NFL Week 11 - 413 Green Bay Packers @ 414 Detroit Lions
Projected Line: Green Bay by 6 points
Green Bay is 12-1 on their last 13 games against Detroit and honestly, I believe this will be 13-1 L14 after today's game. The Packers had a bye week to prepare this game and even though they aren't healthy on defense, their offense can compensate that with Aaron Rodgers being back at his top form. He will have Jordy Nelson back on the field and they shouldn't have problems in pounding the Lions pass defense that has been allowing a lot of completions (#28) and they have just intercepted the opposing quarterback five times this season. Detroit is also dealing with a lot of injury problems on their secondary with both starting safeties being out of this contest and the Packers have the right personnel to expose the secondary problems of the Lions today.
On the other hand, Matthew Stafford has been having an inconsistent season and Green Bay's pass defense is indeed massively improved from the disaster they were last season. Their great pass rush helps (even though Clay Matthews is out of today's game) and their coverage has been really good, as they are #5 in completions% allowed, #9 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #6 in QB rating allowed and #7 in third down conversion allowed! I believe Stafford will be able to throw a couple of good passes, but I don't expect him to have a great game today against a quite good pass defense. As the Lions' running game is average at best and the Packers are also in the top 10 in rushing yards allowed per carry, I believe Detroit won't have the offensive efficiency that Green Bay will surely have today and therefore, I'll be taking the Packers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 413 Green Bay Packers (-3) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Green Bay 24 Detroit 20
NFL Week 11 - 415 Arizona Cardinals @ 416 Atlanta Falcons
Projected Line: Atlanta by 13 points
I expect Atlanta to bounce back today after losing their first game of the season in New Orleans. The Falcons are being excellent on their passing game and even a good pass defense like Arizona will struggle against them today. Matt Ryan has just too many quality options on the receivers for the Cardinals to be able to avoid the Falcons to have a couple of big plays per half on this game. Atlanta is averaging more than 27 points per game and it will very hard for Arizona to avoid the Falcons to score a considerable number of points today, especially with their offense struggling big time and the Falcons prone to start their drives with a good field position because of that.
Arizona's offense has been a disaster this season, as not only their offensive line is one of the worst offensive lines in the history of football, as John Skelton is struggling with confidence and their running game is last in the league in rushing yards per carry with just 3.4! Atlanta doesn't have a great defense, but they have a decent enough pass rush to put pressure on Skelton today, while they are also quite good in getting takeaways, so I believe Arizona will have another game where they will massively struggle on offense.
With Atlanta on bounce back mode having another positive offensive game and with the Cardinals struggling once again big time on offense, I expect the Falcons to have an easy win in here and so, I'll be taking them today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 416 Atlanta Falcons (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Arizona 19 Atlanta 23
NFL Week 11 - 417 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 418 Carolina Panthers
Projected Line: Carolina by 3 points
I took the Buccaneers over the last two weeks with success, however I don't think they are good enough to be favored on a divisional road game against a team that will be very motivated to beat them, after losing at Tampa Bay back in week 1. The Buccaneers have one of the best offenses in football, however Carolina has a quite decent all-around defense that should be able to limit Tampa Bay's offense today. In fact, the same happened last week against San Diego, as Tampa Bay's offense scored only 20 points and then benefited from an interception TD and a blocked punt TD to score a total of 34 points.
While the Buccaneers will have a decent but not huge offensive game, they will struggle on defense, especially against the pass, as their secondary is indeed quite poor (#25 in completion percentage allowed and #30 in yards allowed per pass attempt). Cam Newton isn't having a good season, but he is being able to throw some big plays, as he is #4 in the league in yards per pass attempt! Tampa Bay offers him a good matchup on the passing department and even though the Buccaneers have a great run defense to limit the Panthers' running game, I believe Carolina should be able to pound the Buccaneers on the passing game today.
