Too see the chart below in a nicer format check out: twitter.com/.../1222879958831370242
This is too early to know, but last night I evaluated the new metric I have been posting here and it is showing some promise:
FavPct and UndPct represent my latest metric, which tells how well one team matches up with another taking into account the spread.
The higher the number, the better the teams chance of covering the spread.
Here is what I found last night:
If you take (FavPct - UndPct) you get the Favorites Matchup advantage (FAV ADV) |
Bet the FAVORITE when FAV ADV is 30+ |
Bet the UNDERDOG when FAV ADV is -30+ |
Record: (35-13 72.9%) since I began posting this on the forum. |
Below can be verified, I have posted all these daily, but I summarized last night...
It could be total luck, too early to know...
gametime |
fav |
ha |
spd |
und |
FavPct |
UndPct |
FAV ADV |
WhoCovered |
Win/Loss |
20200129 |
HOU |
A |
2 |
POR |
5 |
13 |
-8 |
|
|
20200129 |
OKC |
A |
3 |
SAC |
36 |
21 |
15 |
|
|
20200129 |
UTA |
A |
5 |
SAS |
31 |
-11 |
42 |
SAS |
L |
20200129 |
MEM |
A |
2.5 |
NYK |
37 |
10 |
27 |
|
|
20200129 |
BKN |
H |
6.5 |
DET |
24 |
8 |
16 |
|
|
20200129 |
IND |
H |
9 |
CHI |
36 |
-41 |
77 |
PUSH |
P |
20200128 |
DAL |
H |
7.5 |
PHX |
21 |
1 |
20 |
PHX |
|
20200128 |
MIL |
H |
16 |
WAS |
70 |
-17 |
87 |
MIL |
W |
20200128 |
MEM |
H |
1.5 |
DEN |
-11 |
9 |
-20 |
MEM |
|
20200128 |
TOR |
H |
13 |
ATL |
39 |
-5 |
44 |
TOR |
W |
20200128 |
NOP |
A |
8 |
CLE |
24 |
34 |
-10 |
NOP |
|
20200128 |
MIA |
H |
1 |
BOS |
-6 |
12 |
-18 |
BOS |
|
20200128 |
PHI |
H |
12 |
GSW |
29 |
22 |
7 |
GSW |
|
20200128 |
CHA |
H |
1.5 |
NYK |
28 |
48 |
-20 |
CHA |
|
20200127 |
UTA |
H |
13 |
HOU |
7 |
-16 |
23 |
HOU |
|
20200127 |
SAS |
A |
2 |
CHI |
18 |
28 |
-10 |
CHI |
|
20200127 |
MIN |
H |
3.5 |
SAC |
18 |
38 |
-20 |
SAC |
|
20200127 |
DAL |
A |
1 |
OKC |
17 |
27 |
-10 |
DAL |
|
20200127 |
MIA |
H |
5.5 |
ORL |
-12 |
-7 |
-5 |
MIA |
|
20200127 |
DET |
H |
7 |
CLE |
20 |
36 |
-16 |
CLE |
|
20200126 |
POR |
H |
2.5 |
IND |
-31 |
-3 |
-28 |
POR |
|
20200126 |
ATL |
H |
1 |
WAS |
20 |
13 |
7 |
ATL |
|
20200126 |
NYK |
H |
1.5 |
BKN |
17 |
32 |
-15 |
NYK |
|
20200126 |
LAC |
A |
3.5 |
ORL |
-5 |
-50 |
45 |
LAC |
W |
20200126 |
MEM |
H |
2 |
PHX |
33 |
16 |
17 |
MEM |
|
20200126 |
NOP |
H |
1 |
BOS |
-7 |
15 |
-22 |
NOP |
|
20200126 |
TOR |
A |
3 |
SAS |
49 |
-9 |
58 |
TOR |
W |
20200126 |
DEN |
H |
1 |
HOU |
-6 |
-6 |
0 |
DEN |
|
20200125 |
LAL |
A |
4 |
PHI |
9 |
-23 |
32 |
PHI |
L |
20200125 |
OKC |
A |
2 |
MIN |
43 |
20 |
23 |
OKC |
|
20200125 |
CLE |
H |
1.5 |
CHI |
9 |
45 |
-36 |
CHI |
W |
20200125 |
BKN |
A |
2 |
DET |
35 |
6 |
29 |
BKN |
|
20200125 |
UTA |
H |
4 |
DAL |
38 |
-56 |
94 |
UTA |
W |
