Thanks to Mike, AWR, DMF, TLF & 312 for stopping by. BOL this evening.
Lots to like about the Jets tonight. First and foremost is the fact that I have WPG ranked 14 spots higher than STL. That means I have 45c of value on the Jets at the current number. I'm kicking myself for not grabbing this 10c cheaper this morning. Still plenty of meat left on the bone, though. WPG ranks higher in 12/15 inputs. Their avg rank across all 15 inputs is 13th while STL's is 22nd. WPG ranks in the top half in 8/15 while STL does in 3/15. WPG ranks in the top 10 in 5/15 while STL does in 0/15. So, I would play this blindly based on the line alone but the more I look into things, the more I like the Jets. Over the L9 months, only BOS has a better record as a favorite than WPG's 17-4 (+21.1% ROI) mark. The Jets have won 12 of their L13 as a favorite and they're 8-1 this season when favored. WPG has historically been very good as short faves vs losing teams. In database history, the Jets are 41-24 (+17.2% ROI) as a favorite under -130 vs teams with a WP<50. Since the beginning of last season, WPG is 11-1 (+51.2% ROI) as a road favorite vs a losing team. This is clearly a spot where the Jets have excelled in recent times. This does not look like a good spot for the Blues. I just can't ignore the fact that STL has conceded at least 4 goals in EIGHT straight games. That's got to be approaching record territory. They've given up 41 goals in those 8 games. With the Jets scoring 5+ in 5 of their L6, it could be a long night for the Blues. STL is 1-7 this season when their line is within 35c of a PK. All 7 losses were by 2+ goals and they gave up an avg 4.5 goals in these games.
Winnipeg (-125)