*cracks knuckles*
It's been a while, so cut me some slack while I get back into the groove. I will break down every NBA team's mark, give my take, and list a confidence number from 1 to 10 (with 10 being highest).
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Atlanta Hawks UNDER 25.5 (Confidence: 1.5/10)
I happen to feel pretty strongly that this number is close to the mark. Well, they all are, but this Atlanta team is gutted, and the reason I'm leaning under is that oftentimes the number doesn't move far enough when a club unloads every reasonable asset. Atlanta has Dennis Schroder on its roster, and surrounded him with a host of no-names and second-year guys ... and a Plumlee brother. If Schroder misses any time at all, those are almost guaranteed L's, and even with him on the floor, this is a sad sack that'll probably end near 22-24 wins. On top of everything else, there's the innate possibility of tanking. Even if they get close to 25.5, they might literally stop trying.
Boston Celtics UNDER 55.5 (C: 8/10)
I'm a huge fan of this Under bet. The Celtics added Gordon Hayward, traded IT for Kyrie, and gave away Avery Bradley's contract to Detroit. Not to be left out, their defensive soloist Jae Crowder is gone, too. Boston made huge waves in the offseason and the world reacted by expecting them to win the East. But between serious chemistry lag (Al Horford is basically the one man left in town), and the fact that they traded away their heart (IT) and soul (Jae) for a pure scorer, the Celtics are going to find rather tough sledding, particular early on. Don't be surprised if this team drops 10 of its first 20 games, and at that point, rattling off 46 wins in 62 remaining games is a tall order. Boston might end up closer to 51, and that's a nice window. You might even be able to middle this puppy if they drop a bunch of games early and the line moves.
Brooklyn Nets OVER 26.5 (C: 2/10)
Not a strong wager to hope that this fecal pile of a squad can clear 26.5 wins, but it's a lean based almost entirely on the notion that they're still not making their own draft picks. Ah, how KG and Pierce can haunt a team forever. This team traded away its only leader in Brook Lopez, and Kenny Atkinson loves playing all his guys 26 minutes, but I do believe that a potentially healthy Jeremy Lin will get them working hard, and the young talent (Russell, LeVert, Rondae, Kilpatrick) combined with just enough crusty old veteran leadership (Lin, DeMarre, Crabbe, Booker) will wedge the Nets to 27-28 wins.
Charlotte Hornets UNDER 42.5 (3.5/10)
I am a firm believer that Dwight Howard is now hurting teams more than he helps. He's a logjam in the paint on offense in a modern NBA that favors ball movement and shooting. For many years he wasn't even doing the right things on defense, though he was a better citizen in his hometown of Atlanta last year, so perhaps that side of the equation is no longer a factor. Still, the Hornets were a pace and space team last year with Batum and Kemba running the offense, Marvin Williams spacing the floor, Cody Zeller flashing to the rim, and MKG doing some rebounding, and now suddenly, Dwight is going to plant himself near the rim and cut off everyone's lanes. I think Charlotte takes a step back.
Chicago Bulls OVER 22.5 (2.5/10)
This is probably a team best left un-bet. The Bulls are all D-Wade until at least the midway point, if Zach LaVine ever comes back healthy. And let's be honest, Wade is still decent enough to help this team beat some of the lackluster opponents in the NBA. But he's liable to be traded, and let's be fair, Robin Lopez and Cameron Payne aren't going to get it done. I think 22.5 is too low if Wade plays 60-70 games in Chicago, but the scare here is that he plays 35 and decides to soak his knees until he gets moved to Cleveland at the deadline. A scary over, if anything.
Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 53.5 (4/10)
Angry LeBron can win 55 games on his own, and the subtle addition of Jae Crowder makes this team substantially more formidable. IT's health is a huge question mark, but his fire is going to power this team, and a little defense will go an awfully long way. The Cavs can coast to 50 wins, so give me the Over on the chance they put 80% of their team's collective ass into 4 more games.
Dallas Mavericks UNDER 35.5 (4/10)
This team is bad, and old. 35.5 wins is a Rick Carlisle boosted number. Dirk Nowitzki can barely move, J.J. Barea and Devin Harris might play half a season each, and the Mavs are going to end up counting on the combination of Harrison Barnes, Seth Curry, Dennis Smith Jr. and Nerlens Noel to do most of their damage. Noel, who, by the way, is a player I really enjoy watching, can't keep his knees right, and Harrison going iso 25 times per night isn't a recipe for 36 wins in a loaded Western Conference. They'll get to 33.
