On a nice little run here in the postseason.. let’s hope it continues.
FYI I also really like KD OVER 25.5 PTS
Warriors -8.5
- Since 2014, the Warriors are 49-36 (58%) ATS in the playoffs. They are 60% ATS with an average MOV of 60% since KD arrived. We know this team has another level they can hit when they are fully engaged, and that’s been demonstrated by their ATS dominance in the postseason. This season, the Warriors have won six in a row off a loss, winning by an average of 14.3 PPG. As a road favorite of 6 or more in the playoffs, the Warriors are 9-0 with a COVER margin of 9.8 PPG. Through the first six quarters of the series, the Warriors outscored the Clippers by 40 points. Multiple players and Steve Kerr have said the team coasted and lost focus after that, leading to one of the most embarrassing blown leads in NBA history. I believe the matchup edges we saw from the first six quarters show what the Warriors are fully capable of when they are locked in, which is total domination against this team. This might be one of the best spots we get the Warriors at in the past few years, a pissed off fully focused ball club against a clearly inferior team that they’ve proved they can dominate against for long stretches of time. Don’t overthink it.
Spurs -3 -120
- First let’s look at the fact that the Nuggets are a below 500 team on the road, while the Spurs are 32-9 at home. The Nuggets played 6 playoff teams on the road to end the season, going 1-5. The closest loss was by 7 points. The Spurs are a bad road team, but managed to clearly outplay this Spurs team in Denver for 7 quarters, and the most impressive part was how they outplayed them for the first 3 quarters last game despite Denver being in a home run spot. The Nuggets have had no answers for the Spurs top players, while the Spurs have done an excellent job YTD against Jokic and a great job against Murray this series (aside from one quarter).