3* New England Patriots -6 -110 *WINNER*
When the Patriots are fully focused and intent on smashing a team, they typically do it. This trend has gone back to 2003, where the Patriots lost 31-0 in an embarrassing loss to Buffalo, and then bounce back to beat them 31-0 in their revenge game later in the season. When New England was embarrassed two years ago by KC and they had their backs against the wall the next week against Cincinnati, they embarrassed Cincinnati in a blow out win. When they lost home field advantage in a loss to Miami last season, they bounced back by dominating Miami in a game reporters said belichick was "obsessed with". When they played the colts after deflate gate, they dominated the colts and covered despite an extremely inflated spread. Their are even more examples I can go into about this but you get the point. The Bills embarrassed the patriots four weeks ago, and they were quite vocal in the media about the ass whooping they gave the Pats. There was even a pre game fight that the Bills instigated that resulted in the Bills shoving a patriots assistant coach. Expect a pissed off Patriots team. The line isn't inflated in my opinion. Pittsburgh with Landry Jones is considered to be an average team by most, and Buffalo is an average team. Pittsburgh was getting 7.5, Buffalo is getting 6, so I'm surprised the line is under 7 to be honest. It's one thing to be motivated and pissed, but the Patriots are also the far superior team. Nobody is better at taking away a teams best attributes better then Belichick. That can explain why Tyrod Taylor averages 25 rushing yards per game against the Pats, but 40 Ypg against the rest of the NFL. Expect BB to keep Taylor in the pocket and spy him with the most athletic linebacker possibly in the NFL, Jamie Collins. The Bills when healthy have poor weapons. They could be without McCoy, Goodwin, Robert woods. If that is the case, their weapons will pathetically be Mike Gillisee, Justin Hunter, Walter Powell, and Charles Clay. The Bills will also likely be without their safety Aaron Williams, who is a key cover guy in the back end for them. The Patriots have won every game by double digits since Brady's return, two of those games being on the road. This may be considered a "public square play", but the work backs up the pick. New England comes out motivated, angry, and tries to prove a point against Buffalo.
2* Seahawks/Saints OVER 47.5 -110 *LOSER*
One of the big factors in this game is the Seahawks defensive fatigue. The Seahawks defense on Sunday night played more minutes then any other defense in NFL history. Pete Carroll himself said "these guys couldn't walk off the field. They were so drained". Richard Sherman, who rarely turns down a chance to talk, got carried around the locker room and did not answer questions because of how physically drained he was. Now the Seahawks are traveling to New Orleans, to face the leagues number 2 offense in yards per game, and a team that averages 7 yards per play in home games. The Super Dome has been a track meet for high scoring games. The last 9 games played in the super dome have had point totals of 52, 101, 62, 79, 62, 65, 69, 77, and 79. These games have not only went over the projected total of 47.5, but they have blown past the projected total. Seattle on Sunday night were severely outmatched in the trenches against Arizona, but that won't be the case against the pathetic saints defense. Before that game against Arizona, the Seattle offense had actually began to get rolling, with team point totals of 37, 27, and 26. If the Saints can jump on a tired saints team early, which think may happen, especially since the saints play with the number 3 pace rating in the NFL, Wilson has been a great Coke from behind quarterback throughout his career and should have little trouble carving up this Saints defense. The oddsmakers made this total so low because of the Seahawks top ranked defense, but I think multiple factors suggest that we see another super dome high scoring game in this one.
1* San Diego Chargers +5 -110 *LOSER*
The Chargers have been money against the spread in the underdog role this season, going 4-1 ATS with the only loss being a late collapse against the Colts. The team could realistically be 7-0 right now if not for these late game collapses. Luckily, we are getting a lot of points with them, just like last week against Atlanta. I will admit, I wish the line was bigger or else I would have played this bigger. Denver was -3 two weeks ago in San Diego, and now Denver is only -5 at home. I was on Denver that game, but I think I was just flat out wrong and underrated San Diego. Rivers is excellent at man coverage beating plays, and that showed two weeks ago when he consistently went after the Broncos linebackers and safeties in pass coverage. San Diego is on a 21-9 run as an underdog ATS. This Denver team has shown a little vulnerability in my opinion. They haven't got the same push in the pocket and their run defense has been average this season, which could be a result of losing Malik Jackson and Danny Trevethan in the offseason. Still an elite defense, but not last years unreal dominant defense. The broncos Oline has struggled a lot this year and now had to go against the Chargers underrated front that has Corey Liuget, Brandon MeBane, and stud rookie Joey Bosa. I think this ends up being a field goal at the end type game, as many of the Chargers previous games have been.