Denver Nuggets OVER 45.5 (4.5/10)
The Nuggets might be my favorite team in the NBA. They were the best offensive club in the league the second half of last year, and they shored up the power forward spot in a big way with the signing of Paul Millsap. Another year of experience for Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray combined with a (hopefully) healthy Gary Harris gives this team an incredibly potent, and efficient squad. They'll outscore 35 teams this year, and with 15-20 other coin-flips, I'm confident they get to 47 wins and a playoff spot.
Detroit Pistons UNDER 38.5 (2.5/10)
I don't have a strong feel for the Pistons: I'll lay that out there up front. This team has the pieces to be insanely consistent (if fairly boring), with Andre Drummond a nice fixture at C, and now Avery Bradley a solid "new Kentavious." But Reggie Jackson has been a letdown (and injury-prone), Tobias Harris has been underutilized as one of the better players on the team, and the power forward situation is downright ugly ... unless Jon Leuer magically becomes exciting. This team beat some of the best and lost to some of the worst. I have no idea if that changes this year, but with some of the lesser teams in the East getting a tiny bit better and the upper echelon staying roughly the same, Detroit will need to pick on Indy to get over this number. I'm not confident they will.
Golden State Warriors UNDER 67.5 (1/10)
Watch Draymond Green in game one, and we'll already know if this bet is a winner. If he's angry, biting off earlobes and whatnot, the Dubs could win 80 games. If he looks complacent in their championship glory, it's going under. He's the bitter, stout, feisty motor on a team that will probably need some extra gusto. They've been crowned champions for the next quarter century, so it'd be pretty easy to throttle down during the regular season. KD got his ring -- will he be hungry? Steph Curry is the best shooter on the planet -- will he be hungry to outpace himself? Klay Thompson does the same exact thing every year, but that's neither here nor there. The key remains Draymond. I'm going to lean the absolute most microscopic bit to the under since I think they hit autopilot in January and lost 4-5 games. And you simply won't get to 70 wins unless you're locked in every night.
Houston Rockets UNDER 56.5 (5/10)
Much like the Celtics, chemistry will be a problem. Unlike the Celtics, the Rockets have almost unlimited firepower, and instead of replacing every part on the team besides center (Boston's big move), the Rockets replaced a defensive-minded point guard (Pat Bev) with a defensive-minded point guard (CP3) who can also, y'know, be one of the best guards in the league. Still, both he and Harden need the ball to be successful, and there will undoubtedly be a period where they try to defer, and then no one gets the ball in the right spot. Luckily, Harden and Paul can each end up creating something out of nothing. And they've still got Ariza, Gordon, Anderson, and most importantly, Capela to bang in threes and clean up around the rim, respectively. That being said, a slow start is almost inevitable and the West is a bitch.
Indiana Pacers OVER 31.5 (2.5/10)
Honestly, they'll probably win 32 games. This line is tight. The East has some bonafide stinker teams, so Indy will beat a few. Oladipo, Collison, Thad Young and Myles Turner aren't a terrible quartet, but there's just no depth and neither Oladipo nor Collison proved much of anything last year in bigger opportunities. This is a club ripe with fantasy value, but that's not really what you're here to read. They have enough to prove THIS year to give me some confidence that they'll fit it to the over. Barely. And if anyone gets hurt, they're cooked.
LA Clippers OVER 44.5 (6/10)
Chris Paul is gone and the SKY IS FALLING! Run for the hills! PANIC PANIC PANIC! Well, maybe not. The Clippers have shown in the past that they're just a hair over a 500-team when Paul has missed time, and that was with a ridiculous issue in the depth department. Obviously, this over is going to be hard to hit if Blake Griffin, Gallo and Pat Beverley miss more than a handful of games each with various injuries, but if you don't think this is a total chip-on-the-shoulder team, you haven't watched much Pat Bev. Dude is a maniac. The Clippers are going to play hard as hell this season, and they finally have a few extra warm bodies to come off the bench. Lou Williams is getting completely overlooked, but he fills the Jamal Crawford role in a much more efficient manner (free throws!), and J.J. Redick's slow butt is out of the way, too. Clippers will win 47 games.
LA Lakers UNDER 32.5 (6/10)
As confident as I am that the Clippers are going to surprise some people with some gritty wins, I'm equally confident the Lakers are still going to get rolled. They'll be better this year, but they still have glaring issues. A rookie point guard is a big one. Brandon Ingram might gain 80 pounds and still be 150 pounds underweight for the NBA. Brook Lopez is an obvious upgrade over Tina Fey Mosgov, but he'll carry this team only as far as he carried the Nets last year. 30 wins would be a nice goal.
