568 Wizards (-3) over Pacers
With the Wizards having as many ups and downs during the season I don’t think they’re properly valued and in this spot I have them 5 points better than the Pacers and this line is suggesting they’re only 2 points better. Over their last 15 games they’ve gone 12-3 and over their last 7 home games the Wizards have a scoring margin of +7.7. They’re coming off a tough loss to the Mavs but I think it was an impressive loss considering being in a scheduling disadvantage and how well they played to give themselves a chance to win late and they should have. Westbrook is playing with an amazing rhythm as he does whatever the Wizards need him to do to win and I expect Bradley Beal to have a much better start to the game. He played a lot better in the 2nd half and got to the free throw line 11 times against the Mavs and I think he continues to stay aggressive as this is a big game for both teams. In the 2nd half of their game with the Mavs Scott Brooks inserted Daniel Gafford into the starting lineup and when he’s on the floor he has more of an impact on the game on both ends so would even think Brooks either moves him into the starting lineup for this game or he plays 25+ minutes.
The Pacers are coming scoring 152 points and winning by 57 but it came against a Thunder team that is obviously tanking and did not play any of their key players so they are not that good. Their also dealing with an injury to one of their key players Malcolm Brogdon who’s questionable dealing with a hamstring issue so whether he plays or not I don’t expect him to be 100% as he’s missed their last 2 games. These teams played back on 3/29 and the Wizards were without Bradley Beal and in his absence Westbrook put up a monster stat line 35 points, 21 assists and 14 rebounds. I don’t expect him to put up that big of numbers again because Beal will be playing so Westbrook will be looking to get his teammates involved early and pick his spots later on.
Russell Westbrook Pts + Reb + AST Over 48.5 (-122) @ FanDuel
In the Wizards last 5 games Westbrook has went over this total 3 times and 1 of the 2 times he didn’t was against the Cavs as he was on pace to go over this number and then the game turned into a blowout and Westbrook did not need to play for most of the 4th quarter. With this being a huge game for both teams for the play-in tournament I expect Westbrook will play his normal 36 minutes and over his last 10 games he’s been playing 38 minutes. Also when these teams played back on 3/29 Westbrook went over this number by 21.5 so I’ll gladly play this number over as he only needs 5 triple doubles to break Oscar Robertson’s record for most triple doubles in a career.