The NFL is finally here, each week I will give my 5 strongest bets for the week, along with write ups and a underrated player to watch for. I will keep my record in my sig for my Top 5 and the my picks section as always for me is just for fun. When I say underrated player to watch for it's basically a player who coming into this season or game that maybe hasn't gotten much shine, but IMO very capable. With that being said here are my Week 1 Top Five Best Bets.I'm going to get my first game up now and then throughout the week will filter in the other four games plus write ups all five plays with write ups with be final by Thursday. Games that were in strong consideration and didn't make the cut were, Packers +6, Tampa - 1 and Vikings + 4 1/2.
TOP 5 BEST BETS
SAINTS - 2 1/2
BEARS -7
COLTS + 8
BENGALS + 2
PATRIOTS - 4 1/2
1. SAINTS @ FALCONS Here we have the Saints traveling to the ATL to take on the Falcons in which the Falcons hope to turn around a very disappointing campaign last year. I really don't put too much into what happened in years past between two teams when coaching changes have been made and QB's coming in and out,but with that said we have a petty good sample size between these falcons and saints with both Brees and Matt Ryan being around for a fair amount of time and both coaches holding some job security in their own right. And with that said its hard not to notice how the saints have had the falcons number beating them outright 13 of the last 16 times they have played. let's just take a look at some things we have going here for the Saints, starting at the Top Mike Smith has put together a respectable head coaching stint since becoming coach but IMO Sean Payton is the much better coach, and the way they have handled the falcons over the years backs that up, safe to say Payton has smiths Number where Smith is just 3-9 since taking over as coach of the Falcons against Payton and having to see the Saints twice a year. so check Mark to Saints in the coaching Department, Next let's take a look at the QB matchup while I'm high on Matt Ryan without diving too much into it I think it's safe to say edge Drew Bree's here, but the thing is Drew Bree's has a complete team around him, as good as Matty Ice is he's the WHOLE team outside of Julio jones. Go ahead and try and name the rest of the Falcons starters outside of Falcons fans. Drew Bree's is 13-4 against the Falcons and 8-3 against Matt Ryan straight up. Again I love Matt Ryan but edge Bree's for what he does Pre snap and the leadership he brings. Last but not least let's take a look at the Defense, remember how pathetic the Saints D was before Rob Ryan came over? It was their downfall, well since coming over and getting rid of the 4-3 defense and bringing in his 3-4 he has totally turned things around for the Saints taking a bad defense all the way up to the 4th rated defense, that's a pretty good leap. Safe to say edge Saints defense. IMO without taking a few other things in to account, QB play, Defense, and Coaching are the 3 main departments in looking for a good football team and we have advantage to the Saints in all of those. At Saints - 2 1/2 all we need them to do is win by a FG, with that being said I have the Saints wining this game 10-13 plus points. The Number is right for the Saints.
Underrated Players to watch for, I actually have two for this game. Khiry Robinson and Brandin Cooks. Look for solid contributions from each player in this game.
PICK: SAINTS - 2 1/2
2. BILLS @ BEARS
Here we have the Bills traveling to Chicago to take on the Bears, this play has a lot to do with what Ej Manuel CAN'T do and what IMO the best offense in the league and Jay Cutler CAN do. It will be hard for the Bills just to keep up in this one. Now if this game was played in Buf, I don't know if it would make my best 5, but it's in Chicago and that place will be rocking on opening day. Manuel and his Bills were just 2-6 last year on the road with the only two wins, one against the jaguars and a 2 point win at the Dolphins. They're a Totally diff team away from Buffalo. In 6 of those 7 games they lost on the road they were all by double digits and lost by Seven against Geno smith and the jets. This Bills team just doesn't have what it takes to go on the road and do much here. Over the course of 4 qrts the better team will prevail. Coming into this game this Bills big draft pick Sammy Watkins is suffering from a lingering Rib injury, the Bills will be also with out their young stud LB, Alonso who is out for the season. After losing Steve Johnson, it's asking a lot for a IMO a weak in terms of NFL starters, Manuel and a group of young receivers to put it all together in time for week one. Last season with the Bears missing Cutler for a significant amount of time, they still came up just short making the playoffs losing a tough game to the Packers to end the season. With them having that bad taste in their mouth all summer long I just think they are getting ready to breakout this year and that starts with a week one beat down of the Bills. I will admit the bears are not good at home covering the spread, but with the most loaded Bears team in recent memory and coach I'm very high on in Marc Trestman I think they make this their statement game week 1 and roll.
underrated player to watch: Going to make it Santonio Holmes here, back when he was a stud with the Steelers there was nothing underrated about him, but with him getting older and not having a stable QB to throw him the ball in New York things kind of looked down for him. I look for him to flourish as the number 3 receiver for the Bears this year and make some people say he's back. He certainly showed flashes in the Bears last pre season game.
