their starters played the whole game, they allowed more then 20 points only once. The steelers play more of a "bend don't break" defense, which forces quarterbacks to be precise throughout long play drives, something I can't see Matt Moore doing consistently. It may seem like a lot of points, but I think The steelers offense can name their score on this Dolphins defense.
2* Lions/Seahawks OVER 43.5 -110 *LOSER*
The 2016 Seahawks offense has been flat out below average on the road this season. At home, they have scored 24 or more in seven straight games, and now face a deteriorating lions defense that has allowed 42 and 31 points in their last two games. The weakness of the Seahawks is the teams porous offensive line, but luckily for them, the lions rank second to last in the NFL in sacks. The lions this season allowed a league record 72.7% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks and a NFC high 33 touchdown passes. They also allowed a combined 80 rushing yards to Dak Presscott and Aaron Rodgers, and running is something Russell Wilson, who may be removing his knee brace for this game, can do. The lions run defense has also been leaky over the past six games, allowing running backs to gain 4.55 YPC. The weakness of the Lions pass defense is their slot coverage and tight end coverage, which is the strength of the Seattle passing game. Against the competent offenses the Seahawks have faced since losing Earl Thomas (sorry, LA and SF), the Seahawks have allowed point totals of 38 and 34 to the packers and cardinals offenses. The lions offense has been playing faster over the past two weeks, and reports say they want to keep RB Zach Zenner in a workhorse role because his presence on the field allows the team to run no hidden more often. The lions trying to jumpstart the offense with more no huddle is a detriment to their defense, which obviously benefits this play.
1* Dolphins/Steelers OVER 44.5 -125 *LOSER*
Personal choice to buy it down to this number. 45 is A okay to play, or even 45.5. Dolphins games have went OVER the total in six straight games and I've already expressed my feelings on the Steelers offense in this matchup. Matt Moore is a gunslinger type of back up quarterback and I think he can get the 14-17 points necessary in this one, since I fully expect Pittsburgh to score 30+. With how confident I am in the Pittsburgh offense, I find it very unlikely we lose the totals play and the side play