Ive never really thought about it, because I can take -1 PLs, but just did a some quick math to see how it would work. I guess it would come down to finding historical data as you mentioned for % of wins that are by only 1 point.
Do you have access to a book that allows -1 lines? I have a few books where I can basically choose my puck line. If I run this scenario for the Pens/Isles game tonight (picked this because it is currently a -108 ML for either to win).
Pens -1.5 = +235
Isles +1.5 = -286
If the Pens win by 1, You lose -.65u
Isles W, Lose -.65u
Pens by 2+, Win +1.35u
OR, take just Pens -1 PL +163
Pens Lose by 1 = Push
Isles W = -1u
Pens win by 2 = +1.63u
I think Id prefer the -1PL. If you go to OT, you have a chance at a push. Where as in the 1st scenario, OT is a lost bet no matter what. And I will give up the risk of -.35u loss to get the gain of an extra +.3u on the Win, as well as a chance at a push. I hope that makes sense. I think it just depends on your personal preference for risk/reward. Willing to lose more in a single bet? You scenario guarantees a lower loss, but increases your chances of loss because there is no push option, and also offers a smaller win.
But that only applies if you have access to -1 PLs. I generally use Will Hill or Rivers for these lines, but I know that DK also has them. I have 3 off shores (MyBookie, Bookmaker, Bovada), and it doesn't look like any of them offer -1s. Surprising, because Bovada seems to offer every damn thing else.
Hope that helps and makes sense,