LONDON: (-3.5) MIAMI (1 - 2) vs. OAKLAND (0 - 3) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Bad Team Worse Than Believed
The public typically bets favorites
which makes them more EXPENSIVE
so the Wiseguys typically back underdogs
But sometimes a BAD team is actually WORSE
than the public believes.
That’s the case with Oakland
They’ve gained the least yards in the NFL
and scored the least points
(and of their 4 offensive touchdowns
3 have been during garbage time)
Raiders Travel
Oakland has had two recent East Coast trips
and now London
Come kickoff on Sunday
The Raiders will have traveled almost 16,000 miles in the prior in 21 days
Talk of Miami's Internal Struggle Affecting Line
Has all the gossip discouraged bettors from backing Miami?
If you had bet this game
BEFORE last week’s games
Miami was favored by 7 points
***OTHER
Raiders vs. team with losing record: 34% ATS (43-84-2 since 1993)
Oakland not throwing downfield with Carr (only ONE completion of 30 yards or more)
Tannehill discontented with Dolphins
but Wiseguys feel like the team is disorganized in general (and on both sides of the ball)
(-1.5) GREEN BAY (1 - 2) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Vegas Reaction to GB’s Slow Start
NOT over-reacting . . .
ESPN has the Packers ranked 17th
Vegas has them 10 slots higher … as the 7th best team
Bears overrated
Chicago’s winning record is deceiving
when you dig deeper: The Bears have the 4th WORST yardage-differential in the entire league.
Factors point to GB
Green Bay NEEDS this game
and Chicago is banged up
Packers have covered 10 of 13 vs. Chicago
Line Value on Green Bay
The last 6 times Green Bay as traveled to Chicago
The Packers have been AT LEAST a field goal favorite in every game
***OTHER
Bears struggle against the run
but Packers are not a strong running team.
Bears have covered only 6 of last 19 games ATS
Bears 2-10 ATS in division
GB: 34-15 ATS in Division (including 12 of last 17 ATS)
GB: in division off loss: 14-3-1 ATS
Packers: 6-1 ATS at Chicago
Bears when over/under total greater than 44: 15-40 ATS
Bears off Monday Night road game and Sunday Night road game week before that.
GB: 28th most yards in NFL
Green Bay: 5th worst yardage differential
Chicago: Least rushing yards in NFL
Packers downgraded by 3 points by Vegas since start of season (but still ranked as the 7th best team)
Early line (before last week’s games): GB -3
Chicago opened -1.5
(+3) BUFFALO (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Both teams overrated
Houston has been outgained (yardage-wise) in all 3 games
Buffalo has lost the First Down battle in all three games – by a total of 26 First Downs
Arian Foster:
Houston RB Arian Foster: Game Time Decision
Worth approximately ONE POINT to spread
Bills Home/Road
In Bills games, true home teams are 16-4 against the spread (disregarding games in Canada)
Meaning that Buffalo covers at home - and doesn’t cover on the road
***OTHER
Bills last 44 games: LOST against the spread by a NET 127 points combined
Buffalo not throwing downfield with QB Manuel
(+7.5) TENNESSEE (1 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Most Recently
Colts looked great.
Tennessee looked horrible
83% of bets on Colts so far (http://SportsbookSpy.com)
Big Trends for Colts
Colts crush losing teams: 13-3 against the spread
Colts dominate in division: 10-2 against the spread
Motivation Issues for Indy
Colts: NFL teams after starting season 0-2, then winning the 3rd game, and then favored in the 4th game: 3-18 ATS
Jake Locker
If Locker plays, this line should be around 7
If Locker doesn’t play, expect around 9.5
***OTHER
Prior 2 seasons combined, Colts have been outgained by opponents
(Indy made playoffs both years)
Indy started the season ranked by Vegas as an average team – upgraded by 2 points since.
