NFL Week 9 - 419 Miami Dolphins @ 420 Indianapolis Colts
Projected Line: Miami by 4 points
This has suddenly turned into a very important game, with both teams posting a 4-3 record and having at least the chance of grabbing a wildcard spot at the end of the regular season. Ryan Tannehill suffered a quad injury last week against the Jets and he was replaced by Matt Moore, who did a fine job in that game. It's expected that Tannehill plays today, but even if he doesn't, I believe both Tannehill and Moore have a similar level and I don't see Miami losing quality for today if Tannehill ends up not playing. Considering the fact that Indianapolis doesn't have a good pass defense (#25 in completions% allowed, #22 em yards allowed per pass attempt and #29 in QB rating allowed), I expect either Ryan Tannehill or Matt Moore to be able to throw a couple of big passes today. The Colts' pass rush shouldn't be able to cause a lot of problems on the Dolphins' good offensive line and so, I believe Miami will be able to take some advantage of the problems that Indianapolis have on their secondary. The Dolphins lack a very effective running game, however considering how poor the Colts run defense is (#29 with 4.8 rushing yards allowed per carry), it's also not impossible that either Daniel Thomas or Reggie Bush have a rare good day on this contest as well.
On the other side of the field, Andrew Luck will face one of the best pass defenses in the league and I don't expect him to have a good luck. Even though he has been playing well down the stretch, the truth is that Luck is just #29 in completions%, #23 in yards per pass attempt and #29 in QB rating, while having a 8/8 TD/INT ratio. These aren't good numbers at all, even for a rookie! Miami has a good pass rush as well and they will put pressure on Luck, something that should cause him to struggle as well. The Dolphins also have the second best run defense in football with 3.5 rushing yards allowed per carry and I don't expect the Colts running game to have a good day today. Miami has one of the best all-around defenses in the league and I expect them to cause a lot of problems to the Indianapolis offense today.
Even though neither offense is an elite unit, there is a huge difference on defense between these two teams. While Miami has an elite defense that will prevent the Colts offense from having a decent day today, Indianapolis' defense is quite poor and they should allow some yardage to the Dolphins. Miami is clearly a more consistent team than Indianapolis and I expect them to show today that they are indeed the much better team as well. Therefore, I'll be taking the Dolphins in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 419 Miami Dolphins (-1) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Final Score: Miami 20 Indianapolis 23
NFL Week 9 - 433 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 434 Oakland Raiders
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 2 points
Both teams have reasons to come to this game with some confidence. Tampa Bay is coming from an excellent win in Minnesota on Thursday Night Football, while Oakland has won their last two games. However, it seems clear to me that the Buccaneers are clearly the better team out of the two right now and they should be able to get a rare back-to-back win on the road.
Josh Freeman is having an excellent season, with a 14/5 TD/INT ratio, while being #32 in completions%, #2 in yards per pass attempt and #8 in QB rating. He may be inconsistent on his throwing, but he just keeps throwing big plays, especially in the direction of Vincent Jackson. They have another good matchup today against the mediocre pass defense of the Raiders and Josh Freeman should be able to pound them, even though they lost OG Carl Nicks for the season with a toe injury. Tampa Bay has a good offensive line (even without Nicks) and Oakland's pass rush has been quite poor, so I don't expect Josh Freeman to get pressured today at all. Doug Martin is also coming from an excellent game in Minnesota and he should be able to have some yardage today as well on the running game, even though Oakland's run defense has been quite reasonable with 3.9 rushing yards allowed per carry.
Carson Palmer is having a very solid season, with just five interceptions, however his numbers are quite average and not impressive at all. Speaking of impressive, Tampa Bay has been quite good in intercepting opposing quarterbacks this season, so Palmer better not start throwing his usual high-risk passes or he's going to get intercepted today. It's true that Tampa Bay's pass defense hasn't been good this season, however they are compensating that with takeaways and with one of the best run defenses in football as well by allowing just 3.5 rushing yards per carry to their opponents. I believe Carson Palmer will be able to throw some good passes today, however there is a clear risk that he will commit turnovers as well, besides the fact that he will get zero support from the running game, who has been very poor this season and who will be facing one of the best run defenses in the league.
Both teams have some quality on their passing game and they will be facing a mediocre pass defense, so there's a strong chance that both Josh Freeman and Carson Palmer will have good games today. However, not only Carson Palmer doesn't have a wide receiver with the quality of Vincent Jackson, as he will be facing a dangerous team in takeaways and he will get zero support from his team's running game, while Josh Freeman will have the support of an in-form Doug Martin. The spot also favors Tampa Bay, who had an extra three days to prepare this game and they clearly seem to be as not only the better team in here, as also the most solid and with more solutions on their game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Buccaneers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 433 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Tampa Bay 42 Oakland 32
NFL Week 9 - 435 Pittsburgh Steelers @ 436 New York Giants
Projected Line: NY Giants by 6 points
This was a very tough week for both teams. The Giants saw their city getting hit with Hurricane Sandy and all the consequences that it caused, while Pittsburgh couldn't find a place to stay in New Jersey and so, they are traveling from Pittsburgh only today!