Carolina is a much better team than the 2-7 record shows (they have had one of the toughest schedules in the league so far) and they will be fully motivated for this divisional game. Tampa Bay is in my opinion on a letdown spot today and they will struggle defensively today, while Carolina's underrated defense will make a good job against Tampa Bay's potent offense. I believe the Buccaneers shouldn't be a road favorite in here and so, I'm taking Carolina today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 418 Carolina Panthers (+1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Tampa Bay 27 Carolina 21
NFL Week 11 - 425 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 426 Houston Texans
Projected Line: 36 points
There isn't much to say in here, as we are talking about a game between one of the best teams in the league and of the worst teams in the league. Houston's offense is very running-oriented and I expect to see Arian Foster to have a huge workload today, even though the Texans hasn't been very effective on the running game this season (#20 with 3.9 Y/C). Jacksonville has an average defense against both the running and the passing game, therefore I believe they won't allow the Texans to score a massive number of points today.
The problem for Jacksonville is that I don't know how they will score at all. Blaine Gabbert is banged up with a shoulder injury and if he is bad healthy, let alone injured. Houston's pass defense is excellent and they won't allow any big play to the Jaguars today. With Maurice Jones-Drew out with a foot injury, the Jaguars' running game has been quite poor as well and Houston's run defense should be also able to shutdown the running game of Jacksonville today.
With Jacksonville's decent defense keeping the score respectable and with Houston's defense completely shutting down the Jaguars offense, I believe we are into a similar game to the one Houston played against Buffalo two weeks ago and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 425/426 Under 41 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Jacksonville 37 Houston 43
NFL Week 11 - 429 New Orleans Saints @ 430 Oakland Raiders
Projected Line: New Orleans by 8 points
New Orleans is coming from a huge win at home against Atlanta, where their offense looked back to last year's level. Not only Drew Brees is getting back into his top form, as the running game has reappeared and with that, they have absolutely pounded both Philadelphia and Atlanta over the last two weeks, while scoring 28 and 31 points in those games. Oakland has a poor secondary and their run defense is also prone to some struggles (as Doug Martin showed two weeks ago), so I expect New Orleans to keep their offensive momentum today and completely pound the Raiders defense today.
The problem for Oakland is that they won't be able to keep themselves close in the score against a potent Saints offense. New Orleans' defense may be poor, but it has actually played better on clutch moments recently, while their pass rush is also looking decent! Carson Palmer is known for being a bit turnover prone, especially when his team is behind on the score, and I believe that even though he will throw some good plays against the poor secondary of the Saints, he will also commit some errors that won't allow his team to stay competitive against the unstoppable Saints defense.
Therefore, I expect an easy win for New Orleans in here and so, I'll be taking them today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 429 New Orleans Saints (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: New Orleans 38 Oakland 17
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 11 - 419 Cleveland Browns @ 420 Dallas Cowboys
NFL Week 11 - 431 San Diego Chargers @ 432 Denver Broncos
Dallas is coming from a great road win in Philadelphia and they are now 4-5 with three home games ahead against poor teams! I believe the Cowboys should be able to score a decent number of points today against a Browns defense that is average, but very far from being able to shutdown the Cowboys offense today. Tony Romo has been looking better recently and I believe he will remain turnover-free today, while helping his team scoring a decent number of points. On the other hand, Cleveland's offense has been looking quite poor, as Brandon Weeden is getting worse and worse, while Trent Richardson is having a very inconsistent season and he keeps being banged up with a ribs injury. Therefore, I expect a comfortable home win for Dallas today.
Denver is carrying a huge momentum right now, with Peyton Manning being on his top form, while the defense is also playing some great football right now. They won't have problems in outplaying the Chargers' pass defense that is average and that won't handle Denver's excellent passing game. On the other hand, Denver has the best pass rush in the league, while they are also in the top 10 in both the pass and the run defense. San Diego's offense has been inconsistent, with Philip Rivers committing errors in every game and with Ryan Matthews being banged up with a neck injury. Therefore, I can only expect another easy win for Denver today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 420 Dallas Cowboys (-1) x 432 Denver Broncos (-1,5) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
Final Score: CLE 20 DAL 23 / SD 23 DEN 30
NFL Week 11 - 433 Baltimore Ravens @ 434 Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Line: 37 points
Ben Roethlisberger's injury was a huge blow for Pittsburgh, however they are a very tough team and they will have a massive effort tonight to be competitive against their main divisional rivals. Considering Bryan Leftwich has been proving during his whole career that he isn't a good quarterback, I believe most of Pittsburgh's effort to remain competitive on this game will come from their great defense. The Steelers have once again one of the best pass defenses in the league, while being #1 in completion percentage allowed, #1 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #5 in QB rating allowed. Joe Flacco isn't having an impressive season and I believe Pittsburgh's excellent coverage will put him in trouble today. Ray Rice is having an average season and looking at the fact that Pittsburgh is #10 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry, I believe they will also do a good job in defending Baltimore's running game today.
