Overall: 31-13
This could be my last posted play for NBA for this season. Win or lose. I really like this game so I’m highlighting this pick. It’s been a solid playoff so let’s end this on a good note.
ive been a little busy and I wanted to double check a few things before posting.
the first we have to think about is how the public will bet this and what the books actually want us to bet. Every game in the first half has went under. The books keep adjusting but they haven’t been able to do enough yet. Everyone will also be the suns because the idea “how many times have they lost two in a row and they have to win this game to win a championship”. Which it’s not necessarily true but there have been instances where the loser of game 5 wins the championship (I know it’s something like 21-8 the winner of game 5 is? Somebody can correct me if I’m wrong). Suns and under would be the obvious plays. Let’s also not forget everyone is on the stance how dominant these teams have been on their home courts
The bucks have increased their scoring and are putting up 110 a game. If the suns are going to win this game they are going to have to go back to run and gun style which will help the pace of play. If you have followed the in play total for the first half you would have noticed the total has been on pace to go over the total in every game this series but in the last three minutes both teams have went cold where the under has benefited from. Oddly we haven’t had a situation where the teams have been in the bonus early in a first half. Tomorrow may be the game.
let’s focus on just the finals. Dating back to the 2015 we have never saw every first half go under or over the total (the most is 4 in a row). Interesting enough the opposite of the trend has happened the next game. When we narrow the first half to game 5 and on: the over is 5-1 with total being cleared by 8 or more points in all but one of the victories.
the suns coughed up the ball 17 times last game. I don’t see this repeating itself on their home court. They should lessen the turnovers and find ways to get better scoring opportunities. This looks to be the lowest total of the series esp if everyone starts pounding the under even more. The suns by the numbers are more efficient in the first half based on with net numbers.
we may get a better number here which only helps this over even more. I think the bucks have a good chance in this game. They have the MVP and the MVP never ends up on the losing team. The suns aren’t going to roll over to bucks at home if they do lose this game so I expect this game to reach the total in the first half.
Over 106.5 but I encourage everyone to wait to see if you can get a little better number just in case we have to sweat this out.
good luck to everyone tomorrow