Much better at home - Luck’s career:
Won 14-4 SU (12-6 ATS) at home; 10-10 SU on road (11-9 ATS)
And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 5 of 20 ATS
Home team in Titans games has covered only 5 of last 19
NFL Road underdog off a road loss: 63% ATS last 12 seasons
Tennessee – 6th best yardage differential in NFL (better than Indy at #8)
Early line (before last week’s games): Indy -6
(+3.5) CAROLINA (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Carolina overrated
Vegas projected the Panthers to be worse than .500 this season
They started hot – and people remembered last year’s 12 win team
Carolina has been outgained (yardage-wise) on the season
In ESPN poll, Carolina ranked around 10th
In the eyes of Vegas, Carolina is ranked 20th
Baltimore strong home field
Last 53 home games, Baltimore has won 43
Steve Smith factor
New Ravens receiver Steve Smith played for Carolina for many years
Knowledge of Carolina offense may be helpful to Ravens
Plus, he left on bad terms – which could energize his new team
***OTHER
Cam Newton has struggled against 3-4 defenses.
Ron Rivera, in three prior seasons, has started seasons 1-5 SU and 1-6 SU and 1-3 SU (2013) . . . 2-1 in 2014
Cam Newton in one-score games: 7-14 SU in career (won last 5)
Rd Dog: Carolina: 8-1 ATS as a road underdog
TE Dennis Pitta out for Baltimore
(-1.5) DETROIT (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Public loves Detroit
Lions look better on paper
or in a video game (football sexy)
than they actually perform on the field
Detroit (overall since 2011): 20-32 ATS
86% of bets so far on Detroit.
Detroit in bad situation:
Do not respond well to success
Lions after a win: covered next game only 4 of 18 times
Road Favorite: Lions 4-16 ATS
Strong Jets Trend
When the Jets lose a home game
and then play the next game at home: 17-2 ATS
Matchups favor Detroit:
Jets have to rely on Geno Smith too much if they can’t run:
Detroit is giving up the 2nd FEWEST rushing yards in the league.
On the other hand:
Detroit is a passing team
and the Jets struggle in the secondary
***OTHER
Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 23-40-3
Jets as a home favorite: 53-88 ATS
Geno Smith: 25 ints and fumbles last year. Only 12 TD passes.
55% of passes complete last year.
Week 1: 82% of passes. 1 TD pass. But 2 turnovers last week.
Week 2: only competed 50% of passes. 1 Int (1 TD)
Week 3: 1 TD pass. 2 Ints
Detroit has yielded the fewest yards in NFL.
Jets have yielded the second fewest (including the best rush D)
Detroit has the 2nd best yardage differential in NFL
Jets have 3rd best yardage differential in NFL
(+7.5) TAMPA BAY (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Most Recently
Pitt looked about as good as possible on national TV
Tampa looked about as bad as possible on national TV
Bucs: NFL Underdogs who lost by 30+ points last week: 61% ATS (122-79-9 since 1990)
How bad is Tampa?
Tampa is 0-2 SU vs. backup QBs this season
and lost by 42 points in its one game vs. a starter
New Tampa QB
TB: least passing yards in NFL
Tampa: QB Glennon to start
Vegas is making NO adjustment for this change
***OTHER
Pittsburgh: Extra thin at corner after Ike Taylor injury.
Steelers: 1-7 ATS in September
Steelers rushed for 264 yards vs. Carolina last week
Pittsburgh leading league in rushing yards
(+12.5) JACKSONVILLE (0 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 4:05 PM
How bad are Jags?
After 3 weeks, Jags have yielded the most yards in the league and the most points per game (39.7!)
Jags in last 10 quarters: outscored by 92 points
Early Season generally bad for Jags
Games played Week 8 or before:
Jags 1-17 straight-up (5-13 ATS)
Even worse first month:
Jags lost 8 straight September games ATS (has not covered in September since 2012)
San Diego has not lost against the spread its last 8 games in September
New Jags QB
Jags: QB Borteles to start
Vegas is making NO adjustment for this change
***OTHER
Jax has yielded 17 sacks this season. Next most sacked team has yielded “only” 11.
