Tony George said:
There were reasons I am sure to look at both sides in that game.....I do not think other cappers here are suckers...quite the contrary, but ....simply put Dallas cannot be trusted laying points right now..in MY opinion....Romo has no help..that is why he threw it 60 times..cannot win a NFL game throwing it 50-60 times a game..never works out.
Shanahan a better coach, and Skins were playing with 3 time revenge. I pushed on Houston and TCU and the Skins won outright as dogs. Surely helped me digest the Tukery better with a Skins win after Houston pushed (I put that game out on Tuesday)...actually thought Detroit money might come in and get it to -2.5.....no such luck..
Glad you guys had a good day..let's do it some more the next 3 days!!
Actually that wasn't the context at all I was using with the term "sucker's for.." Tony, and I'll take responsibility for the lack of clarity there. What I meant was that a lot of them tend to easily fall 'head over heels' for dogs with a line of +3.5 or higher, and tend to get blinded by some of the harsh risk realities of the wager (like the ones you & I both pointed out), all under the auspicious of the term "value" - a HIGHLY, HIGHLY overused word by many in the industry.
However THIS TIME, when they absolutely SHOULD have been all over WAS +3.5 for a plethora of reasons, they jump ship and take DAL -3.5! Stunning! I was sickened to see how many cappers CHARGED for this absolutely attrocious play...if ANYTHING, you make it a free pick - you don't CHARGE MONEY for Romo (as you stated yourself, their ATS record is a joke). And Romo IS the leader on this team, and I hold him personally accountable for many of their losses due to his horrible decision making and bad judgement at the most inopportune times.
I'm sorry, but the angle that many of them used - that Romo "has never lost a home game in November", and "is 5-0 on Thanksgiving weekend", is JUST as fundamentally flawed as taking the Eagles because Andy Reid was 13-0 off of a bye. EVERY situation is unique, and must be judged on it's OWN individual merrits.
Stats in my opinion are the least important element of handicapping, and should ONLY be looked at LAST, as they can otherwise easily corrupt your judgement. If your prior chemistry/momentum/motivation analyses' totally points to one team, but the stats totally point to another, you should either tease your original side, or pass on the game entirely. Like I said, too many 'stat-whores' yesterday, and it angers me that this pick was sold for money...
Keep up the good work Tony...I like the way you approach your NFL picks - I tend to see eye-to-eye with you on most of the key matchups...best regards, -v