"The Steelers will stay overnight at a Pittsburgh hotel, then depart at about 9:15 a.m. for a one-hour flight. According to NFL guidelines, teams are required to travel the day before a game. But the league made an exception for the Steelers, considering the circumstances. The Steelers will fly into Newark Airport only hours before the scheduled 4:25 p.m. kickoff because of travel issues caused by Hurricane Sandy. The team’s hotel in Jersey City, N.J. is still without power since the storm ravaged the East Coast. The team will have a pregame meal at an airport area hotel, then bus to the stadium."
So, not only the spot will be a little more favorable to the Giants, as they have a good matchup today. Eli Manning has been having a solid season and even though his numbers aren't that great, the truth is that he has been amazing down the stretch. He will be well protected by a very good offensive line that won't have problems in outplaying the poor pass rush of the Steelers, so I expect Eli Manning to be able to throw some good passes today against a Pittsburgh defense that just can't intercept anyone this season (just 3 interceptions in seven games!). The Giants' running game has also been quite effective this season with both Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown and they should have a good day today against a Steelers run defense that has regressed a lot in comparison to the previous seasons, as they are just #16 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry! Therefore, I expect the Giants to have a decent offensive game today.
I don't expect the same thing for the Steelers offense. Ben Roethlisberger is having a very good season and the offensive line is surprisingly hanging in there quite well, however the Giants' pass rush has woken up and they will put a lot of pressure on Roethlisberger today. The Giants lead the league in interceptions with 16 (tied with Chicago) and I'm quite sure they will be able to force a couple of turnovers on a highly pressured Roethlisberger today. The Steelers running game had significantly improved with Jonathan Dwyer over the last few weeks, but he is out for today, just like Rashard Mendenhall. This should cause Pittsburgh's running game to go back to the horrible level that they were showing a month ago and so, they won't be able to take advantage of the Giants poor run defense today. Therefore, I expect a very problematic game for the Steelers offense, as Ben Roethlisberger will get pressured a lot, while getting zero support from his team's running game.
Both Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are having good seasons, but while Eli Manning will be very well protected today and he will get some support from the running game, Ben Roethlisberger will get pressured a lot and he will get zero support from his running game. Therefore, I expect a good win for the Giants win in an emotional week for the NY area. I'm taking the Giants in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 436 New York Giants (-3) @ -125 / 1.80 on Betonline
Final Score: Pittsburgh 24 NY Giants 20
2-Team 6pts Teaser:
NFL Week 9 - 423 Buffalo Bills @ 424 Houston Texans
NFL Week 9 - 429 Chicago Bears @ 430 Tennessee Titans
Both teams are coming from a bye week and that's the only similarity these two teams share. Houston is having an excellent season, with a very solid well-balanced offense, while their defense has been playing lights out. They should have no problems in putting a lot of points against the Bills poor defense, while they should also put the inconsistent and turnover-prone Ryan Fitzpatrick in a lot of trouble today. Buffalo has a good running game, but Houston has a quite decent run defense as well and I don't expect the Bills to be able to do a lot of damage on offense today. Therefore, I expect a very comfortable win for Houston in here.
Chicago needed a meltdown from Carolina to be able to beat the Panthers at home last week. They didn't look good and it seems clear that Jay Cutler is starting to struggle. However, Tennessee has one of the worst pass defenses in the league and therefore, Jay Cutler should be able to find Brandon Marshall in good position for some big plays. The Bears running game is quite good with Matt Forte and Michael Bush and they should have no problems in outplaying a weak Titans run defense. Therefore, I expect Chicago to have a decent offensive game today. On the other hand, Matt Hasselbeck is a very experienced quarterback, but he has been average this season and Chicago has been great in takeaways, coverage and pass rush, so Hasselbeck should also struggle today. The Bears also have a good run defense and even though Chris Johnson has been quite decent over the past few weeks, he tends to struggle big time against good run defenses, as he keeps trying some big plays that the good defenses simply don't allow. I expect the Bears to bounce back a bit from last week and outplay the Titans in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 424 Houston Texans (-4,5) x 429 Chicago Bears (+2) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
Final Score: BUF 9 HOU 21 / CHI 51 TEN 20
NFL Week 9 - 437 Dallas Cowboys @ 438 Atlanta Falcons
Projected Line: 51 points
I expect this game to be an exciting high-scoring game, similar to the one Dallas played in Baltimore two weeks ago. Tony Romo may be a turnover-prone quarterback, but he is also able to throw some huge passes, as he showed last week against the Giants, where he almost won the game at the end with a big pass to Dez Bryant. The Falcons don't have a good pass defense and I believe Romo will be able to throw some good passes today, even though it is indeed likely that he throws a couple of interceptions as well. The Cowboys running game has been a bit poor this season, however Atlanta's run defense has been a complete mess (#30 with 5.0 rushing yards allowed per game), so don't be surprised if Felix Jones suddenly has a big game tonight, similar to the one he had in Baltimore. Therefore, I expect Dallas to have a good offensive night, with both the passing game and the running game giving the team a decent production.
