1-2 yesterday, the Mavericks are terrible and should feel bad for the effort they put out last night, giving up two defensive rebounds on missed free throws is not something that should ever happen at home in the playoffs. Back to even on the Conference Finals record, CLEAN SLATE.
Boston Celtics -7; The Miami Heat overcame Jimmy Butler's absence from most of the game with a resounding 6 point win on the road. They also nabbed a record 19 steals in this game. This made the turnover differential 8 for Miami to 23 for Boston, the main reason why the Heat won this game. 33 of Miami's points came from these turnovers. Both teams shot around the same percentage for the full game, Boston was flat in the first and made up for it with a great second half shooting performance. The player who will be out for tonight, Tyler Herro, had a mediocre game 3, going 4-15 for 8 points. I think even if the Heat get Jimmy Butler back for decent minutes, and Marcus Smart plays as well as Timelord, Boston has the edge here. Teams can win one on the road coming off of an embarrassing loss, but it is much harder to do twice in a row. I like Boston to show up and return to form tonight, covering the points in a big home win as they take care of the ball better, and play better defense. Double result here at (-130) or so is a viable option if you are uncomfortable laying the 7.
Heat/Celtics Total Over 205.5; I initially thought about taking the under here, but the line came down so much, I really like it around 205. This series has gone over this number ever game but 1 hitting 204. Boston shot extremely poorly in the first half of game 3, going 15-35 from the floor and 3-12 from the arc. Couple this with the fact that Jimmy Butler missed the majority of the game, and Jayson Tatum had one of his signature off days, uncharacteristically going 3-14 for 10 points, and I think we have a recipe for a bit more points in this one. Celtics Team Total at 106 is probably a good take here also, might sprinkle it as well.
Good luck tonight.