On the other hand, Bryan Leftwich won't do much today and the Steelers will mostly use their running game to advance in the field. Even though a lot has been said about the Ravens' run defense, the truth is that they are #9 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry, so I believe they will at least do a reasonable job in stopping Rashard Mendenhall, Jonathan Dwyer and Isaac Redman today, three decent but not amazing running backs.
I expect this contest to be a very physical one, with a lot of carries from both teams and with little offensive efficiency. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 433/434 Under 40,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Baltimore 13 Pittsburgh 10
NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 New York Knicks
Projected Line: NY Knicks by 2 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Indiana has been one of the disappointments of the season. They are playing without Danny Granger and their struggles have been just on offense, but they keep being one of the best defenses in the league. I know the Knicks are playing really well on this early season, but Indiana is a tough matchup for them and in their last game against Dallas at home, they were able to get something they were really needing: an easy win to give them confidence back. Indiana's defense was stellar against Dallas by leaving the Mavericks to just 18+16 points in the second half! But this time, the Pacers showed a big improvement on offense and the merit goes to their coach Jim Vogel, as he changed paths with his offensive game plan to generate more cutting and passing in the half court and apparently he knew it was going to work.
"With that last offense, we were thinking too much, the ball wasn't moving and staying on one side of the floor," Hill continued. "This offense demands the ball move from side to side and different ways we can post up people and different ways we can cut and be creative so you have to tip your hat to the coaching staff.
As the Knicks use a small lineup, they will have the same problems that they had in their last game in Memphis. They got pounded down low by the Grizzlies' frontcourt and the same may happen today against Indiana. Note that the Knicks are just #23 on defensive rebound rate with 71.9% and Indiana is a good offensive rebound team. Also with Tyson Chandler being the only good interior defensive player, the Knicks are allowed 65% FG at the rim! They are in the middle of the pack (#16) in defending post up plays and suddenly, Indiana's offense will have a clear edge over the Knicks today, especially down low.
The Knicks' offense has been red hot, with good shooting especially coming from screens and pick and roll plays from their guards plus Carmelo Anthony on his isolation plays. However, the Knicks are getting worse and worse on their ball movement, while raising the number of isolation plays. Note that the Knicks had just 17, 15, 17 and 18 assists on their last four games! The problem for them is that Indiana is an excellent defensive team, especially on the perimeter, where the Knicks are a top offensive team. The Pacers are #7 in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, #2 on spot up plays, #1 in off screens and #5 in transition defense!
The Knicks had a road trip with back to back tough games in San Antonio and Memphis and now with just one day off to rest, they will face the Pacers at home in an early game. Indiana is clearly being underrated on this game and with the adjustments made on their offense in their last game, I like them in here to cause a surprise today. I'm taking Indiana in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 701 Indiana Pacers (+7,5) @ -115 / 1.95 on Bovada
Final Score: Indiana 76 NY Knicks 88
NBA - 703 Orlando Magic @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: Toronto by 1 point
Toronto is coming from a loss yesterday afternoon in Boston, where they got crushed by Boston's offense, who moved the ball excellently and made almost every long range shot: 5-10 FG from 10-15 feet, 14-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts. The Raptors' starting lineup was terrible and it was Linas Kleiza, Terrence Ross and John Lucas III, who combined 35 points scored to keep the score a bit respectable.
On the other hand, Orlando is coming from a road win in Detroit last Friday. Jameer Nelson came back to the lineup and he was the key of that game with 13 points and 10 assists. The Magic got pounded by Detroit down low, as they allowed 26-39 FG at the rim and 5-8 FG from 3-9 feet. Even though the Pistons looked good on offensive, Orlando had the key of the game by grabbing 60% of the rebounds! Their cuts keep being very efficient with 12-17 and with Jameer Nelson back, their pick and roll plays immediately got better.