1* Indianapolis Colts +3 -130 *LOSER*
The Chiefs are not the team most people think they are. They have a reputation of being a top notch defensive team, but they have struggled this season, and desperately need Justin Houston to return. The Chiefs rank dead last in quarterback sacks and hits this season. They are also very vulnerable at cornerback opposite Marcus peters. The colts are likely to get Donte Moncrief back from injury this week, and have star wideout TY Hilton playing in the slot. The Chiefs run defense has also struggled This season, allowing 4.76 YPC to opposing running backs. This sets up as a potential big game for Andrew Luck at home. When opposing offenses score 21+ and Alex Smith can't be hidden, his teams struggle. That explains Alex smith's 9-43 SU record when opposing teams score more then 21 points. Andrew Luck has been spectacular in a home underdog role, going 10-0 ATS in his last ten games in that role. KC is an average team in my opinion and should not be laying 3 on the road to this Colts team.
1* Minnesota Vikings -4 -110 *LOSER*
This is a square, "trap" line. I am biting on it, because I truly believe the matchup and situation is in our favor. The Bears have one of the worst home field advantages in the NFL (2-9 ATS at home last 11 games). The Bears are last in the NFL in PPG, and the Vikings defense is first in the NFL in PPG. Jay Cutler has been sacked 8 times in 6 quarters this season, and now will be without LG Josh Sitton and possibly RG Kyle Long. That could potentially be a huge problem against the A and B gap pressures that Mike Zimmer sends, which put a ton of pressure on the interior offensive line of opposing teams. Rumors have come out that John Fox is mentally done with Cutler as his quarterback, and Cutler seems aware of the rumors, saying "I guess Fox doesn't have a choice at this point" when asked about him starting Monday's game. Cutler has a tendency to appear like he does not care, and since he knows the organization has given up on him, this could be a spot we see "I don't Care" Cutler, which is a Cutler that takes a lot of sacks and forces passes into tight windows, while also showing no leadership qualities. Cutler's one source of offense is Alshon Jeffery, but he will be lining up against Xavier Rhodes, who has shut down OBJ, Hopkins, and Kelvin Benjamin this season. Mike Zimmer has been a money making machine on the road ATS, and should have his team fully motivated for this game. Zimmer called his offensive line "soft" after the Philadelphia game, and was enraged at the team for their last road let down. I consider the Eagles an average team, and the Bears way below average, yet the line is only a point different from last week, so I see big line value in this game and an overreaction to the Vikings loss last week. The Bears do not have the front 7 that can take advantage of the Vikings poor offensive line as effectively as the Eagles did. Stefon Diggs carved up Vic Fangio's defense last season, going for stat lines of 9 catches, 150 yards, and 3 touchdowns in two games against his defense. Zimmer has called his team out because he constantly says "this team can be a special, special team". He has this team believing in how sky high their potential is. Minnesota takes care of business in a game they "should" win.
1* Houston Texans ML -130 *WINNER*
Lions defense is in shambles, and will now be without their best corner Darius Slay. Lions will be starting a career special teamer in his place. Houston has a big, big mismatch in Fuller and Hopkins against these corners. The Texans are awful on the road against top teams but typically take care of business at home against average or below average opponents. The lions are also an awful team when they are coming off winning streaks, and this lions team has won three straight home games coming into this game, while the Texans got embarrassed on MNF in Denver. The way to attack Houston is to attack their run defense but the Lions are one of the worst running teams in the NFL. A bit pricy but Houston straight up at home is to much value to pass on.
1* Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 -110 *LOSER*
1* Eagles/Cowboys UNDER 44 -110 *LOSER*
1* Atlanta Falcons -3 -105 *LOSER*