2-1 yesterday, with a beefy live play on Heat 3Q at half. Let’s see if it continues. Shorter write up today because of technical and time constraints.
Golden State Warriors -5; While I think Dallas has a shot to win this series, tonight is not their night. We saw the Mavs in round 2 get destroyed in the first game, and I feel like they improve defensively and game plan wise as a series progresses. Credit to Jason Kidd for adjusting lineups and defensive schemes to create the mass amount of turnovers that became the Phoenix Suns’ identity late in that series. While the Mavs did take 2/3 games from the Warriors when they played in the regular season, none of those games had the Warriors at full strength, and let’s be honest, postseason Golden State is a whole different animal. I actually think Golden State’s smaller quicker lineups with fast hands matches up against Luka a bit better than most. The Mavs could very well win this series, and I see it going 6-7 games, but tonight belongs to the Warriors.
Mavericks/Warriors Total Over 214; Much the same reasoning as my Warriors side pick, I think the Mavs take time to figure out an opponent defensively. I see this first one as a score fest, as both teams can get inside at will, and can shoot behind the arc. Game 1’s have a good history of going over. We consistently see throughout these playoffs, score totals dropping as a series drags on, when teams start to get real familiar with each other and can adjust lineups and play. Both of these teams are masters at adjustments, and I think we take some unders later in the series. Tonight belongs to the points, much like what we saw in Celtics/Heat game 1.
I actually did see a prop I wanted to take tonight. When I looked at the regular season matchups between these two.
Curry over 5.5 assists; Kidd’s approach to Curry in the regular season was to double, which led to kick outs and open shots for his teammates. Since this is game 1, and he is the most dangerous player on the floor, I think we get more of the same here.
Good luck tonight.