Memphis Grizzlies OVER 37.5 (4.5/10)
Everyone is writing off the Grizz, but they're basically the same team as last season, they're still total grindmonsters, and they added a scorer. Okay, Tony Allen going elsewhere takes some of the anger-shine off the club, but Tony Allen is also 55 years old, so while his contributions from an in-your-face defense standpoint were morally helpful, his actual ability to stuff on the basketball court was withering. The Grizz might just do the same damn thing for yet another year, and that would get them to 500 ball.
Miami Heat OVER 43.5 (9/10)
Perhaps my favorite bet on the set. The Miami Heat would have steamtrained this number even last year if they didn't get off to such a miserable start. But this team is loaded to the hilt with above-average NBA talent, and a front office that doesn't do stupid **** like so many others do. Listen to this list of better-than-competent hoopers: Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson, Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, Wayne Ellington. These guys are good. They're deep, they're smart, and they have the type of positional fluidity that the modern NBA craves. They might win 50 games. And even with poor health, like last year, they can clear this number. A fully healthy team and they'll bust through the mark with a month to go.
Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 47.5 (1.5/10)
I can't solve this puzzle. This number looks wacky-high. Am I missing something. Giannis Antetokalalalapoopoo (I can spell it, that was just funnier in my head) is awesome. Transcendent. But one player doesn't win 48 games unless his first name sounds a bit more French. The Bron, I think it means. Khris Middleton is quite solid. But Jabari Parker is still out. Malcolm Brogdon is fine. But sheesh, 48 games to get there? Maybe they'll surprise me. I'd leave this one alone, frankly.
Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 48.5 (6.5/10)
This number is way huge. The Wolves won 30 games last year, if memory serves, maybe 31, and not many teams jump nearly 20 games year over year. Yes, KAT is getting better by the day, and the additions of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson are nice. Jeff Teague moves in; Ricky Rubio moves out. I just don't see Butler, the key swap here, getting this team to almost 50 wins. They had to give up Zach LaVine, too, so it's not like it was a simple addition. Thibs is a defensive coach and his guys don't play much defense. They trade off on offense, and Andrew Wiggins continues to be an uninspiring asset. This team should be gunning for 42-43 wins in a nice boost. If they clear 48 that's truly beefy. I have my doubts.
New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 39.5 (6/10)
Boogie and AD isn't going to work. Boogie, AD and Rondo is definitely not going to work. Boogie playing center forces AD farther from the bucket, neutralizing some of his rebounding and rim protection. Rondo can't shoot and he's going to want to run the offense. The only thing I LIKE about this configuration is that it shift Jrue Holiday over to the SG spot. He was a turnover machine at point last year. The West is too tough for a team with this many chemistry issues to get over that hurdle, and on top of all of their other problems, Alvin Gentry is somehow still there and they have zero ... ZERO depth. AD misses a week and they're cooked. Last year AD tried to take on the world and they lost every one of those games. They'll win 36-37 games.
New York Knicks UNDER 30.5 (3/10)
Still a train wreck, but Melo's uncertain future makes this a true gambler's play. If he gets moved, this team likely goes into tank mode. If Melo sticks around, he can gum up the offense while pouring his heart into every possession. Even in a stinker East, Knicks will end with 20-something wins ... the question is low or high 20's?
Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 50.5 (3.5/10)
I happen to think Westbrook is going to be out to prove he can coexist with another human, and I think it'll work to some degree. But again, you just can't muck around in the West and land in the 50s in wins. It's too hard. The Thunder will win their fair share of games, but there will be adjustment periods, Westbrook will still do insane things, and this team still has supersized issues at just about every other spot on the floor besides center. Russ can get them to 45 wins, but those extra few are going to be too tough to grab.
Orlando Magic UNDER 33.5 (2/10)
33.5 is a really good number for this club. Getting rid of Ibaka was an addition by subtraction situation, since Aaron Gordon shifting over to play the PF spot unleashed his potential. Fournier can take fewer shots and Elfrid Payton can work on trying to get his guys easier looks. Plus, Vuc is a nice quiet producer at center and the signing of Jonathan Simmons is going to be one of the better ones this offseason, particularly when it gets compared to the wild superstar moves going on. Still, while I think the Magic arrow is finally pointed up, 34 wins is a lot to ask of a team playing as the second-worst team in their division. This line asks Orlando to win 5 more games than last year. Nah.
