The 3* Play is a CFB total on Tuesday. A note re: Grading and pregame: At pregame RJ has always emphasized to me that when in doubt, be conservative. As an example, the SA Spurs -8 play was graded a push, despite Bookmaker and several other books having -7.5 all day long on my Friday 3*. Despite that, the majority of Books had the game -8, and that is what we released it at, and graded it at.
I know there ARE some rare game where the line moves after we release it, and when the game lands on the release number, it can bite you when you get in late. We always emphasize, try to get in ASAP when a game is released, to give yourself the best chance to win.
I do my very best to beat the number, and to get the plays out in a timely manner. Sometimes the market moves, and it makes a good play a very good play. That happened in the Broncos game today, where a good bet on Denver +6.5 turned into a better bet +7, and finally a great bet at post +7.5. I am happy I waited to release it until 12:20 today, however, I regret in my write-up not advising to wait until post to bet it..........I was VERY surprised that line went all the way to +7.5 today.
Note, in my own betting, and at pregame.com, I try to avoid releasing plays early at -3.5, -7.5, +2.5 and +6.5 spreads. The reason is that "3" and "7" are so valuable, that if there is a chance a game might move onto those numbers, it is almost always worth waiting.
So by example, even if i really like a game +2.5, I almost never will release early on it, as it is no big deal if it starts dropping (and I can take it +2), but it is SO much better at +3 that it is typically worth it to ride it out, and hope for a line move onto the key number, when you are just off it.
Therefore, even though I thought the Denver +6.5 line would fall, I still waited on it holding out hope it might go up to +7.
Quick note on MNF: With every -3 or higher favorite winning, and favorites going 6-1-1 ATS, I am SURE books have big pending parlay liabilities on the Saints. Further, all those betting NFL favorites, are likely to land on the Saints as well. If you like the Saints, I suggest you grab the -2.5-120 (or -3-100) right now, as the line likely goes up Monday. If you like the Dog, I would bet this closer to post.