20200124 |
IND |
A |
6 |
GSW |
2 |
-17 |
19 |
IND |
|
20200124 |
SAS |
H |
4 |
PHX |
-6 |
24 |
-30 |
PHX |
W |
20200124 |
OKC |
H |
11 |
ATL |
17 |
13 |
4 |
OKC |
|
20200124 |
NOP |
H |
3.5 |
DEN |
-3 |
-3 |
0 |
DEN |
|
20200124 |
HOU |
A |
5.5 |
MIN |
18 |
0 |
18 |
HOU |
|
20200124 |
LAC |
A |
2.5 |
MIA |
3 |
7 |
-4 |
LAC |
|
20200124 |
CHI |
H |
2 |
SAC |
12 |
-2 |
14 |
SAC |
|
20200124 |
TOR |
A |
8 |
NYK |
22 |
-33 |
55 |
NYK |
L |
20200124 |
DET |
H |
1 |
MEM |
32 |
27 |
5 |
MEM |
|
20200124 |
ORL |
H |
2 |
BOS |
1 |
-2 |
3 |
BOS |
|
20200124 |
MIL |
A |
14 |
CHA |
30 |
-28 |
58 |
CHA |
L |
20200123 |
DAL |
A |
4 |
POR |
3 |
18 |
-15 |
DAL |
|
20200123 |
LAL |
A |
5.5 |
BKN |
3 |
-49 |
52 |
LAL |
W |
20200123 |
CLE |
H |
1.5 |
WAS |
34 |
28 |
6 |
WAS |
|
20200122 |
UTA |
A |
8 |
GSW |
17 |
-20 |
37 |
UTA |
W |
20200122 |
IND |
A |
1 |
PHX |
13 |
-37 |
50 |
IND |
W |
20200122 |
CHI |
H |
1 |
MIN |
39 |
34 |
5 |
CHI |
|
20200122 |
HOU |
H |
8.5 |
DEN |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
HOU |
|
20200122 |
NOP |
H |
3.5 |
SAS |
4 |
30 |
-26 |
SAS |
|
20200122 |
BOS |
H |
7 |
MEM |
-3 |
-6 |
3 |
BOS |
|
20200122 |
LAC |
A |
4 |
ATL |
19 |
-17 |
36 |
ATL |
L |
20200122 |
TOR |
H |
6.5 |
PHI |
17 |
-17 |
34 |
TOR |
W |
20200122 |
LAL |
A |
12 |
NYK |
23 |
-28 |
51 |
NYK |
L |
20200122 |
MIA |
H |
10 |
WAS |
38 |
10 |
28 |
WAS |
|
20200122 |
ORL |
H |
1.5 |
OKC |
1 |
23 |
-22 |
OKC |
|
20200122 |
DET |
H |
1 |
SAC |
11 |
27 |
-16 |
DET |
|
20200121 |
DAL |
H |
1.5 |
LAC |
-5 |
14 |
-19 |
LAC |
|
20200120 |
POR |
H |
6.5 |
GSW |
24 |
3 |
21 |
GSW |
|
20200120 |
PHX |
H |
4.5 |
SAS |
15 |
26 |
-11 |
SAS |
|
20200120 |
UTA |
H |
7 |
IND |
-35 |
-34 |
-1 |
UTA |
|
20200120 |
MIN |
H |
2.5 |
DEN |
3 |
23 |
-20 |
DEN |
|
20200120 |
LAL |
A |
2 |
BOS |
-18 |
-36 |
18 |
BOS |
|
20200120 |
HOU |
H |
6.5 |
OKC |
1 |
9 |
-8 |
OKC |
|
20200120 |
MEM |
H |
2.5 |
NOP |
38 |
19 |
19 |
NOP |
|
20200120 |
ORL |
A |
4.5 |
CHA |
34 |
-15 |
49 |
ORL |
W |
20200120 |
CLE |
H |
1.5 |
NYK |
36 |
52 |
-16 |
NYK |
|
20200120 |
MIL |
H |
15 |
CHI |
3 |
-29 |
32 |
CHI |
L |
20200120 |
MIA |
H |
6 |
SAC |
7 |
-17 |
24 |
SAC |
|
20200120 |
BKN |
H |
1.5 |
PHI |
3 |
22 |
-19 |
PHI |
|
20200120 |
TOR |
A |
8 |
ATL |
3 |
25 |
-22 |
ATL |
|
20200120 |
WAS |
H |
1 |
DET |
31 |
32 |
-1 |
WAS |
|
20200119 |
MIA |
A |
1 |
SAS |
0.502873563218 |
-2.68542199488 |
3.188295558 |
SAS |
|
20200119 |
DEN |
H |
1.5 |
IND |
4.09482758621 |
-12.2222222222 |
16.31704981 |
IND |
|
20200118 |
UTA |
H |
9 |
SAC |
6.79945054945 |
-44.4444444444 |
51.243895 |
UTA |
W |
20200118 |
OKC |
H |
6 |
POR |
20.4415954416 |
23.6842105263 |
-3.24261508 |
OKC |
|
20200118 |
ORL |
A |
5.5 |
GSW |
31.5270935961 |