Philadelphia 76ers UNDER 40.5 (5/10)
What did this team ever do to deserve a 500-line on win totals? I mean, really? They played well for 3 weeks last year! They have Joel Embiid, and they have these shiny young players named Simmons and Fultz, and so everyone is pissing on themselves to try to predict how many wins the Sixers are going to lap up this year. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Rookie guards, or, to be more broad, rookie team leaders tend to start a bit of a runaway train situation. Do we think Simmons or Fultz has the NBA knowledge, or can handle the speed of the game enough to propel this team to winning half its games? I do not. They need veteran leadership bad, and Redick isn't the answer. Philly is still slowly churning upward, but not this fast.
Phoenix Suns OVER 28.5 (1/10)
I have no confidence in this bet. I happen to think the Suns start to care just a hair this year, but I have no inside knowledge to back up that type of claim. I just feel like the narrative needs to turn around for a club that has been consistently doing stupid, terrible, idiotic things from the front office. Bad trades, bad returns, overloading one position while sacrificing others. It's like the Suns management was drafting a fantasy team and didn't have to worry about how any of these guys would play WITH ONE ANOTHER. And now they're stuck with a pair of older guys on bigger contracts that want to win a couple games and about 25 rookies or sophs that don't know how to win a game. They'll be fun to watch, but who knows when they turn a good game effort into a W. I only picked the over because I think they land on 29.
Portland Trailblazers OVER 42.5 (6/10)
42.5 is actually not a bad number from Vegas, but I have faith that this Blazers team found a little something at the tail end of the 2016-17 season, and they've just bottled it up and are waiting to unleash it this year. I expect a quick start, and that's a great way to get toward the number. Plus, some of the mega-stud teams in the West dropped back this offseason in a weird power shuffle. Portland and Denver are the two teams ready to make a leap. They might even see this number and use it as fodder. NurkAlert, Dame and CJ are a solid grouping. I wish they'd get a PF that can actually help the cause - that could push them into near-contender category.
Sacramento Kings OVER 28.5 (3/10)
I'm going on my good buddy Aaron Bruski's call on this one. This team is a clusterf*** of weird mismatched pieces, but there's some sweet young talent and maybe with a few older cats in town they can finally turn a small corner.
San Antonio Spurs OVER 54.5 (5/10)
The Spurs won 61 games last year with their best player missing 10. Pau Gasol missed almost 2 months, too, though that was less of a factor. Give me 75 games with Kawhi Leonard on the floor, and this team can hit 60 again. It's almost like because the Spurs didn't trade for a megastar, everyone forgot how good they are. Advanced stats show that despite LMA's decline on the offensive side, the team is still better defensively with him on the floor, and Pop is still Pop. Patty Mills is another guy that folks sleep on. The low line in a head-scratcher. I'd offer another note: the NBA season has been stretched by one extra week this year, thanks to players' desires in the CBA. This should help with nagging injuries and healthy rest games. Pop will still bench guys, but it may be less, and that can only help the winning cause.
Toronto Raptors OVER 48.5 (4.5/10)
I could cut and paste the Spurs write-up. This team won 51 games last year, and Kyle Lowry missed 20. They only had Serge Ibaka for the last 25. There's no reason to think Toronto gets worse. PJ Tucker is gone, but he was only with the team for the final 45 days, anyway. The main core is still there, and this team still feels like they need to prove something. Toronto feels slighted by the Boston love. They'll be almost as angry as Cleveland.
Utah Jazz OVER 40.5 (7/10)
Gordon Hayward left, so, again, the sky must be falling. It's not, friends. Utah is still a really good basketball team. They'll have some issues finding points not infrequently, but Rudy Gobert is a top-3 defensive player in the NBA, Ricky Rubio is a really interesting new fit on a team that'll need a point guard to get people easier looks, and wings like Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Iso Joe will be tasked with putting the ball through the orange thing. And hey, maybe Derrick Favors is healthy, or even 80%. This team isn't going to fall like the world predicts. They won 51 games last year, and a 5-6 game drop is more reasonable.
Washington Wizards UNDER 48 (4/10)
I don't think they stay healthy this year. Last season was a nice window. John Wall was terrific, and more interestingly, Bradley Beal played in most of his team's games, and put up big time scoring numbers. The Wizards stayed almost the same as last year, a season when, at basically max health, they won 49 games. Someone is going to miss 10-15 games and it's going to cost this team 2-3 games. They'll get to 46, and will still make some noise in the East, but 49 or 50 is a couple too many. Call me when this team doesn't start Wall, Beal, Porter, Kieff and Gorty.