The regular season is over, and my favorite time to handicap is here. I like one game enough to make it the GOW and leans on two other games but not sure if I will play them yet.. I will never play a game just to play it.. If I fire on anything else I will let the forum know
Thank you everyone for the support during the regular season. It's my dream to one day do this professionally, I work my ass off to give quality picks every week and I'm proud to say that these results have been 100% documented and are 100% real. It's been a hell of a run these last two years but there is more money to be made.
3* Houston Texana +3.5 -115 GOW *LOSS*
Yes, the Chiefs have won ten games in a row. But this Texans team is hot as well, and there is extreme value on this line. Usually I love to break down the matchup for each team.. And I'm not gonna lie, I see a tough matchup for both offenses and can't make an argument that either offense will have much success. But this line is out of wack.. these two teams are poised for a grind it out, defensive game and we have the home team getting 3.5 points.. It's an easy decision to take the points. KC has beat up on some bad teams, barely getting by some teams like the Browns and Chargers at home. All the talk is about how houston can't block houston and Hali coming off injuries, but there is no talk about a below average Chiefs line having to block watt and Mercillus. Early in the year when the OLine wasn't protecting smith, he had an alarming tendency to drop his eyes when the Rush was coming. In fact, this season, smith is completing 72% of his passes with no pressure, but an alarmingly bad 38.2% when he is under pressure. My bet is that Houston creates havoc on Smith. I can't tell you that Houston wins this game outright, but there is extremely good value on this home team getting 3.5 points In a toss up game.
1* Steelers/Bengals over 44.5 -110 *LOSS*
This number has dropped below the key number of 45 and I have to fire on it. In 5 road starts this season where Big Ben played the entire game, the steelers have dropped point totals of 17,21,28,30,33, which shuts down a perception that the steelers offense hasn't been that effective on the road, although they have been stronger at home. The main reason for this play is the Gameplan that I am anticipating from both coaching staffs. Pittsburgh has lost Deangelo Williams for this game, and has no Serviceable running back playing against a stout bengals run D. Cincy is more vulnerable through the air, and I expect Pittsburgh to air the ball out. Look for a few deep shots to Martavis Bryant after Ben called him out in the media. This Bengals defense is very good but there weakness is the pass defense, which fits the steelers strength. The Bengals have plus matchups at every pass catching skill position player, as the steelers weakness is there secondary. There strength is clearly there run D. AJ McCarron is a confident player, and allegedly rubbed people off for being to cocky and confident. That means I don't expect him to come into this game with the "game manager" mentality, he knows he needs to put up points against big ben, and believes he can sling it with him. McCarron has also thrown the majority of his passes towards the sideline this season, which usually mean big plays that stop the clock, incompletions that stop the clock, etc. We have two teams who's gameplan should be to throw the ball all over the field, which usually benefits the over.
1* Washington Redskins PK -110
Rodgers 1-11 SU on the road last 12 against winning teams.. Gonna ride this trend and the packs poor play