The problem for Dallas is that Atlanta's passing game is close to unstoppable, especially at home. Matt Ryan is having a huge season, he can throw the football to anywhere in the field and every receiver is playing very well. Dallas has an average pass defense, they have just 3 interceptions in seven games and their pass rush is too weak to put pressure on Matt Ryan, therefore expect the Falcons to pound Dallas big time on their passing game tonight. Atlanta's running game hasn't been able to support the team's passing game with success this season, but this hasn't been a problem due to Atlanta's super efficient passing game.
I expect the Falcons to have another great offensive game, while Dallas also has enough quality in both their passing and running game to keep the score close by taking advantage of a Falcons defense that has some flaws in both their passing and running game. I expect this game to quickly turn into a high scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 437/438 Over 47.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Dallas 13 Atlanta 19
NBA - 701 Philadelphia 76ers @ 702 New York Knicks
Projected line: 181 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Knicks are coming from an excellent win over Miami and what impressed me the most was their defense, as they were aggressive and kept putting pressure on their opponents. The Heat shot 46.5% FG, while the Knicks shot 42.9% FG, but the key was the turnovers with Miami committing 21 turnovers, while the Knicks made just 14! Defensively, the Knicks showed that they are a tough matchup on defense to Miami, as they have Tyson Chandler in the center position, who is pretty mobile and has a good team help defense, while the perimeter players also defend quite well, with Carmelo Anthony putting a good effort on the defensive end as well!
This will also work well against a team like Philadelphia, who, with Andrew Bynum still injured, lack a good presence on the inside, just like Miami! Philadelphia struggled on offense against Denver on their first game of the season and this will continue until Andrew Bynum returns.
The pace of yesterday's game between the Knicks and Miami was 87.51 and this half court style will continue being the Knicks' style for this season. I believe this game will have a similar pace, as Philadelphia has also been a half court team. The Knicks showed some good ball movement, but they are completely perimeter oriented by scoring just 22 points in the paint, while having an incredible 36 3pts attempts! Fortunately for them, they ended the game with 19-36 (52.8%) 3pts! However, the 76ers were a great perimeter defensive team last season, while being 6th in the league in 3pts defense by allowing just 33.4% 3pts to their opponents! I believe the same will happen this season, as they left one of the most potent offenses in the league with just 75 points scored and an offensive rate of 79.04! Philadelphia doesn't have a dominant interior presence on defense, but against a team that relies on their perimeter to have good offensive efficiency, that won't really matter and the 76ers should indeed have a good defensive game today.
With this game having an early 12PM EST start, this is not a good spot for shooters and therefore, I expect a show paced game in here, with both teams struggling to have any kind of decent offensive efficiency in here. Therefore, I came up with a totals projected of 181 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Philadelphia 84 NY Knicks 100
NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Toronto Raptors
Projected Line: 182 points | Toronto by 6 points
***Double Dime Play***
Toronto is winless this season, but they could easily be 2-0 right now. They faced Indiana and Brooklyn so far, two playoff contenders, and they gave them a good fight. Even though this is a back to back game for Toronto, the fact that the Raptors play at home today will make them be fired up to finally get the first win of the season.
Toronto's game yesterday has a fast pace and the Raptors had a sharp first quarter on offense by shooting 60% FG, assists on 12 of the 15 field goals made, while committing just one turnover. The problem was their second quarter, where a poor stretch of the second unit that had some defensive struggles and couldn't compensate the natural problems of their offense. Still, the Raptors cameback and had chances to win the game down the stretch. Their biggest problem was Brook Lopez, who was great last night and had also a bit of help from the referees in Brooklyn's new arena debut that didn't allow Toronto to be physical on their defense. In fact, the Raptors committed 31 personal fouls, while Brooklyn had just 19, something that caused both Jonas Valanciunas and Amir Johnson to be in early foul trouble. With this Brook Lopez had an easy matchup against the Raptors frontcourt and ended the game with 8-17 FG and especially 11-15 FT, something not usual for him, as he isn't aggressive enough to get 15 FT attempts in a single game!