Toronto keep playing without Kyle Lowry and they are struggling to defend on the backcourt, especially cuts, as Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas aren't good help defenders! Toronto is just #22 in defending cuts, #28 in defending transition plays and #28 in defending spot ups, so they are a good matchup for Orlando's offense. The Magic keep struggling on their inside defense, but Toronto is the #6 team in the league with less volume at the rim, so if the Raptors want to win this game, they will need to outplay Orlando in terms of outside shooting and right now the Magic with their dynamic offense is better than them with Jameer Nelson back. Therefore, I'll be taking Orlando in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Orlando 86 Toronto 97
NBA - 705 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 706 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected Line: 187 points
Cleveland is coming a home loss yesterday against Dallas, in a close game where the Mavericks were able to outplay the Cavaliers down the stretch. Dallas shot 51.4% FG, while Cleveland shot just 37.5% FG, with Anderson Varejao struggling with just 2-11 FG! The Cavaliers defense wasn't horrible, as they forced 20 turnovers, but the truth is that they Mavericks shot very well with 4-9 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-12 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-23 3pts! They looked good on spot ups with 11-22 FG and transitions with 8-10 FG, on a good enough performance to beat Cleveland, even though the Cavs dominated on the rebounds. On the other hand, the Cavaliers offense keeps having a lot of problems, as besides the pick and rolls between Kyrie Irving and Anderson Varejao, the Cavaliers can't run a decent offensive play! They also had bad transition numbers and bad pick and roll ball handler numbers.
Cleveland's offense is mostly based on pick and roll ball handler plays, spot ups, cuts and transition plays! They faced the Mavericks last night, who is a top team in defending pick and roll ball handler plays and that made the Cavaliers struggle on offense. Today, things won't be easier for them, as they will face Philadelphia, who has in Jrue Holiday an elite defender! Philadelphia is a top team in defending cuts and transitions, so they will cause problems on the Cavaliers. Cleveland also needs to create turnovers to have easy transition points, but Philadelphia is back at committing a low number of turnovers, after some problems in the early season: just 12.2 turnovers per game over the last five games!
On the other hand, Cleveland can take a deep breath, as Philadelphia still has Andrew Bynum sidelined and so, they are lacking a reference down low. Yesterday against Dallas, Chris Kaman had 15 points, 8 rebounds and 6 blocks and it's a fact that Cleveland is horrible at defending the paint. Fortunately for Cleveland, Philadelphia is one of the teams who has less attempts per game at the rim with just 22.7 FGA and so, this is a relief for Cleveland, who is allowing 79% FG at the rim! The Cavaliers have been a decent team in defending pick and rolls and Anderson Varejao will be decisive in here to make Jrue Holiday struggle, a player who is the offensive key of the Sixers right now.
With Philadelphia not exploring Cleveland's biggest weakness, the Cavaliers have a decent chance of having a good defensive game today, while the Sixers have all the tools to stop Cleveland's offense as well. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 190,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Cleveland 79 Philadelphia 86
NBA - 709 Golden State Warriors @ 710 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 194 points
Golden State is coming from a good road win against Minnesota, where Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson were better than in the previous games with 7-12 FG and 5-14 FG respectively. But the Warriors won this game due to their frontcourt edge, as they had a 17-11 offensive rebound edge, while grabbing almost 59% of the rebounds! David Lee shot 8-15 FG, Harrison Barnes 8-15 FG, Festus Ezeli 2-2 FG and Carl Landry 6-8 FG! The Warriors scored 58 points in the paint, while shooting 22-31 FG at the rim and 6-10 FG from 3-9 feet! Minnesota fought a lot with Andrei Kirilenko and Alexey Shved having good games, but without a good frontcourt player, the Wolves not only struggled to score easy points (22 points in the paint and 10-19 FG at the rim), as their interior defense was also gone.
