President Obama has gained a larger lead in the most recent Electoral College map projection, winning with 333 electoral votes compared to 205 for Mitt Romney. The last update gave Obama 314 votes compared to 223 votes for Mitt Romney. The change entirely is attributed to a projected victory for President Obama in Ohio, where new polls show him with a small lead.
The projection is made using the most recent polls linked below, while also giving consideration to the historical trends of each state and other polls released over the last two weeks. Special emphasis is given to how the state voted in 2008. For instance, the most recent projection has Mitt Romney winning North Carolina even though the most recent poll has Obama winning the state by one point. The projection is based mostly on other polls from objective pollsters which show Romney with a lead in the state. It is also worth noting that many of the most recent polls come from Rasmussen Reports, an organization that has given Republican candidates a misleading three-to-five point edge in their polls as recently as 2010.
The polls below show which Republican candidate (Romney or not) currently polls best against President Obama in a given state. Since the last update, new polls have been released in the states of Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire, California, Utah, Ohio, Oregon, Massachusetts, Virgnia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Arizona.
A prediction of the 2012 map based on the new polls can be seen to the left. Follow me on Twitter or Facebook to receive continual updates up through Election Day.
A state is called “safe” based on the 2008 results, but could still be competitive in 2012, based on demographic changes, among other factors. For example, Michigan is put in the “safe Obama state” category based on 2008 results, but looks to be more competitive in 2012 given the current polling. President Obama’s poll number is listed first, followed by the Republican challenger’s number. Further analysis follows the tables below.
Safe Obama States
State, Electoral Votes, Result in 2008, Latest Polling
California 55, 61%-37%, 55%-37% (Romney) (Field 7/6)
Connecticut 7, 61%-38%, 48%-36% (Romney) (Franklin and Marshall 6/6)
Delaware 3, 62%-37%
Hawaii 4, 72%-27%
Illinois 20, 62%-37%
Maine 4, 58%-40%, 48%-34% (Romney) (WBUR/MassINC 6/18)
Maryland 10, 62%-37%
Massachusetts 11, 62%-36%, 55%-39% (Romney) (PPP 6/27)
Michigan 16, 57%-41%, 47%-43% (Romney) (NBC News/Marist 6/28)
New Hampshire 4, 54%-45%, 45%-45% (Romney) (NBC News/Marist 6/28)
New Jersey 14, 57%-42%, 56%-33% (Romney) (Rutgers-Eagleton 6/14)
New Mexico 5, 57%-42%, 54%-40% (Romney) (PPP 4/25)
New York 29, 63%-36%, 59%-35% (Romney) (Sienna 6/12)
Oregon 7, 57%-41%, 50%-42% (Romney) (PPP 6/26)
Pennsylvania 20, 55%-44%, 45%-39% (Romney) (Quinnipiac 6/26)
Rhode Island 4, 63%-35%
Vermont 3, 68%-31%, 59-28 (Castelton College 5/22)
Washington 12, 58%-41%, 54%-41% (Romney) (PPP 6/20)
Washington D.C. 3, 93%-7%
Wisconsin 10, 51%-38%, 49%-43% (Romney) (Marquette 6/20)
*Nebraska's 2nd Dist. 1, 50%-49% 49-37% (Romney) (PPP)
Total 242
Safe Republican States
Alabama 9, 39%-61%
Alaska 3, 38%-60%
Arizona 11, 45%-54% 41%-54% (Romney) (Rasmussen 6/27)
Arkansas 6, 39%-59%
Idaho 4, 36%-61%
Kansas 6, 42%-57%
Kentucky 8, 41%-58%
Louisiana 8, 39%-59%
Mississippi 6, 43%-56%, 40%-46% (Romney) (PPP)
Nebraska 4, 42%-57%, 39%-53% (Romney) (Rasmussen 5/18)
North Dakota 3, 45%-53%, 39%-52% (Mason-Dixon 6/11)
Oklahoma 7, 34%-66%, 27%-62% (Romney) (Sooner Poll 5/21)
South Carolina 9, 45%-54%, 45%-42% (Romney) (NBC News/Marist 12/11)
South Dakota 3, 45%-53%
Tennessee 11, 42%-57%, 41%-48% (Romney) (PPP)
Texas 38, 44%-55%, 42%-50% (Romney) (PPP)
Utah 6, 34%-63%, 26%-68% (Huntsman) (Deseret News 6/25)
West Virginia 5, 43%-56%, 37%-50% (Romney) (PPP)
Wyoming 3, 33%-65%
Total 150
Swing States
Colorado 9, 54%-45%, 47%-43% (Romney) (WeAskAmerica 6/26)
Florida 29, 51%-48%, 46%-45% (Romney) (WeAskAmerica 7/3)
Georgia 16, 47%-52%, 40%-52% (Romney) (Insider Advantage 5/24)
Indiana 11, 50%-49%, 40-49% (Howey-Depauw 4/6)
Iowa 6, 54%-45%, 46%-44% (Romney) (WeAskAmerica 6/20)
Minnesota 10, 54%-45%, 54%-39% (Romney) (PPP 6/7)
Missouri 10, 49%-50%, 42%-49% (Romney) (Rasmussen 6/8)
Montana 3, 47%-50%, 42-51% (Romney) (Rasmussen 6/20)
Nevada 6, 55%-43%, 48%-42% (Romney) (PPP 6/13)
North Carolina 15, 50%-49%, 47%-46% (Romney) (PPP 7/9)
Ohio 18, 46%-42%, 47%-38% (Romney) (Quinnipiac 6//27)
Virginia 13, 53%-47%, 50%-42% (Romney) (PPP 7/9)
Total 146