Wiseguys really like Mike McCoy - Pro bettor David Malinksy called him “a coaching legend in development”
(+4.5) PHILADELPHIA (3 - 0) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Vegas does not overreact to a handful of games:
Philly, even though 3-0, the team’s Vegas Ranking has not been adjusted (tied for 9th)
SF, even though 1-2, the team’s Vegas Ranking has been downgraded only .5 points (tied for 5th)
San Fran tends to bounce back
When San Fran loses a game as a favorite (like they did last week)
they’ve lost the next game against the spread only TWICE in 17 tries!
(last week was one of the two examples of this)
Only two prior times in Harbaugh’s coaching career that SF has lost 2 straight games. Won the next game by 24 and 21 points.
1st Half – Second Half
SF net point edge (compared to Philly) in first half: +72 points
Philly net point edge (compared to SF) in 2nd half: +99 points (SF has scored 3 total points in 2nd half)
***OTHER
32nd time a 3-0 team has played a 1-2 team (since 1988)
This is 6th times the undefeated team has been an underdog
(Philly this week is 2nd biggest underdog in all that time)
Philly: Gave up over 500 yards vs. Washington
SF WITH Harbaugh overall: 35-20-4 ATS (64%)
Off Loss: Coach Harbaugh has lost 12 regular season games. Their opponent the next game has scored more than 13 points only three times.
49ers: Lost only 6 of last 19 games ATS
SF: 11-3-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
Philly has won 10 of last 11 regular season games (SU)
Philly: Beat up O-Line
SF not running the ball as much or as well as expected
(problem with thin defense)
Philly:
1st half (lost every first half): -29
2nd half (won every second half): +50
SF:
1st half (won every first half): +43
2nd half (lost every second half): -49 [scoring only 3 total points]
(-3) ATLANTA (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (1 - 2) - 9/28/2014, 4:25 PM
Falcons backed big
91% of bets so far on Atlanta (most lopsided of week)
Atlanta wins the games they are supposed to
Coach Smith as a favorite: 37-23 ATS in his coaching career
New Vikings QB
No Vegas adjustment from Cassel to Bridgewater
Even beyond Peterson, Minny has multiple injuries that the market is under accounting for.
Saints hangover?
NFL teams the week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 52-86-4 ATS (38% since 2005)
***OTHER
Atlanta 2013: Worst D against the pass last season
Falcons not as good on grass.
Falcons gained most yards in NFL after 3 weeks
and the most points per game
Early line (before last week’s games): Minny -1.5
(-3) NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) at DALLAS (2 - 1) - 9/28/2014, 8:30 PM
Saints Home/Road
The road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton)
has covered ONLY 5 of 40 games
And among those games
the Saints have lost 7 straight against the spread as road favorites.
Last Year’s Game
The public remembers New Orleans crushing Dallas last season – which should motivate the Cowboys.
Dallas as dog
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 70% of the time the last 4+ seasons)
Logical Trend against Saints
Saints started 0-2
Won their 3rd game
and are now favored the next game.
NFL teams in that situation are: 3-18 against the spread.
There’s strong logic to this trend . . .
When 0-2, that 3rd game is a must win
and when favored the next week, there’s a letdown
***OTHER
Under Coach Payton: 25-13 ATS last 38 games
The underdog in Dallas games (47-20 ATS the last 4+ seasons)
Cowboys, after winning a game: 8-18 ATS the next game
Cowboys: As a home underdog since 1990 (27-12 ATS)
Saints ranked as 3rd best team in league by Vegas
(-3.5) NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 2) - 9/29/2014, 8:35 PM
New England’s Offensive Struggles
New England has struggled on offense:
ranked only 26th in yards gained
and
Brady’s yards per pass are down 25% off career numbers.
And that’s against opponents that Vegas Ranks:
#23, #29, #30 in the league
Turnovers
New England has benefited from a +6 turnover margin.
(leading the league)
While KC’s margin is -5
(worst in the league)
Turnovers have a big effect on the scoreboard
and tend to even-out in the long run
Fade Pats at your own risk
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN about $50,000!
***OTHER
The home team in New England games: 16-5 ATS
Alex Smith last 45 games as a starter: 32-12-1 SU
Patriots have covered only 1 of last 7 games as road favorites.
Pats downgraded by 2.5 points by Vegas since start of the season
Early line (before last week’s games): Pats -6.5