The problem for Golden State is that they won't be able to do anything similar today against Oklahoma City. The Thunder is #6 in the league in defensive rebounding rate with 74,5%, while they are also #7 in points in the paint allowed with 38.6 ppg and #1 in post up defense, so Golden State's frontcourt won't have an easy task tonight. This will put both Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry in a lot of pressure and they are still both far from being on a great moment right now.
On the other side, we have a super underrated Golden State defense! I've mentioned Oklahoma City's nice defensive numbers on defensive rebounding and points in the paint allowed, but the truth is that Golden State's defense is even better than Oklahoma City in those two areas! Coach Mark Jackson doesn't want the team to play with a small lineup and so, the Warriors have now a nice interior defense.
Oklahoma City has been red hot on the offense with back to back good outside shooting games against Memphis and New Orleans. However, note that Golden State is #3 in the league in defending spot up plays, while allowing just 0.84 PPP! I believe there isn't a perception that Golden State is now a top 10 defensive team in the league, but all my numbers confirm that. Therefore, I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll take the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 198,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Golden State 109 Oklahoma City 119
NBA - 713 Chicago Bears @ 714 Portland Trailblazers
Projected Line: 196 points
Chicago struggled on offense last night in LA against the Clippers. They scored just 80 points, they shot 33.7% FG and they committed 16 turnovers. Kirk Hinrich shot 0-5 FG, Joakim Noah 0-6 FG and even Luol Deng shot 5-16 FG! The key in here was that Chicago just couldn't score at the rim with a ridiculous 13-31 FG at the rim! The Clippers are a physical team and Chicago just couldn't respond well, just like I expected, as I took the Under on a Double Dime Play on that game.
Today the Bulls will play at Portland, on a much easier opponent for them. J.J. Hickson is the Blazers' starting center and this shows how Portland's interior defense is really poor. Portland is allowing 66% FG at the rim and 53% FG from 3-9 feet, so the Bulls have a good bounce back spot to have a big offensive game in here.
On the other side, Chicago's defense is far from being an elite team in protecting the basket. It might seem weird, but the truth is that they are allowing 68% FG at the rim this season! The Clippers pounded them big time down low yesterday with 15-20 FG at the rim and 11-17 FG from 3-9 feet. Kirk Hinrich didn't look at 100% physically yesterday and PG Damian Lillard is torching NBA defenses with pick and roll ball handler plays by turning Portland into the #2 best team in the league in pick and roll ball handler plays, with a nice 0.94 PPP!
Chicago with their nice ball movement will find easy looks on the inside, while Portland will take advantage of Chicago's back-to-back spot to run and score in transition, besides the fact that they will have a substantial edge with Damian Lillard and his pick and rolls and with LeMarcus Aldridge being defended by Carlos Boozer. I expect a high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Chicago 94 Portland 102
NBA - 715 Houston Rockets @ 716 Los Angeles Lakers
Projected Line: LA Lakers by 10 points
We are in front of two teams with terrible benches, so this immediately helps the Lakers, as they won't have to fight the depth mismatch they generally have in most of their games. Houston will be playing their final game of a road trip and they are coming from a game in Portland that went to overtime and where three of their players were on court for over 43 minutes! Therefore, the Lakers will have a physical edge tonight.
The LA team is simply dominating the league in terms of rebounds and free throws. They are being super aggressive, while scoring a lot of second chance points, something that can become problematic for Houston, as Omer Asik is their only legit big man. With Asik on foul trouble or tired because he played 44 minutes in the team's last game, Houston is going to get pounded down low! Pau Gasol will have a tremendous edge over Patrick Patterson and so, the Lakers will have all the necessary conditions to dominate Houston.
The key matchup will be between Kobe Bryant and James Harden. There is bad blood between the two players and Kobe will surely be fired up, as he was outplayed by Harden in last year's playoffs series between the Lakers and Oklahoma City. Kobe is having a stellar season with 53% FG shooting and with Jeremy Lin not being aggressive and with Harden having to work a lot of defense, Houston won't have offensive options tonight to counter this new up tempo look of the Lakers. I expect a very easy win for the LA team on this contest and so, I'll be taking the Lakers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 Los Angeles Lakers (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Houston 108 LA Lakers 119