I've been trying to work on a set of power ratings for the NBA like Fezzik and Brad Powers for football. You can get a lot of ratings from sites like TeamRankings, Fivethirtyeight, Sagarin, etc... but all of their ratings factor in every game played (including games where stars rest or are injured). For example, Philly might be rated a net 0 overall, but they may be more like a +3 with Embiid playing, and a -3 when he rests. If I take average ratings from these sites, I'm going to undervalue Philly when Embiid plays and overvalue Philly when he's out. Anyway, here's my attempt. I used an average HFA of 3. I listed ratings for current form, notes for today's rating, key players' value/worth to the spread, and HFA if more/less than 3. If the spread is greater than 9, I use a 4th quarter downward adjustment to account for relatively even scoring in the 4th quarter. I also use adjustments for home/road splits, "spots", zig-zag, etc... Let me know what you think...
Updated 6/3:
Updated: |
|
6/3/2018 |
6/3/2018 |
|
Injury |
Rank |
Team |
Current Form |
Base Rating |
HFA |
Notes for Today |
29 |
ATL |
-9 |
-9 |
2.5 |
Tank rating |
4 |
BOS |
3 |
3 |
3.5 |
|
23 |
BRK |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
2.5 |
|
20 |
CHA |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
|
|
25 |
CHI |
-10 |
-10 |
|
Tank Rating |
15 |
CLE |
5.5 |
5.5 |
3.5 |
Love1.5p |
21 |
DAL |
-8 |
-8 |
|
Tank rating |
17 |
DEN |
3 |
3 |
3.5 |
|
22 |
DET |
-1 |
-1 |
3.5 |
|
2 |
GS |
13 |
14 |
3.5 |
Iggy1d; Klay1? |
1 |
HOU |
4 |
8.5 |
3.5 |
Paul4.5d |
13 |
IND |
3 |
3 |
|
|
14 |
LAC |
-1 |
-1 |
|
|
16 |
LAL |
-2 |
-2 |
|
|
28 |
MEM |
-9 |
-9 |
2.5 |
Tank Rating |
12 |
MIA |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
|
19 |
MIL |
1 |
2 |
|
Henson1d |
8 |
MIN |
2 |
2 |
|
|
18 |
NOP |
3.5 |
3.5 |
|
|
27 |
NYK |
-7.5 |
-7.5 |
2.5 |
Tank rating |
9 |
OKC |
3 |
3 |
3.5 |
|
24 |
ORL |
-8.5 |
-8.5 |
|
Tank rating |
10 |
PHI |
5 |
5 |
|
|
30 |
PHO |
-9 |
-9 |
2 |
Tank rating |
6 |
POR |
1.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
Mail in game |
26 |
SAC |
-8 |
-8 |
2.5 |
Tank rating |
7 |
SAS |
1 |
1 |
|
Mail in game |
3 |
TOR |
4.5 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
|
5 |
UTA |
2 |
4 |
3.5 |
Rubio2d |
11 |
WAS |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Tonight's Matchups:
Date/Time |
Team |
Pwr Rtg |
Pure Spread |
Adj |
HFA |
Adj Spread |
Avg Score |
Notes (Name/value/status) P=Prob, ?=assumes in, D/O=doubt/out, assumes out; T=traded; Bold=Affected/Watch** |
6/3/2018 |
CLE |
5.5 |
12.0 |
0.5 |
|
Yes |
217.0 |
Lebron9p; Love1.5p; Korver1p; Nance0.5p; |
805 |
GS |
13.0 |
-12.0 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
-10.5 |
102.4% |
Curry4.5p; Durant4.5p; Draymon3p; West1.5p; Bell1p; Klay1?; Iggy1d; Zaza0.5p; JaVale0.5p; Looney0.5p |
6/6/2018 |
GS |
13.0 |
-3.5 |
0.5 |
|
No |
218.0 |
Curry4.5p; Durant4.5p; Draymon3p; West1.5p; Bell1p; Klay1p; Iggy1d; Zaza0.5p; JaVale0.5p; Looney0.5p |
905 |
CLE |
5.5 |
3.5 |
-1.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
102.8% |
Lebron9p; Love1.5p; Korver1p; Nance0.5p; |
6/8/2018 |
GS |
13.0 |
-3.5 |
0.5 |
|
No |
218.0 |
Curry4.5p; Durant4.5p; Draymon3p; West1.5p; Bell1p; Klay1p; Iggy1d; Zaza0.5p; JaVale0.5p; Looney0.5p |
905 |
CLE |
5.5 |
3.5 |
-1.0 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
102.8% |
Lebron9p; Love1.5p; Korver1p; Nance0.5p; |