16.7755991285 |
14.75149447 |
GSW |
|
20200118 |
HOU |
H |
2 |
LAL |
-19.2708333333 |
7.14285714286 |
-26.4136905 |
LAL |
|
20200118 |
CHI |
H |
6.5 |
CLE |
42.4242424242 |
22.4567099567 |
19.96753247 |
CLE |
|
20200118 |
TOR |
A |
5 |
MIN |
14.4642857143 |
-13.6961722488 |
28.16045796 |
TOR |
|
20200118 |
PHI |
A |
4 |
NYK |
-1.70807453416 |
-26.5294117647 |
24.82133723 |
NYK |
|
20200118 |
DET |
A |
1.5 |
ATL |
28.8194444444 |
7.88352272727 |
20.93592172 |
DET |
|
20200118 |
BOS |
H |
7 |
PHX |
3.37301587302 |
-16.3461538462 |
19.71916972 |
PHX |
|
20200118 |
MIL |
A |
9 |
BKN |
0.652173913043 |
-30.1510989011 |
30.8032728 |
MIL |
W |
20200118 |
LAC |
A |
5.5 |
NOP |
9.13043478261 |
13.8157894737 |
-4.68535469 |
NOP |
|
20200117 |
DAL |
H |
7.5 |
POR |
2.77777777778 |
12.7894736842 |
-10.0116959 |
DAL |
|
20200117 |
SAS |
H |
8.5 |
ATL |
-12.7240143369 |
18.3152173913 |
-31.039232 |
ATL |
W |
20200117 |
MEM |
H |
8 |
CLE |
14.0625 |
31.4935064935 |
-17.4310065 |
CLE |
|
20200117 |
OKC |
H |
1.5 |
MIA |
-7.9347826087 |
-5.45977011494 |
-2.47501249 |
MIA |
|
20200117 |
IND |
H |
8.5 |
MIN |
5.35714285714 |
-25 |
30.3571429 |
MIN |
L |
20200117 |
TOR |
H |
11 |
WAS |
20.6896551724 |
-23.5897435897 |
44.2793988 |
TOR |
W |
20200117 |
PHI |
H |
7 |
CHI |
6.25 |
-3.72596153846 |
9.975961538 |
PHI |
|
20200116 |
DEN |
A |
4.5 |
GSW |
2.32142857143 |
-4.91071428571 |
7.232142857 |
GSW |
|
20200116 |
LAC |
H |
12 |
ORL |
6.0119047619 |
-15.8928571429 |
21.9047619 |
LAC |
|
20200116 |
UTA |
A |
4.5 |
NOP |
23.2837528604 |
-24.7282608696 |
48.0120137 |
NOP |
L |
20200116 |
MIL |
H |
9.5 |
BOS |
-12.9399585921 |
-33.6111111111 |
20.67115252 |
BOS |
|
20200116 |
PHX |
A |
3 |
NYK |
29.6875 |
-7.4358974359 |
37.1233974 |
PHX |
W |
20200115 |
LAL |
H |
11 |
ORL |
-16.9642857143 |
-11.7647058824 |
-5.19957983 |
ORL |
|
20200115 |
DAL |
A |
4 |
SAC |
1.13636363636 |
-10.0543478261 |
11.19071146 |
PUSH |
|
20200115 |
HOU |
H |
8.5 |
POR |
-0.5 |
14.0625 |
-14.5625 |
POR |
|
20200115 |
DEN |
H |
11 |
CHA |
0.367647058824 |
3.57142857143 |
-3.20378151 |
DEN |
|
20200115 |
CHI |
H |
4 |
WAS |
55.46875 |
4.75543478261 |
50.7133152 |
CHI |
W |
20200115 |
OKC |
H |
1.5 |
TOR |
-59.7826086957 |
32.5 |
-92.282609 |
TOR |
W |
20200115 |
IND |
A |
2 |
MIN |
5.58823529412 |
-46.884057971 |
52.4722933 |
IND |
W |
20200115 |
MIA |
H |
5.5 |
SAS |
20.2380952381 |
-6.86274509804 |
27.10084034 |
MIA |
|
20200115 |
BOS |
H |
8.5 |
DET |
29.2270531401 |
-0.339366515837 |
29.56641966 |
DET |
|
20200115 |
PHI |
H |
7.5 |
BKN |
27.619047619 |
-10.3125 |
37.9315476 |
PHI |
W |
20200114 |
DAL |
A |
8 |
GSW |
37.0535714286 |
-9.34523809524 |
46.3988095 |
DAL |
W |
20200114 |
LAC |
H |
15 |
CLE |
38.0747126437 |
