716 Thunder -3.5 over Jazz
Going with the Thunder to keep there season alive and force a Game 6 back in Utah. The Thunder have been at their best all year when their facing adversity and there's no more adversity than facing elimination on your home court but there are a few reasons why I like them in this spot and to get back to OKC to force a game 7 but let's stick to this matchup. Despite being down 3-1 I'm not willing to write this team off yet like the media has. The Thunder poor shooting has been overblown, while they have shot the ball well as a team in 2 games of this series, their early foul trouble problems were more important over the last 3 games. Steven Adams was in early foul trouble for games 2 and 3 and then Russell Westbrook was in early foul trouble for game 4. Before those players got in foul trouble early they were in control of every game looking to build on a double digit lead, I don't anticipate early foul trouble for their key players in this matchup. Also the Thunder are a much better home team than road team going 28-15 with a +5 point differential. Game 4 got away from OKC but their was an adjustment late that they made that I liked and they looked like a faster playing team and getting more ball movement and that was having Steven Adams and Patrick Patterson at the center and power forward spots together and moving Carmelo to the small forward position. Melo looks more comfortable as a small forward than power forward so hopefully they stick with that adjustment this game because I believe it helps offensively and defensively for Carmelo and the team. Over the last 3 seasons the Thunder have won 7 of the 8 matchups played in OKC by an average of 14.2 points so I'm looking for them to make the necessary adjustments and for them to feed off the energy that crowd is gonna bring.