Toronto will have an easier matchup today, as they will face Minnesota, who is still without Kevin Love. Derrick Williams and Andrei Kirilenko have been the team's forwards, so Andrea Bargnani won't have a bad matchup in here. Minnesota was the best defensive team in the league during the preseason and they really shutdown Sacramento on their first game of the season by allowing just 80 points and an offensive rate of 85.9! The Wolves are athletic on the backcourt and AK47 is terrific in rotation and providing some help defense. The problem is that Minnesota is still a work in progress on offense and Kevin Love's is a huge absence on the offensive end. The fact that they had just 17 assists against the Kings shows exactly this. Toronto has also a good defensive backcourt and therefore, I expect this game to become a defensive battle. I expect some edge for Kyle Lowry over the Wolves backcourt and with Andrea Bargnani also taking advantage of his size edge against both Andrei Kirilenko and Derrick Williams. Therefore, I expect a relatively comfortable win for Toronto in a defensive battle and so, I'll be taking both the Raptors and the Under in here with the Under being a Double Dime Play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703/704 Under 189.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Toronto Raptors (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Minnesota 86 Toronto 105 (Under 189.5 / TOR -3)
NBA - 705 Phoenix Suns @ 706 Orlando Magic
Projected Line: 197 points | Orlando by 5 points
I have to give merit to coach Jacque Vaughn on Orlando's first game of the season against Denver. I took both the Nuggets and the Over, but Orlando completely outplayed them and we didn't win the over not because of Orlando, but because of the inept offense of the Nuggets, as Orlando scored 102 points in a nice offensive rate of 110.77! For a team that suffered so many changes and has a new coach, the truth is that the offense flowed and cut in ways that haven’t been seen in an Orlando Magic uniform in a long time. “The shots can come from anywhere on the floor”, said J.J. Redick post game, “We have a lot of guys can pass the ball and with all the movement we’ll be a tough offense to guard.”
Not only Orlando had a good ball movement with great outside looks, as Orlando also outscored Denver by 60-36 in points in the point, which was a clear indicative of the team flashing to the rim and sharing the ball! Suddenly, even players like E'Twaun Moore, Josh McRoberts and the rookie Andrew Nicholson were contributing and even Hedo Turkuglu's injury and Nikola Vucevic's foul trouble stopped the team from having great chemistry in both in the starting lineup and the second unit. Orlando was also good on defense, but Denver also helped them with a terrible offensive game. They weren't aggressive in attacking the rim, they tried too many jumpshots, they didn't create transition opportunities and they were sloppy on offense.
The Magic will now face Phoenix and I watched both games the Suns have already played on the regular season, so I can say that Phoenix isn't having the same good chemistry that Orlando already possesses. Their bench is simply awful and they are still learning the team's offense. Note that in their game against Detroit, they had just 15 assists. The good news is that we are in front of two teams who have been playing on a fast pace in all games they've played so far, so we will have a fast paced game in here. Phoenix has a soft frontcourt, so Glen Davis has conditions to have a good offensive game again.
I expect this game to be tight, but Orlando's superior second unit will end up making the difference. Even though Phoenix has indeed more talent than the Magic, Orlando is clearly superior to Phoenix in terms of team chemistry right now and this will be the key difference on this game. I believe in an Orlando win tonight in a fast paced game, therefore I'll be taking both the Magic and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Orlando Magic (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Final Score: Phoenix 94 Orlando 115
NBA - 707 Atlanta Hawks @ 708 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: 202 points
This is a great spot for Oklahoma City to have a great offensive outburst. After a tough loss in San Antonio, the Thunder played a back to back game against Portland at home and they still scored 106 points in a bad spot. They are now rested for this contest and they will face Atlanta's poor defense, who will be without Josh Smith and Johan Petro, so they will be super undersized in here.
Atlanta is still a work in progress, even though they had a good preseason. However, on their first game of the regular season, it was immediately evident that they have a problem: a bad perimeter defense and especially, their inability of stopping the dribble penetration of the opposing guards, something that James Harden took advantage to completely pound them with 14-19 FG, 15-17 FT and 45 points! Without Josh Smith's versatility, how will Atlanta stop Russell Westbrook? They won't! Very few teams can limit Westbtook's high speed game and Atlanta isn't certainly one of them right now.
The Hawks also had a new identity on offense, with a much quicker pace than usual. In fact, they scored an incredible 33 fast break points against Houston, while their outside shooting is terrific! Kendrick Perkins is limited with a leg injury and I don't believe he will play major minutes tonight, so with Atlanta playing with an undersized lineup, we will watch Kevin Durant at the PF position for major minutes tonight, something that indicates that the Thunder will play small ball in here, something that improves their offense. I expect a fast paced game in here, with both teams having a good offensive night, especially Oklahoma City, therefore I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 198.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Final Score: Atlanta 104 Oklahoma City 95