PICK BEARS -7
3. COLTS @ BRONCOS
Colts travel to mile high to take on the defending AFC champ Broncos, in a rematch in which the Colts and Luck got the best of the Broncos in their first meeting last year. In this game it's all about getting the right number, 8 is obviously big compared in a football game, to 7, it's the difference between one and two possessions. Now do I think the Colts can win this game, ummm, maybe, but do I believe they can cover the 8 points? You better believe it. I'm very high on Luck, and what I like about him most is his ability, to no matter what happened last play, good or bad, He knows how to put things behind him and press on relentlessly. Not to mention he's a one in a generation type talent. He's going to come at you a full sixty min, not saying the great Peyton Manning doesn't play the same way, but 8 points here is just too many, with the way the Colts seem to usually be in close games late. One huge weapon Luck will have back this year, is Reggie Wayne. In Lucks first year it was almost like poetry in motion with those two, and last year before going down he lead the team in catches, yards, and targets. On the other hand, as of now Wes Welker has not yet been cleared to play. Not going to over look the fact that the Colts will be without Robert Marthis in this game, and if the Super Bowl showed you a way to beat Peyton, it's to get after and stay after him, with that being said, I know the Broncos will put up points in this one, as Manning has his weapons too, but I see the Colts being able to keep up and obviously cover the 8. A lot of people think the Broncos will win fairly easy in this one, so I know I'm kinda in the minority, but I'm rolling with the young gun here to keep things close with his plethora of weapons at his disposal. With, Wayne, Hilton, Hakeem Nicks, Fleener, and Moncrief.
Underrated player to watch: Colts, Donte Moncrief, selected in the third round, some feel he could be the steal of the draft. Everything out of training camp, was how polished he looked for a rookie. He could play a significant role in the Colts offense this year, and contribute in this game for the Colts.
PICK: COLTS + 8
4. BENGALS @ RAVENS
Bengals travel to Baltimore in a AFC North showdown. Coming into this game, for me and a lot of others, the big question is how will this top Bengals defense play after losing Zimmer. Other than that, this Bengals team will be better than they were last year, adding another year of experience together under their belt. But let's jump back to that Zimmer thing. Trying to replace Zimmer is almost impossible to do, he's my all time favorite coach and without a doubt will turn that Vikings team around this year, but it's not like the Bengals brought in a whole new regime at DC with a whole new defense, they kept Zimmers clone Paul Guenther, who acknowledges he's learned most of everything he knows from Mike Zimmer, not a bad guy to learn from. So the defense won't have to adjust to any major schemes. Guenther said he will add his own flare to it obviously, but the players will be familiar. It also won't hurt that he gets back the the Bengals best corner in Leon Hall this year and arguably the best DT in Geno Atkins. That defense will also add in which Marvin Lewis said the best rookie CB he's ever seen in Darqueze Dennard. The Bengals lost Michael Johnson in the off season, but they will replace him with a flat out beast in Margus Hunt, who I think, with time can be better than MJ. The talent on this Bengals team is honestly pretty unreal, esp now that the Bengals got rid of mediocre BjGE, and add a legit 1-2 running punch with Bernard and impressive rookie Jeremy Hill. That's been really the only slight downfall for the Bengals over the past few seasons, is not having a legit running game, well IMO now they do, Gio is a younger and better version of a young Ray Rice in my eyes, and I expect a break out season for him this year, with being able to run and catch the ball out of the back field. Speaking of Ray Rice, the coward who likes to hit women, will be susp for this game. I know Flacco won a SB, but IMO he's overrated, and in this game it's just hard for me to think he, and an old Steve Smith, and Torrey Smith can beat the overall better team in the Bengals. Defensively, the Ravens just don't intimidate teams like they used to, and they def won't intimidate this well oiled Bengals offensive machine, who in the pre season looked spectacular going against other teams ones. I didn't even get to talk about Aj Green and the two of everything Dalton has at his disposal. Playing at M&T stadium is not easy, but the players on the field determine the outcomes of the games, and just too much talent here with the Bengals. Bengals win this game outright, but hey what the heck I'll take 2 points for good measure.
Underrated player to watch: the Bengals DE Margus Hunt, this absolute freak of nature doesn't even know what he is capable of yet, and all off season the Bengals can't stop drooling over the potential he brings, well he'll get his first real shot this sun, in his second season. He will get real, big time minutes this year and I'm guaranteeing he Sacks Flacco altleast once this Sunday.
PICK: BENGALS + 2
5. PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS
The Patriots travel to Miami to take on the Dolphins, the Patriots have owned the AFC east big time over the years, Over the past decade Brady has won his division every year, except the year he went down in 2008, that's honestly pretty amazing and I don't look for much to change come Sunday. The Gronk has been cleared to play in this game, and getting him back should make Brady happy, still need a final go from the coach, but he will be in there. I do see this game here, being a good game, I hope they do, but don't expect the Pats to run away with this one. Bill B, and Brady prepare each week like every game is the Super Bowl, but here Belichik and Brady have had all summer to prepare for this game, that's not a good thing for the Dolphins, esp after that week 14 loss they had in MIA last year that they will have on their mind. In my first game with the falcons and saints, I found advantage to saints in all major categories, and this game is no different, you're giving me a QB who is miles better in this one, a coach who is miles better, with a whole summer to prepare for this game, and the better defense. This game for me is about Brady, setting the tone for the season. I have full confidence in Brady in this game to get the job done and cover the 4.5.
Underrated player to watch: Pats TE Tim Wright, you might say who? But he's the guy the pats just traded for. It's safe to say belichik targeted this guy, and likes what he can do. All recent reports have been how Quick he is learning things in pats camp. Look for Belichik to throw him into the fire week 1, and Brady to likely make him a house hold name very soon.
PICK : PATRIOTS - 4 1/2