9.19312169312 |
28.88159095 |
LAC |
|
20200114 |
MIL |
H |
17 |
NYK |
32.2984749455 |
-12.8694581281 |
45.1679331 |
MIL |
W |
20200114 |
HOU |
A |
5 |
MEM |
24.8746867168 |
9.54106280193 |
15.33362391 |
MEM |
|
20200114 |
UTA |
A |
3.5 |
BKN |
30.9411764706 |
-48.9880952381 |
79.9292717 |
UTA |
W |
20200114 |
PHX |
A |
3 |
ATL |
32.8125 |
30.0595238095 |
2.752976191 |
ATL |
|
20200113 |
LAL |
H |
14 |
CLE |
37.7320954907 |
-38.3680555556 |
76.100151 |
LAL |
W |
20200113 |
SAC |
H |
2 |
ORL |
3.07917888563 |
4.59956709957 |
-1.52038821 |
ORL |
|
20200113 |
POR |
H |
9.5 |
CHA |
29.1176470588 |
16.2946428571 |
12.8230042 |
CHA |
|
20200113 |
OKC |
A |
2.5 |
MIN |
33.3333333333 |
-9.09610983982 |
42.4294432 |
OKC |
W |
20200113 |
BOS |
H |
10 |
CHI |
16.6666666667 |
-2.34375 |
19.01041667 |
BOS |
|
20200113 |
DET |
H |
1.5 |
NOP |
31.0763888889 |
30.9606481481 |
0.115740741 |
NOP |
|
20200113 |
IND |
H |
2 |
PHI |
27.4117647059 |
-24.9358974359 |
52.3476621 |
IND |
W |
20200112 |
PHX |
H |
8.5 |
CHA |
48.5714285714 |
50.6696428571 |
-2.09821429 |
CHA |
|
20200112 |
LAC |
A |
0 |
DEN |
0.705128205128 |
21.75066313 |
-21.0455349 |
DEN |
|
20200112 |
TOR |
H |
3.5 |
SAS |
45.8333333333 |
-11.25 |
57.0833333 |
SAS |
L |
20200112 |
MEM |
H |
6.5 |
GSW |
29.4642857143 |
22.5 |
6.964285714 |
MEM |
|
20200112 |
BKN |
H |
7.5 |
ATL |
76.8907563025 |
-15.1111111111 |
92.0018674 |
BKN |
W |
20200112 |
UTA |
A |
8.5 |
WAS |
10.7142857143 |
-22.6715686275 |
33.3858543 |
UTA |
W |
20200112 |
MIA |
A |
8 |
NYK |
53.1969309463 |
4.29061784897 |
48.9063131 |
NYK |
L |
20200111 |
MIL |
A |
6 |
POR |
7.24431818182 |
-17.0426065163 |
24.2869247 |
MIL |
|
20200111 |
DEN |
H |
13 |
CLE |
4.16666666667 |
-2.71990740741 |
6.886574074 |
CLE |
|
20200111 |
DAL |
H |
2 |
PHI |
1.92307692308 |
-4.67948717949 |
6.602564103 |
DAL |
|
20200111 |
LAL |
A |
1 |
OKC |
18.3712121212 |
-53.125 |
71.4962121 |
LAL |
W |
20200111 |
DET |
H |
4 |
CHI |
-2.5 |
44.5454545455 |
-47.045455 |
CHI |
W |
20200111 |
BOS |
H |
9.5 |
NOP |
-9.19117647059 |
-17.5403225806 |
8.34914611 |
BOS |
|
20200111 |
HOU |
H |
11 |
MIN |
38.1944444444 |
-7.98387096774 |
46.1783154 |
HOU |
W |
20200110 |
LAC |
H |
14 |
GSW |
44 |
6 |
38 |
GSW |
L |
20200110 |
MIL |
A |
8.5 |
SAC |
7 |
-26 |
33 |
MIL |
W |
20200110 |
PHX |
H |
3 |
ORL |
2 |
33 |
-31 |
PHX |
L |
20200110 |
UTA |
H |
12 |
CHA |
22 |
-26 |
48 |
UTA |
W |
20200110 |
DAL |
H |
2 |
LAL |
-23 |
4 |
-27 |
LAL |
|
20200110 |
IND |
A |
2.5 |
CHI |
-5 |
-31 |
26 |
IND |
|
20200110 |
NOP |
A |
5 |
NYK |
30 |
-9 |
39 |
NOP |
W |
20200110 |
MEM |
H |
0 |
SAS |
29 |
5 |
24 |
MEM |
|
20200110 |
MIA |
A |
3.5 |
BKN |
9 |
-1 |
10 |
BKN |
|
20200110 |
WAS |
H |
0 |
ATL |
16 |
28 |
-12 |
WAS |
|