Unknown said:
to me I was managing risk. Can anyone break this down for me. I bet $200 on the Rays @ +103. I bet $50 bucks on over 2.5. If Oakland loses 0-1 I win $150. If Oakland wins 2-1 I win $180. If Oakland ties and Tampa wins 2-1 I win $206 + $180 = $386? When is it good to hedge, or is there any value in hedging?
Rules of thumb to hedge. When you are setting up a hedge. When it is life altering money. Or when the hedge bet is +EV by itself. Your over play was a -EV wager. The true # was +410ish. Glad you hit both wagers but it was a bad play. You devalued your original equity (a +EV wager at +103) by 25%. If the game ended 1-0, which had about a 80.39% to happen, your original bet would have cut your profits down by 25%. Not a good long term strategy.
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Yeah but because he could win both ways it wasn't terrible. I've seen far worse hedges in my time.
[/quote]But still -EV. Which by definition is a long term losing strategy. Not to mention if Oak won he still didn't cover his +EV wager ( i feel square as hell typing that) so he wasn't guaranteed a profit and thus not a hedge.