Turned a profit in 18 of the last 20 NFL seasons. Taught a football handicapping class at UNLV. Won 67 percent of my NFL plays (65-32-4) in 2012. Multiple Rotisserie league football champion. Was an award-winning sportswriter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years. Worked for the top oddsmaker in North America.
I'm proud of my resume, but it doesn't assure me of anything in 2014. Because when it comes to football every year is different. What worked last year won't necessarily mean profits this coming season.
Many factors go into making money when it comes to betting football. The ability to adapt, work hard never resting on any laurels, discipline and proper money management all rank high on the list.
Before getting into handicapping, let's talk money management. My style is 1, 2 and 3 unit wagers. Bet more when winning; less when losing. Do not chase. Protect your bankroll at all times. I'm a conservative investor. If you want to shot gun the board then I'm not the guy for you. I usually play one-to-three NFL Sunday games and one-to-five Saturday college games. I don't always play a Thursday and Monday game.
If you want just action, I'm not your guy. Winning and protecting the bankroll is what this is about. Win, survive. Survive, win.
Some pros specialize in trends and angles. Others rely heavily on statistics and computers. Some are fundamental 'cappers studying the matchups. I fit more into that category. I pride myself on my knowledge of the rosters. It's helped me win multiple Rotisserie football leagues and have a book published on fantasy football. The leagues I'm in have a Rotisserie format with 12 owners and 28-man rosters and include individual defensive statistics. Quarterbacks are like starting pitchers. You better know them well - plus their backups.
This does involve spending time on statistics, history and various trends and angles. They are part of the handicap, too. So is getting information and - even more important - being able to accurately interpret and project that information. I've built a wall of strong information sources and contacts through more than 20 years of having worked as a sportswriter for newspapers in the West, Midwest and South and having worked under legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxborough. These contacts range from the wisest of the wise guys to beat writers for various pro and college teams.
Line value must be respected. There are certain stop signs with key numbers. But I set no hard rules. You can't be afraid to go against the grain. Some won't ever lay double-digits on the road in the NFL. I will if I deem it the right play. Some won't back the ugliest of underdogs. I will if I believe it's the right move.
The catch to beating football, especially the NFL, with it's air tight lines, juice and endless talking heads is you must have some kind of innate intuition or intangible feel. It's not just knowing players, statistics and spreads. This is something that takes a long time - learning from experience and by trial and error - to develop. Most never develop it.
Don't be seduced by fancy titles. Sound analysis, time proven results and trustworthiness are what is important.
Thanks for reading. Best of luck.